1911 Oregon Ave · Shasta Lake, CA 96019

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1991 7,840 sqft lot Est $281k · 47% under ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special in Shasta Lake City! Located at 1911 Oregon Street, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity through renovation. The property is a true fixer-upper and will require an extensive remodel, including interior cleanout and significant yard and debris cleanup. The roof appears to be in good condition, providing a solid starting point for your improvements. This is a project suited for someone not afraid of hard work and ready to bring their vision to life. With strong upside potential, this property is being sold as-is and is available for cash purchase only.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1991

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.7% in Shasta Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#399 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shasta Lake (math 27% / reading 36%, grade F, #816 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 616 students, 74% FRL); Central Valley High (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #256 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 625 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gateway Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.31%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,060
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5038 Main St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,148 (-4%)	2mo	$309,000	$269	80
5230 Front St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-7%)	12mo	$275,000	$248	66
4829 Chico St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,226 (+2%)	9mo	$202,400	$165	66
1717 Deer Creek Rd	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,314 (+10%)	2mo	$285,000	$217	64
4670 Williamette St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+8%)	9mo	$230,000	$179	63
1329 Median Ave	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,234 (+3%)	6mo	$305,000	$247	59
5126 Moon Shadow Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+9%)	12mo	$305,000	$234	56
4524 Main St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+8%)	7mo	$304,000	$235	55
4344 Meade St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+3%)	8mo	$290,000	$235	55
1140 Eugene Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,058 (-12%)	1mo	$299,900	$283	53
1316 Grand River Ave	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,092 (-9%)	10mo	$240,000	$220	51
4229 Fort Peck St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,053 (-12%)	10mo	$161,000	$153	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-9,896
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $10,261
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96019

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,780 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,196/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,496

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $309	-5% $267	+0% $224	+5% $182	+10% $140
Rent	-10% $84	-5% $154	+0% $224	+5% $295	+10% $365
Rate	-1.0pp $300	-0.5pp $263	base $224	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1833 Oregon St Shasta Lake, CA	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,850	$1.43	15d	1	0.05mi
1840 Grand Coulee Blvd Shasta Lake, CA	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,850	$1.38	46d	1	0.08mi
1707 Grand Coulee Blvd Unit B Shasta Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,459	$1.82	15d	1	0.15mi
4325 Fort Peck St Shasta Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	864	$1,600	$1.85	15d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-26
   historical
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $150,000
3. 2006-01-19
   soldstatus $205,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,196 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,196 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 44 unhealthy d/yr today · 46 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,196
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,709
• − Management: −$1,709
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $435
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$104
• After-tax cash flow: $2,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Shasta Lake

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #399
• US rank: #13546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living D- Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shasta Lake, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 10,350
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 10,350
• Household income: $67,446
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 260.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Romanian 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.66%
• Current HPI: 170.6085
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-26.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Delisted — SAOR
• 2026-04-24 Listed $150,000 SAOR
• 2006-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,196 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.