7777 W Rollin Acres Rd · Grape Creek, TX 76901

$365,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,625 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 289 Days on market

Built 1980 10 ac lot $139/sqft · 50% below area ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUGE Price Change. Take a look. This is a great 10+ acre property. It has partially been redone inside, but needs to be finished. The possibilities are endless. Huge den, office and extra room upstairs as well as a half bath. There are 2 large shipping containers with a carport between them. Many amenities. Take a look and see if this can be your next homestead. All carpet has been removed. Some vinyl flooring and some laminate. 4th bedroom is upstairs.

Key facts

• 10.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-870 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (42.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (46.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (46.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.6% in Grape Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#545 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grape Creek ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #675 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Grape Creek Pri (316 students, 74% FRL); Grape Creek Middle (math 18% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,360 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 270 students, 60% FRL); Grape Creek H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 308 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 289 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $135k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,153 (46.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 289 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.22%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $802,331
• List price: $365,000
• Delta: -54.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $148,895
• Equity at exit: $328,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $494,649
• Equity at exit: $709,115

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76901

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,942 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,055/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-870

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,043

Max offer price $211,252

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-664	-5% $-767	+0% $-870	+5% $-974	+10% $-1,077
Rent	-10% $-1,024	-5% $-947	+0% $-870	+5% $-794	+10% $-717
Rate	-1.0pp $-687	-0.5pp $-777	base $-870	+0.5pp $-965	+1.0pp $-1,061

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $365,000 Pending 289 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $365,000 Active 288 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $365,000 Active 287 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $365,000 Active 286 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $365,000 Active 285 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $365,000 Active 284 DOM
7. 2026-04-26
   price $365,000 457-char remark

   Show marketing remark (457 chars)

   HUGE Price Change. Take a look. This is a great 10+ acre property. It has partially been redone inside, but needs to be finished. The possibilities are endless. Huge den, office and extra room upstairs as well as a half bath. There are 2 large shipping containers with a carport between them. Many amenities. Take a look and see if this can be your next homestead. All carpet has been removed. Some vinyl flooring and some laminate. 4th bedroom is upstairs.

8. 2026-02-12
   price $380,000 457-char remark

   Show marketing remark (457 chars)

   HUGE Price Change. Take a look. This is a great 10+ acre property. It has partially been redone inside, but needs to be finished. The possibilities are endless. Huge den, office and extra room upstairs as well as a half bath. There are 2 large shipping containers with a carport between them. Many amenities. Take a look and see if this can be your next homestead. All carpet has been removed. Some vinyl flooring and some laminate. 4th bedroom is upstairs.

9. 2026-02-05
   status Active 457-char remark

   Show marketing remark (457 chars)

   HUGE Price Change. Take a look. This is a great 10+ acre property. It has partially been redone inside, but needs to be finished. The possibilities are endless. Huge den, office and extra room upstairs as well as a half bath. There are 2 large shipping containers with a carport between them. Many amenities. Take a look and see if this can be your next homestead. All carpet has been removed. Some vinyl flooring and some laminate. 4th bedroom is upstairs.

10. 2026-01-08
    price $425,000 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    HUGE Price Change. Take a look. This is a great 10+ acre property. It has partially been redone inside, but needs to be finished. The possibilities are endless. Huge den, office and extra room upstairs as well as a half bath. There are 2 large shipping containers with a carport between them. Many amenities. Take a look and see if this can be your next homestead. All carpet has been removed. Some vinyl flooring and some laminate. 4th bedroom is upstairs.

11. 2025-08-20
    listed $499,900 Active 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    HUGE Price Change. Take a look. This is a great 10+ acre property. It has partially been redone inside, but needs to be finished. The possibilities are endless. Huge den, office and extra room upstairs as well as a half bath. There are 2 large shipping containers with a carport between them. Many amenities. Take a look and see if this can be your next homestead. All carpet has been removed. Some vinyl flooring and some laminate. 4th bedroom is upstairs.

12. 2018-01-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,055 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,680 · $557/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,624/yr (+$219/mo · 64.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$4,055
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,864
• − Management: −$1,864
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$17,374
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,170
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grape Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821600
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,891
• Composite: 23.6/100
• National rank: #7849
• State rank: #675 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grape Creek

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #545
• US rank: #10581

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tom Green County · 113,188 people
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,831
• Household income: $69,450
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Tom Green County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,110 people
• By 2030: 144,090 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 162,561 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 182,158 · +34.8%
• By 2075: 232,274 · +71.9%
• By 2100: 268,218 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tom Green

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.5% · R 73.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -41.7pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+47.9 2008: R+41.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.96%
• Current HPI: 798.58
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-27.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $365,000 SAAR TX
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $380,000 SAAR TX
• 2026-02-05 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $425,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-08-20 Listed $499,900 SAAR TX
• 2018-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,055 · -17.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.