480 S Rainbow Dr #56 · Star Valley, AZ 85541

$55,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 451 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1984 Average condition $82/sqft · 70% below area ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful, remodeled home on double lot! This one bedroom, one bathroom has 672sf with screened in porch. As soon as you walk in you feel at home with a living room that leads into the kitchen and dining area. Charming kitchen with ample cabinetry, refrigerator, electric stove and microwave. Bedroom is spacious and has door to access the fully fenced backyard. Bathroom has walk-in shower. Serene backyard setting with wooden privacy fence and a shed. Buyer must be qualified through Houston Creek RV and Manufactured Home Park. Home is being sold furnished with exception of a coffee table. New financing option is available!

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Ample cabinetry
• Double lot

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• DOUBLE LOT
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 3.8% in Star Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#380 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Julia Randall Elementary School (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #586 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 576 students, 58% FRL); Rim Country Middle School (math 21% / reading 31%, grade F, #100 of 218 statewide, top 47%, 493 students, 53% FRL); Payson High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #141 of 381 statewide, top 38%, 790 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 710 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 451 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 451 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.57%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,070
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -70.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3933 E Hwy Az-260 #116	0.73mi	2/1.0 (+1)	596 (-11%)	4mo	$64,000	$107	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $14,262
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $42,417
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$68 /mo · $814/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $567

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $401	-5% $382	+0% $363	+5% $344	+10% $325
Rent	-10% $282	-5% $322	+0% $363	+5% $403	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $391	-0.5pp $377	base $363	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $334

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $55,000 Active 451 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 450 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 448 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 447 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 446 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 445 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 444 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 442 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 441 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $55,000 Active 438 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 437 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 436 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 432 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 431 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 430 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 429 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 428 DOM
18. 2025-12-15
    price $55,000 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Beautiful, remodeled home on double lot! This one bedroom, one bathroom has 672sf with screened in porch. As soon as you walk in you feel at home with a living room that leads into the kitchen and dining area. Charming kitchen with ample cabinetry, refrigerator, electric stove and microwave. Bedroom is spacious and has door to access the fully fenced backyard. Bathroom has walk-in shower. Serene backyard setting with wooden privacy fence and a shed. Buyer must be qualified through Houston Creek RV and Manufactured Home Park. Home is being sold furnished with exception of a coffee table. New financing option is available!

19. 2025-06-05
    price $70,000 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Beautiful, remodeled home on double lot! This one bedroom, one bathroom has 672sf with screened in porch. As soon as you walk in you feel at home with a living room that leads into the kitchen and dining area. Charming kitchen with ample cabinetry, refrigerator, electric stove and microwave. Bedroom is spacious and has door to access the fully fenced backyard. Bathroom has walk-in shower. Serene backyard setting with wooden privacy fence and a shed. Buyer must be qualified through Houston Creek RV and Manufactured Home Park. Home is being sold furnished with exception of a coffee table. New financing option is available!

20. 2025-03-27
    listed $85,000 Active 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Beautiful, remodeled home on double lot! This one bedroom, one bathroom has 672sf with screened in porch. As soon as you walk in you feel at home with a living room that leads into the kitchen and dining area. Charming kitchen with ample cabinetry, refrigerator, electric stove and microwave. Bedroom is spacious and has door to access the fully fenced backyard. Bathroom has walk-in shower. Serene backyard setting with wooden privacy fence and a shed. Buyer must be qualified through Houston Creek RV and Manufactured Home Park. Home is being sold furnished with exception of a coffee table. New financing option is available!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone D · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$1,089
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$985
• − Management: −$985
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $3,752
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$900
• After-tax cash flow: $3,455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This remodeled manufactured home offers a good starting point with a good kitchen and bathroom, but could benefit from fresh paint and updated ceiling fans to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Ceiling fans — Worn ceiling fans need cleaning
• Minor Air conditioning unit — Clean and functional, but may need maintenance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace ceiling fans — New ceiling fans improve air circulation and aesthetics
• Both Upgrade air conditioning unit — Modern AC enhances comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Ceiling fans · Worn ceiling fans need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Air conditioning unit · Clean and functional, but may need maintenance	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans — New ceiling fans improve air circulation and aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrade air conditioning unit — Modern AC enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Star Valley

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #26699

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Star Valley, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-35.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $55,000 CAAR
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $70,000 CAAR
• 2025-03-27 Listed $85,000 CAAR