828 County Road 4550 · Spurger, TX 77660

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1989 4.42 ac lot $58/sqft · 72% below area ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your dream of spacious country living starts here! This charming 3-bed, 2-bath home is perfectly positioned on 4.42 unrestricted acres, ready for your unique vision. Inside, enjoy a wonderful, functional layout. With a handy storage shed and canopy already on site, you have ample room and freedom for hobbies, livestock, or creating the perfect estate!

Key facts

• Handy storage shed
• 4.42 acre lot
• Listed 169 days

Tags

• 4.42 UNRESTRICTED ACRES
• HANDY STORAGE SHED
• AMPLE ROOM FOR HOBBIES
• FREEDOM FOR LIVESTOCK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Spurger ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,054 of 1,141 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Spurger El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 203 students, 69% FRL); Spurger H S (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 159 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 50% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Tyler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Tyler County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.60%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,086
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -72.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $23,182
• Equity at exit: $44,515

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $66,987
• Equity at exit: $68,602

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77660

• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,674/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $991

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $204	+0% $175	+5% $147	+10% $119
Rent	-10% $80	-5% $128	+0% $175	+5% $223	+10% $271
Rate	-1.0pp $225	-0.5pp $201	base $175	+0.5pp $150	+1.0pp $124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-07
   price $99,000 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Your dream of spacious country living starts here! This charming 3-bed, 2-bath home is perfectly positioned on 4.42 unrestricted acres, ready for your unique vision. Inside, enjoy a wonderful, functional layout. With a handy storage shed and canopy already on site, you have ample room and freedom for hobbies, livestock, or creating the perfect estate!

2. 2026-02-25
   price $100,500 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Your dream of spacious country living starts here! This charming 3-bed, 2-bath home is perfectly positioned on 4.42 unrestricted acres, ready for your unique vision. Inside, enjoy a wonderful, functional layout. With a handy storage shed and canopy already on site, you have ample room and freedom for hobbies, livestock, or creating the perfect estate!

3. 2026-02-11
   price $120,000 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Your dream of spacious country living starts here! This charming 3-bed, 2-bath home is perfectly positioned on 4.42 unrestricted acres, ready for your unique vision. Inside, enjoy a wonderful, functional layout. With a handy storage shed and canopy already on site, you have ample room and freedom for hobbies, livestock, or creating the perfect estate!

4. 2026-01-23
   price $124,000 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Your dream of spacious country living starts here! This charming 3-bed, 2-bath home is perfectly positioned on 4.42 unrestricted acres, ready for your unique vision. Inside, enjoy a wonderful, functional layout. With a handy storage shed and canopy already on site, you have ample room and freedom for hobbies, livestock, or creating the perfect estate!

5. 2025-12-08
   listed $128,000 Active 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Your dream of spacious country living starts here! This charming 3-bed, 2-bath home is perfectly positioned on 4.42 unrestricted acres, ready for your unique vision. Inside, enjoy a wonderful, functional layout. With a handy storage shed and canopy already on site, you have ample room and freedom for hobbies, livestock, or creating the perfect estate!

6. 2024-08-29
   price $140,000
7. 2024-06-02
   price $149,900
8. 2024-04-15
   price $158,000
9. 2024-03-20
   price $168,000
10. 1997-12-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,674 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,674 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$2,674
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,165
• − Management: −$1,165
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $639
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$153
• After-tax cash flow: $1,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spurger ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841340
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,849
• Composite: 25.85/100
• National rank: #12781
• State rank: #1054 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Spurger

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,141

Population outlook (Tyler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,375 people
• By 2030: 20,036 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 19,150 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 18,017 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 15,300 · -24.9%
• By 2100: 11,702 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tyler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.5) · D 13.0% · R 86.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -44.0pp · 2024: -73.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.5 2020: R+70.3 2016: R+67.2 2012: R+55.5 2008: R+44.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-41.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $99,000 BBOR
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $100,500 BBOR
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $120,000 BBOR
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $124,000 BBOR
• 2025-12-08 Listed $128,000 BBOR
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $140,000 BBOR
• 2024-06-02 Price Changed $149,900 BBOR
• 2024-04-15 Price Changed $158,000 BBOR
• 2024-03-20 Price Changed $168,000 BBOR
• 1997-12-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,674 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.