1864 Everglades Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$258,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,940 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 295 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 6,011 sqft lot $133/sqft · 28% below area Est $356k · 28% under $74/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pristine 2023 Build: Modern Elegance Meets Open-Concept Comfort Experience the luxury of a nearly-new home without the wait of construction. This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence, completed in 2023, is a masterclass in modern design. The heart of the home is a light-filled open concept featuring durable wood-vinyl flooring and a gourmet kitchen that dazzles with crisp white cabinetry and premium granite countertops. The private Owner’s Suite serves as a personal retreat, boasting a deep soaking tub for evening relaxation and an oversized walk-in closet. Outside, your private backyard and covered patio offer the perfect setting for morning coffee or weekend BBQs.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Private backyard
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-750/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (4.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $258k).
• Recommended offer: $227k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Henderson El (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C, #705 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 737 students, 50% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 3349 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 8797% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,095
• List price: $258,000
• Delta: -27.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11326 Helms Trl	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,938 (-0%)	7mo	$419,900	$217	75
1805 Arbor Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,106 (+9%)	2mo	$315,900	$150	71
1834 Sandlin Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,900 (-2%)	0mo	$290,000	$153	66
10083 Highland Prairie Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,019 (+4%)	10mo	$399,000	$198	65
10128 Highland Prairie Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,060 (+6%)	6mo	$425,000	$206	62
11090 Prairie Lakes Ln	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,990 (+3%)	6mo	$440,000	$221	56
1272 Caprock Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,208 (+14%)	13mo	$334,990	$152	52
9934 Stonehearth Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (-9%)	0mo	$399,500	$227	48
13023 Highland Ct	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,183 (+12%)	9mo	$409,000	$187	48
1276 Meridian Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,162 (+11%)	5mo	$315,000	$146	44
1604 Cedar Crest Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,060 (+6%)	11mo	$355,000	$172	44
1216 Kensington Dr	0.54mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,221 (+14%)	4mo	$335,000	$151	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-49,710
• Equity at exit: $38,469

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-63,974
• Equity at exit: $22,307

Cash invested: $72,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 67 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.8 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $339,900 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 113 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +12.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 3349
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,689 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax from tax record: −$653 /mo · $7,832/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,769

