15729 Viewpoint Cir · Montclair, VA 22025

$420,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,192 sqft · Townhouse public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2001 1,742 sqft lot Est $541k · 22% under $75/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP SHOWS IN THIS 3 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATH TOWNHOUSE. ALL NEUTRAL DECOR, HARDWOODS IN KITCHEN AND SUNROOM, KITCHEN W/ ISLAND, MASTER BATH W/ JACUZZI TUB, SEP. SHOWER, DBL. SINK VANITY, TWO WALK IN CLOSETS, GAS FIREPLACE IN LL REC. ROOM, BERBER CARPET IN LL, BRICK PATIO, DECK OFF KITCHEN. JUST MOVE IN! EASY TO SHOW. JUST LEAVE MESSAGE AND SHOW.

Key facts

• Rec center
• Resort-style pools
• Community library

Tags

• RESORT-STYLE POOLS
• REC CENTER
• SPORTS COURTS
• COMMUNITY LIBRARY
• SCENIC LAKESIDE TRAILS
• UNBEATABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Property manager present; Above-grade finished area and below-grade finished area reported by assessor
• HOA & community: HOA fee $75 monthly; Association recreation fee $450

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot with 2 spaces (total garage and parking spaces: 2)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Entry level is floor 2
• Construction: Combination construction materials; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Community pool; Not in a federal flood zone; Ground rent paid annually

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (all upper levels); One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: One fireplace; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-359 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $357k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $313k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.5% in Montclair — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#171 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ashland Elementary (math 77% / reading 88%, grade A+, #98 of 1,108 statewide, top 9%, 766 students, 19% FRL); Louise A. Benton Middle (math 53% / reading 81%, grade A-, #103 of 342 statewide, top 31%, 1,384 students, 21% FRL); Forest Park High (math 53% / reading 87%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 2,308 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $350k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $312,502 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $541,424
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15795 Widewater Dr	0.23mi	3/3.5	2,181 (-0%)	2mo	$560,000	$257	83
15729 Lansdale Pl	0.14mi	3/3.0	2,022 (-8%)	2mo	$500,000	$247	77
15461 Port Washington Ct	0.32mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,160 (-2%)	4mo	$500,000	$231	70
15719 Lansdale Pl	0.12mi	3/3.0	1,936 (-12%)	4mo	$500,000	$258	70
15767 Widewater Dr	0.18mi	3/3.5	1,934 (-12%)	1mo	$540,000	$279	67
15745 Widewater Dr	0.14mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,966 (-10%)	4mo	$530,000	$270	64
15327 Inlet Pl	0.53mi	3/3.5	2,079 (-5%)	1mo	$488,000	$235	62
5121 Spring Branch Blvd	0.44mi	3/3.5	2,017 (-8%)	1mo	$460,000	$228	61
5251 Spring Branch Blvd	0.28mi	3/3.5	1,907 (-13%)	2mo	$465,000	$244	60
15301 Waters Edge Ct	0.44mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,045 (-7%)	1mo	$485,000	$237	59
15661 Montview Dr	0.35mi	3/3.5	1,949 (-11%)	5mo	$498,000	$256	57
15343 Inlet Pl	0.49mi	3/3.5	1,979 (-10%)	1mo	$445,000	$225	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-43,181
• Equity at exit: $113,442

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-20,848
• Equity at exit: $129,743

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22025

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,125 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$376 /mo · $4,508/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$656
• Net cashflow: $-359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,580

Max offer price $356,501

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-241	+0% $-359	+5% $-478	+10% $-597
Rent	-10% $-606	-5% $-483	+0% $-359	+5% $-236	+10% $-113
Rate	-1.0pp $-148	-0.5pp $-253	base $-359	+0.5pp $-468	+1.0pp $-579

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15375 Inlet Pl Dumfries, VA	3.0	3.5	1410	$2,462	$1.75	26d	1	0.42mi
15230 Streamside Ct Dumfries, VA	3.0	1.5	1740	$2,400	$1.38	14d	1	0.44mi
15337 Edgehill Dr Dumfries, VA	4.0	2.5	1534	$3,400	$2.22	4d	1	0.45mi
15337 Edgehill Dr Dumfries, VA	4.0	2.5	1534	$3,600	$2.35	45d	1	0.45mi
15873 Montview Dr Dumfries, VA	4.0	2.5	1824	$3,350	$1.84	26d	1	0.53mi
15310 Holly Hill Dr Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	2856	$3,300	$1.16	14d	1	0.65mi
15310 Holly Hill Dr Dumfries, VA	3.0	2.5	1820	$3,300	$1.81	20d	1	0.65mi
5570 Assateague Pl Manassas, VA	4.0	3.5	2300	$3,500	$1.52	13d	1	1.05mi
5570 Assateague Pl Manassas, VA	3.0	3.5	2600	$3,500	$1.35	7d	1	1.05mi
15462 Windsong Ln Dumfries, VA	3.0	3.5	1846	$2,500	$1.35	45d	1	1.17mi
15516 Three Otters Pl Manassas, VA	3.0	3.5	1728	$2,690	$1.56	45d	1	1.17mi
15718 Cranberry Ct Dumfries, VA	4.0	3.0	1920	$3,000	$1.56	0d	1	1.23mi
15385 Bevanwood Dr Woodbridge, VA	4.0	3.5	2816	$3,900	$1.38	45d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $420,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $420,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   remarks 687-char remark
4. 2026-06-01
   listed $420,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,508 · $376/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,508 · $376/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$4,508
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,000
• − Management: −$3,000
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$11,753
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,821
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince William County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103130
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $96,347
• Composite: 57.92/100
• National rank: #1041
• State rank: #30 of 131 in VA

Livability — Montclair

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #5378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montclair, VA
• County: Prince William County · 452,627 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 19,356
• Household income: $150,306
• Rent vs Own: 13.0% rent · 87.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 69.0

Population outlook (Prince William County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,759 people
• By 2030: 582,629 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 665,916 · +23.4%
• By 2050: 740,796 · +37.2%
• By 2075: 900,980 · +66.9%
• By 2100: 985,833 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 23% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 7% Arabic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince William

• 2024 margin: D (+18.0) · D 57.6% · R 39.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: 15.9pp · 2024: 18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.0 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.41%
• Current HPI: 309.3285
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+174.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $420,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $349,900 Public Records
• 2007-01-30 Sold (MLS) $349,900 MRIS
• 2007-01-04 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-11-25 Listed $349,900 MRIS
• 2003-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2001-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,508 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.