Cumberland - 2 Bedrooms Plan · Dana, NC 28731

$207,100

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 540 sqft · SingleFamily · 571 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Gated community
• Open space
• Floating island

Tags

• CUMBERLAND FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN SPACE
• FLOATING ISLAND
• OPTIONAL CENTRAL LOFT
• BUILT-IN BEDROOM FURNITURE
• GATED COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing status
• Financial info: List price: $207,100

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service; Heat pump; Wall unit cooling
• Home design: Plan: Cumberland - 2 Bedrooms; Single-story (plan)
• Construction: Living area approximately 540
• Exterior features: Metal roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-based layout)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $207k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($833/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Dana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#511 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Henderson County Schools (suburban): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #64 of 178 in NC (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Upward Elementary (math 31% / reading 28%, grade F, #975 of 1,410 statewide, top 71%, 413 students, 83% FRL); Flat Rock Middle (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #222 of 475 statewide, top 49%, 706 students, 70% FRL); East Henderson High (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B-, #179 of 535 statewide, top 34%, 965 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 46% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,534 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henderson County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 571 days — a 12% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $182,248 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 571 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.44%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-29,111
• Equity at exit: $30,879

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-19,543
• Equity at exit: $17,906

Cash invested: $57,988 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28731

• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,086
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$259 /mo · $3,106/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,812

Max offer price $207,100

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $213	-5% $141	+0% $69	+5% $-2	+10% $-74
Rent	-10% $-81	-5% $-6	+0% $69	+5% $144	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $122	base $69	+0.5pp $16	+1.0pp $-39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,775
• Closing costs: $6,213
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47 Hill Branch Rd Flat Rock, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,900	$1.78	15d	54	1.28mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $207,100 Active 571 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $207,100 Active 568 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $207,100 Active 567 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $207,100 Active 566 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $207,100 Active 565 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $207,100 Active 563 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $207,100 Active 562 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $207,100 Active 560 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $207,100 Active 559 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $207,100 Active 558 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $207,100 Active 557 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $207,100 Active 554 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $207,100 Active 553 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $207,100 Active 552 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $207,100 Active 551 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $207,100 Active 550 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $207,100 Active 549 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,601
• − Property taxes: −$3,106
• − Insurance: −$1,036
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − Depreciation: −$6,025
• Taxable loss: −$2,621
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$629
• After-tax cash flow: $1,462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702100
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,101
• Composite: 42.5/100
• National rank: #3206
• State rank: #64 of 178 in NC

Livability — Dana

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #511
• US rank: #18764

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,075

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,075 people
• By 2030: 129,690 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 139,898 · +12.8%
• By 2050: 148,298 · +19.5%
• By 2075: 163,980 · +32.2%
• By 2100: 166,962 · +34.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 42.1% · R 56.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.5pp toward D · 2008: -21.0pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+27.9 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.82%
• Current HPI: 188.1389
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B