4908 Red Oak Ln · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40218

$142,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,174 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 1969 7,405 sqft lot Est $204k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property sold in as is condition, loan approval letter or verification of funds if cash, min $1,000.00 deposit (copy of check), seller disclosure, Termite Report, Lead Base Paint and agent checklist with all offers. AGENTS DO NOT SEND ANY OFFERS WITHOUT ALL OF THE ABOVE. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 5/24/2011. Offers only from Owner Occupants, Neighborhood Stabilization Program Grantees and non-profits engaged in community stabilization efforts will be considered the 1st 15 days of the listing. Investor offers will be considered on the 16th day of the listing which will be 5/25/2011 Seller is offering 2 Year HOW Warranty on Owner Occupied Properties only. If Buyer wants the 2 Year Warranty it must be written into the Orginal Offer to Purchase as follows: ''Seller to provide 2 Year HOW Warranty

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1969

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $142k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $982 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 42% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $142k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.38%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,276
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5407 Robinwood Rd	0.16mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,150 (-2%)	5mo	$205,000	$178	80
5402 Rustic Way	0.06mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,277 (+9%)	2mo	$195,000	$153	76
4884 Brenda Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,147 (-2%)	3mo	$185,000	$161	72
5104 Red Oak Ln	0.17mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,235 (+5%)	8mo	$180,000	$146	72
5209 Cedrus Cir	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,190 (+1%)	5mo	$155,000	$130	71
1602 Rangeland Rd	0.52mi	4/1.0	1,210 (+3%)	1mo	$210,000	$174	70
4607 Plane Tree Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-5%)	5mo	$225,000	$201	66
5305 Red Oak Ln	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-8%)	2mo	$175,000	$162	61
4911 Lagoona Dr	0.58mi	4/1.0	1,219 (+4%)	8mo	$200,000	$164	60
5208 Rural Way	0.32mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (-11%)	3mo	$215,000	$205	60
5208 Garden Green Way	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,158 (-1%)	8mo	$209,000	$180	60
4805 E Indian Trl	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,334 (+14%)	1mo	$240,000	$180	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-5,845
• Equity at exit: $21,173

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,786
• Equity at exit: $12,278

Cash invested: $39,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40218

• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,617 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,558/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,182

Max offer price $142,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,500
• Closing costs: $4,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4903 De Priest Ct Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1283	$1,850	$1.44	10d	1	0.34mi
5117 Alba Way Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	23d	1	0.35mi
5809 Russett Pl Unit 5707-200 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	23d	1	0.48mi
5603 Regal Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	947	$1,500	$1.58	16d	1	0.49mi
5319 Rangeland Rd Louisville, KY	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1225	$1,810	$1.48	3d	10	0.62mi
5111 Lammers Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1175	$1,400	$1.19	11d	1	0.92mi
4206 Saint Francis Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	910	$1,500	$1.65	23d	1	0.98mi
4520 Norene Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1161	$1,695	$1.46	23d	1	1.06mi
5024 Delaware Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	890	$1,500	$1.69	17d	1	1.16mi
3620 E Indian Trl Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,495	$1.32	3d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-08-01
   soldstatus $85,000
2. 2025-06-23
   historical
3. 2025-06-23
   listed $100,000 Active
4. 2024-02-01
   status Pending
5. 2024-01-13
   listed $142,000 Active
6. 2011-06-15
   soldstatus $31,500 853-char remark

   Show marketing remark (853 chars)

   Property sold in as is condition, loan approval letter or verification of funds if cash, min $1,000.00 deposit (copy of check), seller disclosure, Termite Report, Lead Base Paint and agent checklist with all offers. AGENTS DO NOT SEND ANY OFFERS WITHOUT ALL OF THE ABOVE. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 5/24/2011. Offers only from Owner Occupants, Neighborhood Stabilization Program Grantees and non-profits engaged in community stabilization efforts will be considered the 1st 15 days of the listing. Investor offers will be considered on the 16th day of the listing which will be 5/25/2011 Seller is offering 2 Year HOW Warranty on Owner Occupied Properties only. If Buyer wants the 2 Year Warranty it must be written into the Orginal Offer to Purchase as follows: ''Seller to provide 2 Year HOW Warranty

7. 2011-05-10
   listed $31,900 853-char remark

   Show marketing remark (853 chars)

   Property sold in as is condition, loan approval letter or verification of funds if cash, min $1,000.00 deposit (copy of check), seller disclosure, Termite Report, Lead Base Paint and agent checklist with all offers. AGENTS DO NOT SEND ANY OFFERS WITHOUT ALL OF THE ABOVE. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 5/24/2011. Offers only from Owner Occupants, Neighborhood Stabilization Program Grantees and non-profits engaged in community stabilization efforts will be considered the 1st 15 days of the listing. Investor offers will be considered on the 16th day of the listing which will be 5/25/2011 Seller is offering 2 Year HOW Warranty on Owner Occupied Properties only. If Buyer wants the 2 Year Warranty it must be written into the Orginal Offer to Purchase as follows: ''Seller to provide 2 Year HOW Warranty

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,954
• − Property taxes: −$1,558
• − Insurance: −$710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,553
• − Management: −$1,553
• − Depreciation: −$4,131
• Taxable income: $1,949
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$468
• After-tax cash flow: $3,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 33,736
• Household income: $58,811
• Rent vs Own: 50.5% rent · 49.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1590.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, India, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -208.23%
• Current HPI: 257.9528
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.47%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+166.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2025-06-23 Listed $100,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-06-23 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-02-01 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-01-13 Listed $142,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2011-06-15 Sold (MLS) $31,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2011-05-10 Listed $31,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,558 · +56.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.