2141 Blue John Rd · Burnside, KY 42519

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1970 0.56 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 3-bedroom home with an attached 2-car garage located in a rural setting near a boat ramp. One bedroom features a private exterior entrance, offering flexibility for a variety of uses such as guest space, office, or additional living area. Home previously had a wood-burning stove, with setup in place for potential reinstallation. Convenient location with access to outdoor recreation and lake activities.

Key facts

• 0.56 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.0% in Burnside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#141 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pulaski County (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #17 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.47%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $57,234
• Equity at exit: $80,405

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $151,764
• Equity at exit: $140,140

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42519

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,547 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $759/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,076

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    price $139,000 410-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    Nice 3-bedroom home with an attached 2-car garage located in a rural setting near a boat ramp. One bedroom features a private exterior entrance, offering flexibility for a variety of uses such as guest space, office, or additional living area. Home previously had a wood-burning stove, with setup in place for potential reinstallation. Convenient location with access to outdoor recreation and lake activities.

17. 2026-03-09
    listed $145,000 Active 410-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    Nice 3-bedroom home with an attached 2-car garage located in a rural setting near a boat ramp. One bedroom features a private exterior entrance, offering flexibility for a variety of uses such as guest space, office, or additional living area. Home previously had a wood-burning stove, with setup in place for potential reinstallation. Convenient location with access to outdoor recreation and lake activities.

18. 2025-08-17
    historical
19. 2025-05-28
    price $155,000
20. 2025-02-17
    listed $159,900 Active
21. 2023-06-28
    soldstatus $105,000 Closed
22. 2023-06-08
    status Pending
23. 2023-04-28
    price $115,000
24. 2023-02-20
    listed $120,000 Active
25. 2003-11-07
    soldstatus $47,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $759 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,195 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$436/yr (+$36/mo · 57.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$759
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,485
• − Management: −$1,485
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $2,312
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$555
• After-tax cash flow: $3,911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pulaski County
• NCES district ID: 2104950
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,366
• Composite: 39.69/100
• National rank: #3906
• State rank: #17 of 165 in KY

Livability — Burnside

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,800

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,414 people
• By 2030: 65,828 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 65,972 · +0.9%
• By 2050: 65,108 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 61,647 · -5.8%
• By 2100: 53,613 · -18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.2) · D 16.9% · R 82.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -55.4pp · 2024: -65.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.2 2020: R+62.7 2016: R+66.7 2012: R+60.5 2008: R+55.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Current HPI: 358.2137
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+192.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $139,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $145,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-08-17 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $155,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listed $159,900 ImagineMLS
• 2023-06-28 Sold (MLS) $105,000 ImagineMLS
• 2023-06-08 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2023-04-28 Price Changed $115,000 ImagineMLS
• 2023-02-20 Listed $120,000 ImagineMLS
• 2003-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $759 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.