814 Cedar Lake Rd SW · Decatur, AL 35603

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1961 0.44 ac lot $107/sqft · at area comps Est $165k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

IMMACULATE INSIDE WITH SOOOO MANY UPDATES AND UPGRADES: NEW HVAC, ROOF, FLOORING REDONE, CABINETRY, COUNTERTOPS, HARDWARE, PLUMBING, FIXTURES, FAUCETS, PAINT, SOME NEW DRYWALL, FLOOR JOISTS AND MORE. THIS IS A MUST SEE.

Key facts

• Flooring redone
• New hvac
• New cabinetry

Tags

• NEW HVAC
• NEW ROOF
• FLOORING REDONE
• NEW CABINETRY
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• NEW HARDWARE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.0% in Decatur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur City (urban): math 22% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #66 of 129 in AL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frances Nungester Elementary School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #171 of 627 statewide, top 31%, 390 students, 83% FRL); Decatur High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #90 of 305 statewide, top 35%, 1,040 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 57% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 404 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 231 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morgan County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $118k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,035 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.57%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,161
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: 2.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3113 SW Sandlin Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-1%)	4mo	$289,000	$183	66
928 Spring Ct SW	0.32mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,700 (+7%)	8mo	$194,000	$114	59
604 Westbrook Dr SW	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,722 (+8%)	2mo	$244,900	$142	54
609 Bellemeade St SW	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,475 (-7%)	3mo	$169,000	$115	53
2819 Hempstead Ave SW	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,730 (+9%)	3mo	$253,000	$146	51
426 Bromwich St SW	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,467 (-8%)	5mo	$207,000	$141	51
2615 Briar Ave SW	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,756 (+11%)	3mo	$200,000	$114	49
3315 Wheat Ave SW	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,720 (+8%)	7mo	$245,500	$143	49
3207 Wheat Ave SW	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-12%)	12mo	$164,000	$117	47
1111 Way Thru The Woods	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,802 (+14%)	8mo	$275,000	$153	44
2809 Hempstead Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+9%)	14mo	$266,000	$153	41
1504 Chestnut Grv SW	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,793 (+13%)	3mo	$275,000	$153	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-21,135
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-10,413
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35603

• Active inventory: 404
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $418/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,261

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $150	+0% $102	+5% $54	+10% $6
Rent	-10% $-8	-5% $47	+0% $102	+5% $157	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $187	-0.5pp $145	base $102	+0.5pp $58	+1.0pp $13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Courtney Dr SW Decatur, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$1,425	$1.19	45d	6	0.80mi
1242 Beltline Rd SW Decatur, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1118	$1,150	$1.03	45d	5	0.91mi
206 Larkwood Dr SW Decatur, AL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,500	$0.92	45d	1	1.46mi
2025 Danville Park Dr SW Decatur, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,325	$1.41	25d	8	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $169,900 Pending 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $169,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,900 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,900 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $169,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-05-08
    status Pending 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    IMMACULATE INSIDE WITH SOOOO MANY UPDATES AND UPGRADES: NEW HVAC, ROOF, FLOORING REDONE, CABINETRY, COUNTERTOPS, HARDWARE, PLUMBING, FIXTURES, FAUCETS, PAINT, SOME NEW DRYWALL, FLOOR JOISTS AND MORE. THIS IS A MUST SEE.

11. 2026-04-13
    listed $169,900 Active 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    IMMACULATE INSIDE WITH SOOOO MANY UPDATES AND UPGRADES: NEW HVAC, ROOF, FLOORING REDONE, CABINETRY, COUNTERTOPS, HARDWARE, PLUMBING, FIXTURES, FAUCETS, PAINT, SOME NEW DRYWALL, FLOOR JOISTS AND MORE. THIS IS A MUST SEE.

12. 2022-06-30
    soldstatus $118,000
13. 2004-05-24
    soldstatus $34,501
14. 2004-05-19
    soldstatus $35,000
15. 2004-02-24
    soldstatus $37,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $418 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $697 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$279/yr (+$23/mo · 66.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$418
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$1,712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$411
• After-tax cash flow: $1,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur City
• NCES district ID: 0101170
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,170
• Composite: 26.21/100
• National rank: #7261
• State rank: #66 of 129 in AL

Livability — Decatur

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5989

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Decatur, AL
• County: Morgan County · 67,628 people
• City population: 67,628
• Metro: Decatur, AL
• Population (ZIP): 32,179
• Household income: $81,490
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 467.0

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,775 people
• By 2030: 116,979 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 111,800 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 105,181 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 87,736 · -26.1%
• By 2100: 67,624 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.6) · D 23.2% · R 75.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -52.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.6 2020: R+49.2 2016: R+52.4 2012: R+44.5 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.07%
• Current HPI: 243.157
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Decatur, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+353.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — VMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $169,900 VMLS
• 2022-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $34,501 Public Records
• 2004-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2004-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $418 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.