7153 Fox Meadow Dr · Callaway, FL 32404

$230,544

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,365 sqft · Land · 56 Days on market

Built 2025 3,790 sqft lot $169/sqft · 12% below area Est $262k · 12% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * Price reduction!!! Come check out this brand-new construction, cozy, 1,365 square footage home. The master bedroom features a knockout ceiling, and a spacious walk-in closet. The kitchen and bathroom counter tops are granite. It is located in the desired Fox Glenn community. This community is located approximately 9 miles from Tyndall Air Forces Base, 22 miles from Mexico Beach, and 22 miles from Panama City Beach.

Key facts

• Fox glenn community
• New construction
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• KNOCKOUT CEILING
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FOX GLENN COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present; Short-term rentals allowed in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with garage door opener (1-car garage)
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story residence; New construction; Zoned residential single-family
• Construction: Vinyl siding with wood frame construction; Shingle/composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Sprinkler system; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 10.6 x 10.1 and 10.6 x 11.8)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $231k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-254 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#690 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Callaway Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 511 students, 72% FRL); Rutherford High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,337 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 983 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,579 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,308
• List price: $230,544
• Delta: -12.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-56,631
• Equity at exit: $34,375

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-82,447
• Equity at exit: $19,933

Cash invested: $64,552 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 983
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,696 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$288 /mo · $3,458/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,017

Max offer price $193,853

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-94	-5% $-174	+0% $-254	+5% $-333	+10% $-413
Rent	-10% $-388	-5% $-321	+0% $-254	+5% $-187	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-137	-0.5pp $-195	base $-254	+0.5pp $-313	+1.0pp $-374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,636
• Closing costs: $6,916
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
263 Nelle Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,690	$1.31	23d	1	0.72mi
291 Sukoshi Dr Unit A Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	918	$1,495	$1.63	23d	1	0.91mi
7006 Lois St Unit B Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	23d	1	0.93mi
285 Sukoshi Dr Unit C Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	916	$1,250	$1.36	15d	1	0.94mi
211 Sukoshi Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,900	$1.26	23d	1	0.95mi
116 Christie Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,550	$1.42	23d	1	0.99mi
175 N Berthe Ave Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1498	$2,195	$1.47	15d	1	1.00mi
163 Lauren Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,300	$1.33	23d	1	1.02mi
168 N Comet Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	23d	1	1.14mi
6121 Harvey St Unit 8 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,050	$0.88	23d	1	1.17mi
6121 Harvey St Apt 16 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,090	$1.09	23d	1	1.17mi
6101 Harvey St #3 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1108	$1,050	$0.95	23d	1	1.19mi
5817 Jasmine Ct Panama City, FL	4.0	2.5	1633	$2,000	$1.22	15d	1	1.27mi
6724 Chipewa St Unit 6724 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,125	$1.12	15d	1	1.29mi
229 Callaway Chase Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,650	$1.38	15d	1	1.34mi
420 Raven Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,750	$1.40	23d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   status $230,544 Pending 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $230,544 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,544 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,544 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,544 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,544 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,544 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,544 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,544 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $230,544 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $230,544 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,544 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $230,544 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    remarks 423-char remark
15. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $230,544 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,544 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,544 Active 38 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,544 Active 37 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $255,544 Active 36 DOM
20. 2026-04-24
    listed $255,544 Active 399-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,914
• − Property taxes: −$3,458
• − Insurance: −$1,153
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,628
• − Management: −$1,628
• − Depreciation: −$6,707
• Taxable loss: −$7,138
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,713
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Callaway

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #690
• US rank: #14384

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $230,544 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $255,544 CPARMLS