6111 - 6115 Grigsby Pl · Stockton, CA 95219

$485,000

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,009 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1972 7,344 sqft lot $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Welcome to 6111 & 6115 Grigsby Place! This family-owned duplex features 2 bedrooms and 1 bath on each side, along with a 2-car garage, and a private entrance security gate, all located in the highly desirable Lincoln Village West community. Both units offer dual-pane windows and ceiling fans in the living room, dining area, and both bedrooms. One unit is currently occupied by a dependable long-term tenant, providing immediate rental income. While the property could benefit from some TLC, it offers excellent potential as a value-add investment. Residents enjoy HOA amenities including beautifully maintained common areas, a clubhouse, and a swimming pool during the summer months. Conveni

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Dual-pane windows
• Ceiling fans

Tags

• PRIVATE ENTRANCE SECURITY GATE
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• CEILING FANS
• HOA AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory association with clubhouse and pool; Annual association fee of $660

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener; 4 parking spaces total
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220V electrical service; Cable connected
• Home design: Duplex residential income property; Single-story; House(s) style; Built in 1972
• Construction: Composition roof; Built in 1972
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler system; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units (each unit has 2 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Dual-pane full windows; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $485k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive. Per door: $519/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $485k).
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,705/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($112k/yr) (locally 825% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $136k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $485,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.77%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $369,959
• Equity at exit: $436,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.55×
• Total profit: $1,025,434
• Equity at exit: $942,248

Cash invested: $135,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 21.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,705 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,780/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,198
• Net cashflow: $1,558

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,733

Max offer price $485,000

Occupancy floor 68%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$5,706
Total (3 units)			$5,705

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,250
• Closing costs: $14,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $485,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $485,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $485,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   remarks 695-char remark
5. 2026-06-09
   listed $485,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,780 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,686 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,906/yr (+$159/mo · 107.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,168
• − Property taxes: −$1,780
• − Insurance: −$2,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,477
• − Management: −$5,477
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$14,109
• Taxable income: $11,365
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,728
• After-tax cash flow: $15,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,356
• Composite: 29.66/100
• National rank: #6465
• State rank: #284 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,780 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.