16406 Skeet Ct · Houston, TX 77489

$240,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,221 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1983 9,069 sqft lot Est $262k · 8% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious 2 story, 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car attached garage, lot of windows on an oversized lot in Quail Run Subdivision is a MUST SEE. Perfect for an investor or an owner occupant that isn't afraid of putting in some work. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Cul-de-sac
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• MATURE TREES
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST NOOK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-926/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edgar Glover Jr El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 380 students, 87% FRL); Missouri City Middle (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 963 students, 88% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 35% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 188 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $336 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,078
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16406 Skeet Ct	0.00mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,221 (0%)	1mo	$240,000	$108	92
8338 Blue Quail Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,296 (+3%)	10mo	$229,000	$100	80
8330 Blue Quail Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,113 (-5%)	9mo	$250,000	$118	74
16327 Quail Echo Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,113 (-5%)	4mo	$220,000	$104	67
2110 Pepperglen Ct	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,245 (+1%)	0mo	$230,000	$102	62
710 Beechbend Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,245 (+1%)	6mo	$179,000	$80	62
16323 Quail Echo Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,980 (-11%)	2mo	$269,000	$136	57
2123 Laurel Oak Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,117 (-5%)	11mo	$274,999	$130	48
2119 Summit Meadow Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,066 (-7%)	13mo	$285,000	$138	46
711 Brookford Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,948 (-12%)	6mo	$259,999	$133	44
1426 Cartwright Rd	0.75mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,412 (+9%)	4mo	$275,000	$114	42
8618 Quail Vista Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,980 (-11%)	3mo	$267,000	$135	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-23,637
• Equity at exit: $63,148

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-23,783
• Equity at exit: $70,866

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,174 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$398 /mo · $4,776/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,272

Max offer price $226,362

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $-9	+0% $-77	+5% $-145	+10% $-213
Rent	-10% $-249	-5% $-163	+0% $-77	+5% $9	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-16	base $-77	+0.5pp $-139	+1.0pp $-203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16310 Setter Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,700	$1.02	45d	1	0.10mi
712 Beechbend Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,250	$1.00	22d	1	0.54mi
2222 Mountshire Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2278	$2,700	$1.19	22d	1	0.54mi
2910 Fawn Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,220	$0.95	45d	1	0.87mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	14d	1	1.16mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	1.17mi
507 Whippoorwill Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1970	$1,925	$0.98	45d	1	1.19mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	1.27mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	22d	1	1.33mi
15113 Chasehill Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2286	$2,350	$1.03	45d	1	1.34mi
1935 Poco Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2868	$2,326	$0.81	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-24
   status Active
4. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-09
   price $240,000
6. 2026-01-30
   price $250,000
7. 2025-12-20
   status Active
8. 2025-12-20
   price $260,000
9. 2025-11-24
   historical
10. 2025-11-22
    status Active
11. 2025-11-18
    historical
12. 2025-11-14
    listed $250,000 Active
13. 2024-11-06
    historical $1,895
14. 2024-10-25
    historical $1,895
15. 2024-10-22
    listed $1,895
16. 2024-10-18
    price $1,895
17. 2024-10-11
    price $1,930
18. 2024-10-04
    price $1,950
19. 2024-09-21
    listed $1,970
20. 2022-08-17
    soldstatus
21. 2022-08-10
    soldstatus Sold 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    This spacious 2 story, 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car attached garage, lot of windows on an oversized lot in Quail Run Subdivision is a MUST SEE. Perfect for an investor or an owner occupant that isn't afraid of putting in some work. Schedule your tour today!

22. 2022-07-28
    status Pending 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    This spacious 2 story, 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car attached garage, lot of windows on an oversized lot in Quail Run Subdivision is a MUST SEE. Perfect for an investor or an owner occupant that isn't afraid of putting in some work. Schedule your tour today!

23. 2022-07-19
    status Option Pending 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    This spacious 2 story, 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car attached garage, lot of windows on an oversized lot in Quail Run Subdivision is a MUST SEE. Perfect for an investor or an owner occupant that isn't afraid of putting in some work. Schedule your tour today!

24. 2022-07-13
    listed $214,900 Active 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    This spacious 2 story, 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car attached garage, lot of windows on an oversized lot in Quail Run Subdivision is a MUST SEE. Perfect for an investor or an owner occupant that isn't afraid of putting in some work. Schedule your tour today!

25. 2005-10-18
    soldstatus
26. 2005-10-18
    soldstatus
27. 1999-03-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,776 · $398/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,776 · $398/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$4,776
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,087
• − Management: −$2,087
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$4,945
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,187
• After-tax cash flow: $260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.7% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-06 Rental Removed $1,895 RENTLY
• 2024-10-25 Rental Removed $1,895 HARMLS
• 2024-10-22 Listed for Rent $1,895 HARMLS
• 2024-10-18 Price Changed $1,895 RENTLY
• 2024-10-11 Price Changed $1,930 RENTLY
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $1,950 RENTLY
• 2024-09-21 Listed for Rent $1,970 RENTLY
• 2022-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-07-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-13 Listed $214,900 HARMLS
• 2005-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,776 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.