2403 Airport Rd · Fort Clark Springs, TX 78832

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,812 sqft · Manufactured public records · 675 Days on market

Built 1984 9,583 sqft lot $58/sqft · 45% below area Est $191k · 45% under $100/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Own a home on the Fort Clark Golf Course! Priced to sell, this home is ready for you to make it your own! Sit on your private back deck on the 13th hole and watch the golfers pass through or the wild axis, turkey and whitetail that graze on the fairway.

Key facts

• Private back deck
• Wild axis
• 13th hole

Tags

• ON THE FORT CLARK GOLF COURSE
• PRIVATE BACK DECK
• 13TH HOLE
• WILD AXIS
• TURKEY AND WHITETAIL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-432/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $91k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Fort Clark Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#409 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Brackett ISD (town): math 34% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #363 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Kinney County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 675 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,186 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 675 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.47%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,303
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -45.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
279 Bliss Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,768 (-2%)	13mo	$80,000	$45	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $26,083
• Equity at exit: $63,907

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $79,141
• Equity at exit: $114,122

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78832

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $912 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $744/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $957

Max offer price $98,645

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-6	+0% $-36	+5% $-66	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-108	-5% $-72	+0% $-36	+5% $0	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $17	-0.5pp $-9	base $-36	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-91

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 675 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 673 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 672 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 671 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 670 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 669 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 667 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 666 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 664 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $105,000 Active 663 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 662 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 661 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 657 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 656 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 655 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 654 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 653 DOM
18. 2025-07-15
    status Back on Market 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Own a home on the Fort Clark Golf Course! Priced to sell, this home is ready for you to make it your own! Sit on your private back deck on the 13th hole and watch the golfers pass through or the wild axis, turkey and whitetail that graze on the fairway.

19. 2025-07-11
    historical 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Own a home on the Fort Clark Golf Course! Priced to sell, this home is ready for you to make it your own! Sit on your private back deck on the 13th hole and watch the golfers pass through or the wild axis, turkey and whitetail that graze on the fairway.

20. 2025-06-27
    status Back on Market 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Own a home on the Fort Clark Golf Course! Priced to sell, this home is ready for you to make it your own! Sit on your private back deck on the 13th hole and watch the golfers pass through or the wild axis, turkey and whitetail that graze on the fairway.

21. 2025-05-30
    status Pending 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Own a home on the Fort Clark Golf Course! Priced to sell, this home is ready for you to make it your own! Sit on your private back deck on the 13th hole and watch the golfers pass through or the wild axis, turkey and whitetail that graze on the fairway.

22. 2025-05-11
    historical Active Option 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Own a home on the Fort Clark Golf Course! Priced to sell, this home is ready for you to make it your own! Sit on your private back deck on the 13th hole and watch the golfers pass through or the wild axis, turkey and whitetail that graze on the fairway.

23. 2025-03-20
    price $105,000 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Own a home on the Fort Clark Golf Course! Priced to sell, this home is ready for you to make it your own! Sit on your private back deck on the 13th hole and watch the golfers pass through or the wild axis, turkey and whitetail that graze on the fairway.

24. 2025-01-09
    status Back on Market 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Own a home on the Fort Clark Golf Course! Priced to sell, this home is ready for you to make it your own! Sit on your private back deck on the 13th hole and watch the golfers pass through or the wild axis, turkey and whitetail that graze on the fairway.

25. 2024-11-29
    historical 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Own a home on the Fort Clark Golf Course! Priced to sell, this home is ready for you to make it your own! Sit on your private back deck on the 13th hole and watch the golfers pass through or the wild axis, turkey and whitetail that graze on the fairway.

26. 2024-05-30
    listed $115,000 New 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Own a home on the Fort Clark Golf Course! Priced to sell, this home is ready for you to make it your own! Sit on your private back deck on the 13th hole and watch the golfers pass through or the wild axis, turkey and whitetail that graze on the fairway.

27. 1997-04-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $744 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,178/yr (+$98/mo · 158.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$744
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$875
• − Management: −$875
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$2,213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$531
• After-tax cash flow: $99/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brackett ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811070
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,912
• Composite: 35.28/100
• National rank: #4973
• State rank: #363 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Clark Springs

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #409
• US rank: #8467

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Clark Springs, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,140

Population outlook (Kinney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,487 people
• By 2030: 3,434 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 3,396 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 3,458 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 3,472 · -0.4%
• By 2100: 2,845 · -18.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 45% Two or more races 18% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 42%

Political lean MEDSL · Kinney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.4% · R 74.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.7pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+25.1 2008: R+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.68%
• Current HPI: 119.7891
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-15 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-07-11 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-06-27 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-05-30 Pending — LERA
• 2025-05-11 Contingent — LERA
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $105,000 LERA
• 2025-01-09 Relisted — LERA
• 2024-11-29 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-05-30 Listed $115,000 LERA
• 1997-04-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $744 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.