39 Edison Blvd · Silver Bay, MN 55614

$155,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1954 9,888 sqft lot $161/sqft · at area comps Est $150k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A welcoming three-bedroom, one-bathroom home with a detached garage, ideal for comfortable family living. Conveniently located less than one mile from the local high school and just one block from ATV and snowmobile trails, this property offers the perfect balance of neighborhood convenience and outdoor enjoyment.

Key facts

• Detached garage
• 9,888 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• ATV AND SNOWMOBILE TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (31.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.5% in Silver Bay — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#217 in MN, #4,547 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Superior Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #191 of 301 in MN (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William Kelley Elementary (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #368 of 857 statewide, top 47%, 173 students, 40% FRL); Wm. M. Kelley Secondary (math 50% / reading 64%, grade C, #64 of 471 statewide, top 16%, 173 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 23% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $155k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,755 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.01%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,203
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 3.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Edison Blvd	0.42mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	3mo	$135,000	$141	78
51 Davis Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0	864 (-10%)	3mo	$107,500	$124	71
88 Banks Blvd	0.33mi	3/1.0	864 (-10%)	1mo	$105,000	$122	68
27 James Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	960 (0%)	8mo	$130,000	$135	62
18 Gibson Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,072 (+12%)	14mo	$162,500	$152	62
77 Hays Crk	0.57mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	20mo	$230,000	$240	56
33 Charles Crk	0.49mi	3/1.0	864 (-10%)	14mo	$145,000	$168	49
12 Dodge Ln	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-10%)	18mo	$141,000	$163	49
10 Drake Cr Cir	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-10%)	23mo	$150,000	$174	44
54 Edison Blvd	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,098 (+14%)	22mo	$184,900	$168	43
31 Charles Cr Cir	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-10%)	18mo	$145,000	$168	40
42 Banks Blvd	0.73mi	3/1.0	900 (-6%)	20mo	$163,900	$182	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $77,435
• Equity at exit: $139,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $233,367
• Equity at exit: $301,131

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55614

• Home prices YoY: 11.9%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,068 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $896/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,205

Max offer price $135,794

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21	-5% $-65	+0% $-109	+5% $-153	+10% $-196
Rent	-10% $-193	-5% $-151	+0% $-109	+5% $-67	+10% $-24
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-69	base $-109	+0.5pp $-149	+1.0pp $-190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-03-06
    price $155,000 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    A welcoming three-bedroom, one-bathroom home with a detached garage, ideal for comfortable family living. Conveniently located less than one mile from the local high school and just one block from ATV and snowmobile trails, this property offers the perfect balance of neighborhood convenience and outdoor enjoyment.

17. 2026-03-06
    price $155,000 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    A welcoming three-bedroom, one-bathroom home with a detached garage, ideal for comfortable family living. Conveniently located less than one mile from the local high school and just one block from ATV and snowmobile trails, this property offers the perfect balance of neighborhood convenience and outdoor enjoyment.

18. 2026-02-09
    listed $160,000 Active 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    A welcoming three-bedroom, one-bathroom home with a detached garage, ideal for comfortable family living. Conveniently located less than one mile from the local high school and just one block from ATV and snowmobile trails, this property offers the perfect balance of neighborhood convenience and outdoor enjoyment.

19. 2026-02-09
    listed $160,000 Active 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    A welcoming three-bedroom, one-bathroom home with a detached garage, ideal for comfortable family living. Conveniently located less than one mile from the local high school and just one block from ATV and snowmobile trails, this property offers the perfect balance of neighborhood convenience and outdoor enjoyment.

20. 2018-09-21
    soldstatus $53,000
21. 2018-07-13
    listed $55,000
22. 2015-05-22
    soldstatus $65,000
23. 2014-09-09
    listed $65,000
24. 2007-03-06
    soldstatus $72,000
25. 2007-01-20
    historical
26. 2006-07-20
    listed $75,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $896 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,316 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$420/yr (+$35/mo · 46.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$896
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,025
• − Management: −$1,025
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$4,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$984
• After-tax cash flow: $-320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Superior Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2740740
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,958
• Composite: 37.51/100
• National rank: #4399
• State rank: #191 of 301 in MN

Livability — Silver Bay

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #4547

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Bay, MN
• Population (ZIP): 2,450

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,943 people
• By 2030: 9,437 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 8,326 · -16.3%
• By 2050: 7,365 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 6,008 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 5,038 · -49.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 21% Lithuanian 2% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 47.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.1pp · 2024: 3.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.9 2020: D+3.5 2016: D+2.2 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+22.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.26%
• Current HPI: 490.17
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+104.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $155,000 LSAR
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $155,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Listed $160,000 LSAR
• 2026-02-09 Listed $160,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-21 Sold (MLS) $53,000 LSAR
• 2018-07-13 Listed $55,000 LSAR
• 2015-05-22 Sold (MLS) $65,000 LSAR
• 2014-09-09 Listed $65,000 LSAR
• 2007-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2007-01-20 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-20 Listed $75,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $896 · +187.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.