2906 Bryan Ave · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 5,750 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER OFFERING $5,000 IN CONCESSIONS!! Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the Frenship ISD in Wolfforth, TX. This property features an open-concept living area, granite countertops, and generously sized bedrooms. The home also offers a large backyard and a metal side porch, providing additional outdoor space. Situated in a quiet neighborhood with convenient access to local dining and amenities.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Convenient access
• Metal side porch

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE BACKYARD
• METAL SIDE PORCH
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (34.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Crestview El (math 77% / reading 80%, grade A, #48 of 4,322 statewide, top 1%, 583 students, 29% FRL); Frenship Middle (math 46% / reading 50%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 833 students, 47% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,189 (34.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.58%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $81,526
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $260,047
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,579 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$534 /mo · $6,409/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,073

Max offer price $128,189

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-280	-5% $-335	+0% $-391	+5% $-446	+10% $-501
Rent	-10% $-515	-5% $-453	+0% $-391	+5% $-328	+10% $-266
Rate	-1.0pp $-292	-0.5pp $-341	base $-391	+0.5pp $-441	+1.0pp $-493

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
407 E 21st St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,399	$1.03	23d	1	0.44mi
2011 Bryan Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	45d	1	0.46mi
2418 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	45d	1	0.46mi
2008 Bryan Ave Unit Harvest-2008 A Bryan Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,400	$1.14	45d	1	0.48mi
2006 Corpus Ave Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,425	$1.17	15d	1	0.49mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit 2001 B Corpus Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	23d	1	0.51mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	15d	1	0.51mi
2001 Bryan Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,400	$1.03	45d	1	0.52mi
2304 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,425	$1.08	45d	1	0.54mi
1817 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,600	$1.14	15d	1	0.55mi
2008 Cottonwood Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,810	$1.25	45d	1	0.55mi
304 E 19th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,150	$1.03	15d	1	0.64mi
1712 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	2.0	2.0	1335	$1,375	$1.03	45d	1	0.67mi
611 E 14th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,725	$1.33	45d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $195,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-03-16
    listed $195,000 Active 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    SELLER OFFERING $5,000 IN CONCESSIONS!! Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the Frenship ISD in Wolfforth, TX. This property features an open-concept living area, granite countertops, and generously sized bedrooms. The home also offers a large backyard and a metal side porch, providing additional outdoor space. Situated in a quiet neighborhood with convenient access to local dining and amenities.

18. 2023-07-12
    historical 688-char remark

    Show marketing remark (688 chars)

    HUGE value in this 1231 square foot home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a single car garage, and MASSIVE back yard! The midnight blue vinyl siding adds a beautiful accent to the exterior. Inside the front door is an open concept layout leading from the living area, through the dining area, right into the kitchen with plenty of storage space. Bedrooms 2 and 3, in the front of the home, are separated by a shared bathroom with a pedestal sink. The central laundry room provides easy access for all. The primary suite offers a full vanity and open closet! Thoughtful use of space capitalizes on all 1231 of the square feet in this fantastic floor plan! Up to $10,000 in closing assistance!

19. 2023-07-10
    soldstatus Closed 688-char remark

    Show marketing remark (688 chars)

    HUGE value in this 1231 square foot home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a single car garage, and MASSIVE back yard! The midnight blue vinyl siding adds a beautiful accent to the exterior. Inside the front door is an open concept layout leading from the living area, through the dining area, right into the kitchen with plenty of storage space. Bedrooms 2 and 3, in the front of the home, are separated by a shared bathroom with a pedestal sink. The central laundry room provides easy access for all. The primary suite offers a full vanity and open closet! Thoughtful use of space capitalizes on all 1231 of the square feet in this fantastic floor plan! Up to $10,000 in closing assistance!

20. 2023-06-03
    status Pending 688-char remark

    Show marketing remark (688 chars)

    HUGE value in this 1231 square foot home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a single car garage, and MASSIVE back yard! The midnight blue vinyl siding adds a beautiful accent to the exterior. Inside the front door is an open concept layout leading from the living area, through the dining area, right into the kitchen with plenty of storage space. Bedrooms 2 and 3, in the front of the home, are separated by a shared bathroom with a pedestal sink. The central laundry room provides easy access for all. The primary suite offers a full vanity and open closet! Thoughtful use of space capitalizes on all 1231 of the square feet in this fantastic floor plan! Up to $10,000 in closing assistance!

21. 2023-06-01
    listed $185,475 Active 688-char remark

    Show marketing remark (688 chars)

    HUGE value in this 1231 square foot home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a single car garage, and MASSIVE back yard! The midnight blue vinyl siding adds a beautiful accent to the exterior. Inside the front door is an open concept layout leading from the living area, through the dining area, right into the kitchen with plenty of storage space. Bedrooms 2 and 3, in the front of the home, are separated by a shared bathroom with a pedestal sink. The central laundry room provides easy access for all. The primary suite offers a full vanity and open closet! Thoughtful use of space capitalizes on all 1231 of the square feet in this fantastic floor plan! Up to $10,000 in closing assistance!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,409 · $534/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,409 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$6,409
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,516
• − Management: −$1,516
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$8,065
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,935
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Wolfforth, TX, offers a good condition with modern amenities and a good ROI potential for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping front yard — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both Replace ceiling fans with modern models — Modernizes interior and improves airflow

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping front yard — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with modern models — Modernizes interior and improves airflow ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $195,000 LARMLS
• 2023-07-12 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2023-07-10 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2023-06-03 Pending — LARMLS
• 2023-06-01 Listed $185,475 LARMLS

Property tax history

+161.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,409 · +66.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.