Lot 48 Carlyene Dr · Midway, GA 31320

$288,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2026 0.88 ac lot Est $299k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful all brick home located in Isle of Wright Subdivision. This wonderful property features 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathrooms, Living room with fireplace, Huge laundry room with bathroom, 2 enclosed patios that overlooks the lake, beautiful lakefront view with Dock , 2 storage sheds with electricity and hangar for a RV. This rare lakeview property is looking for its new owner and won't last long.

Key facts

• Lvt flooring
• 0.88 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LVT FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SOLID SURFACES IN KITCHEN
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.3% in Midway — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#219 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $187k; list at $289k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,278 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $299,130
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
260 W 1st St	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,525 (-1%)	4mo	$218,000	$143	83
259 Islands Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,542 (+0%)	4mo	$247,000	$160	80
514 W 1st St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-1%)	20mo	$290,000	$190	66
337 Island Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,642 (+7%)	10mo	$324,900	$198	65
337 Island Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,642 (+7%)	10mo	$324,900	$198	65
597 Tideland Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,531 (-0%)	12mo	$405,000	$265	63
237 W 1st St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,702 (+11%)	13mo	$332,000	$195	63
613 Tideland Dr	0.57mi	3/3.0	1,614 (+5%)	0mo	$410,000	$254	60
622 W 1st St	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,452 (-5%)	15mo	$244,000	$168	53
3353 Isle Of Wight Rd	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,640 (+7%)	11mo	$285,000	$174	43
228 Circle Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,314 (-14%)	9mo	$147,500	$112	41
271 Pinetree Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,656 (+8%)	22mo	$367,000	$222	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-61,042
• Equity at exit: $43,076

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-71,579
• Equity at exit: $24,979

Cash invested: $80,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31320

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,103 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,515
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,983/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,385

Max offer price $249,541

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,225
• Closing costs: $8,667
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
491 Lake Rosalind Dr Midway, GA	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,600	$1.79	14d	1	0.12mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   listed $288,900 Active
3. 2018-12-13
   soldstatus $187,000 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (395 chars)

   Beautiful all brick home located in Isle of Wright Subdivision. This wonderful property features 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathrooms, Living room with fireplace, Huge laundry room with bathroom, 2 enclosed patios that overlooks the lake, beautiful lakefront view with Dock , 2 storage sheds with electricity and hangar for a RV. This rare lakeview property is looking for its new owner and won't last long.

4. 2018-12-13
   soldstatus $187,000 395-char remark

   Show marketing remark (395 chars)

   Beautiful all brick home located in Isle of Wright Subdivision. This wonderful property features 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathrooms, Living room with fireplace, Huge laundry room with bathroom, 2 enclosed patios that overlooks the lake, beautiful lakefront view with Dock , 2 storage sheds with electricity and hangar for a RV. This rare lakeview property is looking for its new owner and won't last long.

5. 2018-09-29
   listed $189,000 396-char remark

   Show marketing remark (395 chars)

   Beautiful all brick home located in Isle of Wright Subdivision. This wonderful property features 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathrooms, Living room with fireplace, Huge laundry room with bathroom, 2 enclosed patios that overlooks the lake, beautiful lakefront view with Dock , 2 storage sheds with electricity and hangar for a RV. This rare lakeview property is looking for its new owner and won't last long.

6. 2018-09-29
   listed $189,000 395-char remark

   Show marketing remark (395 chars)

   Beautiful all brick home located in Isle of Wright Subdivision. This wonderful property features 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathrooms, Living room with fireplace, Huge laundry room with bathroom, 2 enclosed patios that overlooks the lake, beautiful lakefront view with Dock , 2 storage sheds with electricity and hangar for a RV. This rare lakeview property is looking for its new owner and won't last long.

7. 2014-06-16
   soldstatus $153,900
8. 2014-06-11
   soldstatus $153,900
9. 2013-04-16
   listed $159,700
10. 2012-10-13
    historical
11. 2012-04-20
    listed $249,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,983 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,983 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,183
• − Property taxes: −$2,983
• − Insurance: −$1,444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − Depreciation: −$8,404
• Taxable loss: −$7,819
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,877
• After-tax cash flow: $-797/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

Livability — Midway

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #219
• US rank: #12952

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 58,565 people
• City population: 10,794
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 10,794
• Household income: $77,195
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 136.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 33% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.67%
• Current HPI: 239.3136
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+15.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — HABR
• 2026-02-26 Listed $288,900 HABR
• 2018-12-13 Sold (MLS) $187,000 Hive MLS
• 2018-12-13 Sold (MLS) $187,000 HABR
• 2018-09-29 Listed $189,000 Hive MLS
• 2018-09-29 Listed $189,000 HABR
• 2014-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $153,900 Public Records
• 2014-06-11 Sold (MLS) $153,900 Hive MLS
• 2013-04-16 Listed $159,700 Hive MLS
• 2012-10-13 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2012-04-20 Listed $249,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,983 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.