5903 10th St Unit 3 · Lubbock, TX 79416

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,592 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 2000 Good condition 5,750 sqft lot $113/sqft · at area comps Est $179k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this fresh and clean 3/2/2 single family home in North Ridge neighborhood in Frenship school district! The well planned layout features a spacious living room with a cozy fireplace that opens directly into the galley-style kitchen and dining area. Spacious bedrooms, his and her closets in master bath and covered patio are added comfort. Every major system has been addressed for ultimate peace of mind: NEW roof, NEW water heater, and a 2018 HVAC. Positioned perfectly for easy access to the medical district, LCU, and local shopping and just minutes from Texas Tech, this clean, comfortable, and functional property offers an unbeatable combination of location and price. Whether you're starting your homeownership journey or looking for a high-performing rental, this is a smart, solid opportunity!

Key facts

• 5,750 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2000

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-664/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,368 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.32%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,215
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: 0.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6116 10th St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+2%)	14mo	$195,000	$119	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-33,840
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-38,703
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 464
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,504 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $171,892

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5839 7th St Unit D Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,050	$0.91	43d	1	0.17mi
5833 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,125	$0.97	21d	1	0.18mi
5846 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,145	$0.99	21d	1	0.19mi
5834 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,125	$0.94	21d	1	0.21mi
5863 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,325	$1.19	21d	1	0.24mi
6112 7th Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,375	$1.12	21d	1	0.26mi
6112 7th Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,350	$1.10	43d	1	0.26mi
6111 10th Dr Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1917	$1,649	$0.86	21d	1	0.29mi
6106 9th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1361	$1,350	$0.99	43d	1	0.32mi
1107 Ironton Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	43d	1	0.39mi
6101 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,375	$1.11	13d	1	0.39mi
310 Homestead Ave Unit 12 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1571	$1,595	$1.02	13d	1	0.44mi
310 Homestead Ave Unit 17 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1571	$1,595	$1.02	44d	1	0.44mi
310 Homestead Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1783	$1,995	$1.12	43d	1	0.44mi
310 Homestead Ave Unit 4 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1783	$1,795	$1.01	13d	1	0.44mi
6106 17th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,400	$0.88	43d	1	0.54mi
221 Grover Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,295	$1.09	13d	1	0.55mi
5522 13th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	13d	1	0.58mi
5603 15th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,000	$1.28	13d	1	0.60mi
5503 10th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,500	$1.14	21d	1	0.66mi
403 Kirby Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$695	$0.39	43d	1	0.67mi
5501 9th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$1,800	$0.96	21d	1	0.67mi
5518 16th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,700	$1.04	13d	1	0.68mi
1106 Kline Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,350	$1.06	21d	1	0.69mi
5540 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,350	$1.08	21d	1	0.69mi
204 Genoa Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	13d	1	0.73mi
6336 9th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,650	$1.12	21d	1	0.73mi
601 Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1570	$1,400	$0.89	21d	1	0.74mi
5519 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,200	$0.95	21d	1	0.80mi
5519 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,200	$0.95	43d	1	0.80mi
6505 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$1,600	$0.98	13d	1	0.86mi
5713 1st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,600	$1.07	13d	1	0.86mi
6504 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	44d	1	0.86mi
5435 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,400	$1.17	21d	1	0.86mi
5442 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,349	$1.05	13d	1	0.87mi
5417 17th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2198	$1,600	$0.73	43d	1	0.89mi
6513 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,750	$1.02	43d	1	0.89mi
6521 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1865	$1,795	$0.96	43d	1	0.93mi
5424 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,150	$0.95	43d	1	0.93mi
6040 24th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1699	$1,600	$0.94	43d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 813-char remark

   Show marketing remark (813 chars)

   Welcome to this fresh and clean 3/2/2 single family home in North Ridge neighborhood in Frenship school district! The well planned layout features a spacious living room with a cozy fireplace that opens directly into the galley-style kitchen and dining area. Spacious bedrooms, his and her closets in master bath and covered patio are added comfort. Every major system has been addressed for ultimate peace of mind: NEW roof, NEW water heater, and a 2018 HVAC. Positioned perfectly for easy access to the medical district, LCU, and local shopping and just minutes from Texas Tech, this clean, comfortable, and functional property offers an unbeatable combination of location and price. Whether you're starting your homeownership journey or looking for a high-performing rental, this is a smart, solid opportunity!

2. 2026-05-10
   price $179,900 813-char remark

   Show marketing remark (813 chars)

   Welcome to this fresh and clean 3/2/2 single family home in North Ridge neighborhood in Frenship school district! The well planned layout features a spacious living room with a cozy fireplace that opens directly into the galley-style kitchen and dining area. Spacious bedrooms, his and her closets in master bath and covered patio are added comfort. Every major system has been addressed for ultimate peace of mind: NEW roof, NEW water heater, and a 2018 HVAC. Positioned perfectly for easy access to the medical district, LCU, and local shopping and just minutes from Texas Tech, this clean, comfortable, and functional property offers an unbeatable combination of location and price. Whether you're starting your homeownership journey or looking for a high-performing rental, this is a smart, solid opportunity!

3. 2026-03-26
   listed $189,000 Active 813-char remark

   Show marketing remark (813 chars)

   Welcome to this fresh and clean 3/2/2 single family home in North Ridge neighborhood in Frenship school district! The well planned layout features a spacious living room with a cozy fireplace that opens directly into the galley-style kitchen and dining area. Spacious bedrooms, his and her closets in master bath and covered patio are added comfort. Every major system has been addressed for ultimate peace of mind: NEW roof, NEW water heater, and a 2018 HVAC. Positioned perfectly for easy access to the medical district, LCU, and local shopping and just minutes from Texas Tech, this clean, comfortable, and functional property offers an unbeatable combination of location and price. Whether you're starting your homeownership journey or looking for a high-performing rental, this is a smart, solid opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,444
• − Management: −$1,444
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$3,752
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$900
• After-tax cash flow: $236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3/2 single-family home in North Ridge neighborhood is in good condition with a good roof and HVAC system. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace front door — Improves security and aesthetics
• Rental Clean and maintain HVAC filters — Keeps system running efficiently and reduces utility costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace front door — Improves security and aesthetics ↑
• Rental Clean and maintain HVAC filters — Keeps system running efficiently and reduces utility costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $179,900 LARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $189,000 LARMLS