208 3rd Ave SW · Towner, ND 58788

$54,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,027 sqft · SingleFamily · 292 Days on market

Built 1913 10,019 sqft lot Est $77k · 29% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Corner lot
• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• 2-STALL DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Concrete driveway/parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Below-grade finished area; Basement present
• Exterior features: Patio; Lot zoned R1

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: Microwave; Range; Oven; Refrigerator; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $54k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $632 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#190 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Tgu 60 (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #143 of 169 in ND (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in McHenry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($377 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• McHenry County population projected at +57% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 292 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $47,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 292 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.70%
• DSCR: 3.21
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,026
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 3rd St SW	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,008 (-1%)	14mo	$60,000	$30	72
104 4th Ave SW	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-12%)	12mo	$108,000	$60	55
207 6th Ave SW	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-12%)	18mo	$68,000	$38	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $51,122
• Equity at exit: $29,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.91×
• Total profit: $120,649
• Equity at exit: $48,703

Cash invested: $15,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58788

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,277 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$286
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$68 /mo · $818/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $632

Break-even live

Break-even rent $477

Max offer price $54,500

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $670	-5% $651	+0% $632	+5% $613	+10% $594
Rent	-10% $531	-5% $582	+0% $632	+5% $683	+10% $733
Rate	-1.0pp $660	-0.5pp $646	base $632	+0.5pp $618	+1.0pp $604

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,625
• Closing costs: $1,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $54,500 Active 292 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $54,500 Active 291 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,500 Active 289 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,500 Active 288 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,500 Active 287 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,500 Active 286 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,500 Active 284 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,500 Active 283 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,500 Active 280 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $54,500 Active 279 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,500 Active 278 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $54,500 Active 276 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $54,500 Active 274 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,500 Active 273 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,500 Active 272 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,500 Active 271 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $59,500
18. 2026-04-13
    price $64,500
19. 2026-03-27
    price $69,500
20. 2026-03-02
    price $74,500
21. 2025-11-18
    price $77,000
22. 2025-10-14
    status Active
23. 2025-10-06
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2025-09-02
    listed $79,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,053
• − Property taxes: −$818
• − Insurance: −$272
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,226
• − Management: −$1,226
• − Depreciation: −$1,585
• Taxable income: $7,142
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,714
• After-tax cash flow: $5,871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tgu 60
• NCES district ID: 3800047
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,352
• Composite: 28.76/100
• National rank: #11996
• State rank: #143 of 169 in ND

Livability — Towner

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #190
• US rank: #13390

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Towner, ND
• Population (ZIP): 803

Population outlook (McHenry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,220 people
• By 2030: 7,919 · +9.7%
• By 2040: 9,489 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 11,306 · +56.6%
• By 2075: 16,500 · +128.5%
• By 2100: 20,768 · +187.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 36% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McHenry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.5% · R 81.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.5pp toward R · 2008: -16.3pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+59.9 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.44%
• Current HPI: 83.1851
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-25.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $59,500 MMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $64,500 MMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $69,500 MMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $74,500 MMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $77,000 MMLS
• 2025-10-14 Relisted — MMLS
• 2025-10-06 Contingent — MMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $79,500 MMLS