1202 Dutch St · Deer Park, TX 77536

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 925 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1960 5,000 sqft lot $215/sqft · 35% above area Est $191k · at est. ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully renovated and move-in ready home with brand-new electrical, AC, plumbing, and roof for long-term peace of mind. The interior features a modern open-concept layout, beautiful flooring throughout, and a brand-new kitchen designed for today’s lifestyle. Situated on a corner lot, the property offers a generously sized, fenced yard ideal for outdoor living and entertaining. Conveniently located with easy access to DPISD schools, dining, and major roadways. Seller offering a $1,500 credit toward appliances with acceptable offer.

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Brand new plumbing
• Brand new roof

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• BRAND NEW ELECTRICAL
• BRAND NEW AC
• BRAND NEW PLUMBING
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• MODERN OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.7% in Deer Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#244 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Deer Park ISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #170 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,105 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,656
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 4.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 W 12th St	0.03mi	2/1.0	844 (-9%)	13mo	$109,000	$129	73
811 Boston St	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (0%)	17mo	$174,900	$189	72
211 E 4th St	0.51mi	2/1.0	964 (+4%)	2mo	$174,999	$182	68
830 Elm St	0.18mi	3/1.5 (+1)	988 (+7%)	19mo	$185,000	$187	58
221 W 4th St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,003 (+8%)	5mo	$160,000	$160	57
202 Sylvia St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (+14%)	7mo	$229,800	$219	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-47,261
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-63,449
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77536

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,531 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$302 /mo · $3,622/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,808

Max offer price $160,341

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-106	-5% $-163	+0% $-219	+5% $-275	+10% $-331
Rent	-10% $-340	-5% $-279	+0% $-219	+5% $-158	+10% $-98
Rate	-1.0pp $-119	-0.5pp $-168	base $-219	+0.5pp $-270	+1.0pp $-323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
401 McDermott St Deer Park, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,585	$1.69	6d	13	1.30mi
407 McDermott St Deer Park, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,220	$1.19	45d	1	1.31mi
510 W Pasadena Blvd Deer Park, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,476	$1.31	45d	1	1.37mi
401 W Pasadena Blvd Deer Park, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$1,614	$1.55	0d	20	1.38mi
500 W Pasadena Blvd Deer Park, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1300	$1,480	$1.14	0d	26	1.42mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   Fully renovated and move-in ready home with brand-new electrical, AC, plumbing, and roof for long-term peace of mind. The interior features a modern open-concept layout, beautiful flooring throughout, and a brand-new kitchen designed for today’s lifestyle. Situated on a corner lot, the property offers a generously sized, fenced yard ideal for outdoor living and entertaining. Conveniently located with easy access to DPISD schools, dining, and major roadways. Seller offering a $1,500 credit toward appliances with acceptable offer.

2. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   Fully renovated and move-in ready home with brand-new electrical, AC, plumbing, and roof for long-term peace of mind. The interior features a modern open-concept layout, beautiful flooring throughout, and a brand-new kitchen designed for today’s lifestyle. Situated on a corner lot, the property offers a generously sized, fenced yard ideal for outdoor living and entertaining. Conveniently located with easy access to DPISD schools, dining, and major roadways. Seller offering a $1,500 credit toward appliances with acceptable offer.

3. 2026-03-11
   price $199,000 540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   Fully renovated and move-in ready home with brand-new electrical, AC, plumbing, and roof for long-term peace of mind. The interior features a modern open-concept layout, beautiful flooring throughout, and a brand-new kitchen designed for today’s lifestyle. Situated on a corner lot, the property offers a generously sized, fenced yard ideal for outdoor living and entertaining. Conveniently located with easy access to DPISD schools, dining, and major roadways. Seller offering a $1,500 credit toward appliances with acceptable offer.

4. 2026-03-02
   status Active 540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   Fully renovated and move-in ready home with brand-new electrical, AC, plumbing, and roof for long-term peace of mind. The interior features a modern open-concept layout, beautiful flooring throughout, and a brand-new kitchen designed for today’s lifestyle. Situated on a corner lot, the property offers a generously sized, fenced yard ideal for outdoor living and entertaining. Conveniently located with easy access to DPISD schools, dining, and major roadways. Seller offering a $1,500 credit toward appliances with acceptable offer.

5. 2026-02-28
   historical 540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   Fully renovated and move-in ready home with brand-new electrical, AC, plumbing, and roof for long-term peace of mind. The interior features a modern open-concept layout, beautiful flooring throughout, and a brand-new kitchen designed for today’s lifestyle. Situated on a corner lot, the property offers a generously sized, fenced yard ideal for outdoor living and entertaining. Conveniently located with easy access to DPISD schools, dining, and major roadways. Seller offering a $1,500 credit toward appliances with acceptable offer.

6. 2026-02-19
   price $209,900 540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   Fully renovated and move-in ready home with brand-new electrical, AC, plumbing, and roof for long-term peace of mind. The interior features a modern open-concept layout, beautiful flooring throughout, and a brand-new kitchen designed for today’s lifestyle. Situated on a corner lot, the property offers a generously sized, fenced yard ideal for outdoor living and entertaining. Conveniently located with easy access to DPISD schools, dining, and major roadways. Seller offering a $1,500 credit toward appliances with acceptable offer.

7. 2026-01-29
   price $215,000 540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   Fully renovated and move-in ready home with brand-new electrical, AC, plumbing, and roof for long-term peace of mind. The interior features a modern open-concept layout, beautiful flooring throughout, and a brand-new kitchen designed for today’s lifestyle. Situated on a corner lot, the property offers a generously sized, fenced yard ideal for outdoor living and entertaining. Conveniently located with easy access to DPISD schools, dining, and major roadways. Seller offering a $1,500 credit toward appliances with acceptable offer.

8. 2026-01-14
   listed $219,900 Active 540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   Fully renovated and move-in ready home with brand-new electrical, AC, plumbing, and roof for long-term peace of mind. The interior features a modern open-concept layout, beautiful flooring throughout, and a brand-new kitchen designed for today’s lifestyle. Situated on a corner lot, the property offers a generously sized, fenced yard ideal for outdoor living and entertaining. Conveniently located with easy access to DPISD schools, dining, and major roadways. Seller offering a $1,500 credit toward appliances with acceptable offer.

9. 2025-09-16
   soldstatus
10. 1996-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,622 · $302/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$19/yr (+$2/mo · 0.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,622
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,470
• − Management: −$1,470
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$6,121
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,469
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Park ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $68,227
• Composite: 43.3/100
• National rank: #3039
• State rank: #170 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deer Park

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #5835

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deer Park, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 33,174
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,174
• Household income: $102,045
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.30%
• Current HPI: 253.1973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,622 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.