Max offer price $246,953

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $84	-5% $10	+0% $-63	+5% $-136	+10% $-209
Rent	-10% $-275	-5% $-169	+0% $-63	+5% $44	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $3	base $-63	+0.5pp $-129	+1.0pp $-197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,500
• Closing costs: $7,740
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1878 Everglades Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1935	$2,450	$1.27	10d	1	0.03mi
1870 Purtis Creek Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1925	$2,999	$1.56	114d	1	0.05mi
1874 Purtis Creek Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2212	$3,090	$1.40	71d	1	0.06mi
1805 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,650	$1.45	14d	1	0.06mi
1888 Everglades Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1961	$3,235	$1.65	135d	1	0.08mi
1869 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2300	$2,819	$1.23	35d	1	0.08mi
1871 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2060	$2,550	$1.24	63d	1	0.08mi
1875 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2448	$2,450	$1.00	10d	1	0.08mi
1855 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1912	$2,900	$1.52	71d	1	0.09mi
1852 Arbor Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2162	$2,315	$1.07	10d	1	0.09mi
1837 McCree St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,600	$1.43	10d	1	0.11mi
1876 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2058	$2,750	$1.34	128d	1	0.11mi
1816 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2204	$2,350	$1.07	184d	1	0.11mi
1816 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2204	$2,400	$1.09	10d	1	0.12mi
1816 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2204	$2,400	$1.09	43d	1	0.12mi
1833 Purtis Creek Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2241	$2,750	$1.23	129d	1	0.12mi
1843 McCree St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1882	$2,575	$1.37	6d	1	0.13mi
1804 McCree St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2346	$2,600	$1.11	6d	1	0.13mi
1820 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,245	$1.18	184d	1	0.13mi
1836 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,250	$1.17	10d	1	0.15mi
1836 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,200	$1.16	74d	1	0.15mi
1820 Purtis Creek Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2140	$2,600	$1.21	86d	1	0.15mi
1820 Purtis Creek Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2140	$2,800	$1.31	65d	1	0.15mi
1829 Arbor Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2171	$2,350	$1.08	50d	1	0.15mi
1829 Arbor Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2171	$2,345	$1.08	10d	1	0.15mi
1816 Purtis Creek Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2601	$2,800	$1.08	10d	1	0.16mi
1816 Purtis Creek Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2601	$2,800	$1.08	17d	1	0.16mi
1848 McCree St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,450	$1.27	184d	1	0.16mi
1817 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2331	$2,950	$1.27	148d	1	0.17mi
1853 McCree St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,450	$1.34	6d	1	0.17mi
1829 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,250	$1.23	135d	1	0.17mi
1832 Pueblo St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2060	$2,120	$1.03	135d	1	0.19mi
1862 McCree St Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1935	$2,450	$1.27	10d	1	0.22mi
1736 Everglades Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2333	$2,600	$1.11	71d	1	0.32mi
1432 Lawnview Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2252	$2,599	$1.15	117d	1	0.41mi
1432 Lawnview Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2110	$2,599	$1.23	57d	1	0.41mi
10264 Fireside Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2195	$2,700	$1.23	0d	1	0.43mi
1532 Bushman Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2321	$2,495	$1.07	112d	1	0.50mi
1656 Pegasus Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2469	$3,100	$1.26	10d	1	0.53mi
1656 Deerpath Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2202	$3,800	$1.73	117d	1	0.53mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $258,000 Active 295 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $258,000 Active 294 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $258,000 Active 293 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $258,000 Active 292 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $258,000 Active 291 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $258,000 Active 289 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $258,000 Active 288 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $258,000 Active 287 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $258,000 Active 286 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $258,000 Active 285 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $258,000 Active 284 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $258,000 Active 283 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $258,000 Active 282 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $258,000 Active 281 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $258,000 Active 280 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $258,000 Active 279 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $258,000 Active 278 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $258,000 Active 277 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $258,000 Active 276 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $258,000 Active 275 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $258,000 Active 274 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $258,000 Active 273 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $258,000 Active 272 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $258,000 Active 271 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $258,000 Active 270 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $258,000 Active 269 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $258,000 Active 268 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $258,000 Active 267 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $258,000 Active 266 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $258,000 Active 265 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    price $258,000 Active 264 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $295,000 Active 264 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $295,000 Active 263 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $295,000 Active 262 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $295,000 Active 261 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $295,000 Active 260 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $295,000 Active 259 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 258 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 257 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    price $295,000 Active 255 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $300,000 Active 255 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $300,000 Active 254 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $300,000 Active 253 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $300,000 Active 252 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $300,000 Active 251 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $300,000 Active 250 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $300,000 Active 249 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $300,000 Active 248 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $300,000 Active 247 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $300,000 Active 246 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,832 · $653/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,832 · $653/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,452
• − Property taxes: −$7,832
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,582
• − Management: −$2,582
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$7,505
• Taxable loss: −$4,858
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,166
• After-tax cash flow: $416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,700–$29,100 screening

This nearly-new home offers modern elegance and open-concept comfort, with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. Potential buyers will appreciate the fresh paint, landscaping, and smart home features that can be added to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers. ↑
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Energy-efficient windows can reduce energy costs and increase property value. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract buyers looking for smart home features. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Henderson El C TX #705/4,322 Nat'l #10,986/41,679 Middle Warren Middle D+ TX #443/1,662 Nat'l #4,335/14,009 High Forney H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Rental Removed $2,700 NTREIS
• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $2,700 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listed for Rent $2,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $345,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+46.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,832 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.