97 Huckleberry Cir · Saxman, AK 99901

$505,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,121 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 251 Days on market

Built 1979 0.34 ac lot $238/sqft · 10% below area Est $558k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Bright, spacious, and well-maintained duplex in Forest Park. Plenty of natural light, private decks for each unit, and lots of surrounding trees for privacy and peace! Upstairs is 3/2 and downstairs is 1/1. Secure this fantastic opportunity!

Key facts

• Private decks
• Natural light
• Surrounding trees

Tags

• PRIVATE DECKS
• SURROUNDING TREES
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $505k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-85/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $475k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $383k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $383k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#157 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Houghtaling Elementary (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #75 of 156 statewide, top 52%, 310 students, 59% FRL); Schoenbar Middle School (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #26 of 36 statewide, top 71%, 269 students, 40% FRL); Ketchikan High School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #17 of 61 statewide, top 32%, 498 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Ketchikan Gateway Borough in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ketchikan Gateway County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($444k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $382,700 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $558,473
• List price: $505,000
• Delta: -9.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-92,813
• Equity at exit: $75,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-95,305
• Equity at exit: $43,663

Cash invested: $141,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99901

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 22.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,827 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,648
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,021/yr
• Insurance: −$210
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$804
• Net cashflow: $-170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,043

Max offer price $474,887

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $115	-5% $-28	+0% $-170	+5% $-313	+10% $-456
Rent	-10% $-473	-5% $-322	+0% $-170	+5% $-19	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $-42	base $-170	+0.5pp $-301	+1.0pp $-434

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1.5	$3,826
Total (2 units)			$3,827

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $126,250
• Closing costs: $15,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $505,000 Active 251 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $505,000 Active 249 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $505,000 Active 248 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $505,000 Active 247 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $505,000 Active 246 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $505,000 Active 245 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $505,000 Active 243 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $505,000 Active 242 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $505,000 Active 239 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $505,000 Active 238 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $505,000 Active 237 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $505,000 Active 233 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $505,000 Active 232 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $505,000 Active 231 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $505,000 Active 230 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $505,000 Active 229 DOM
17. 2025-10-09
    listed $530,000 Active 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Bright, spacious, and well-maintained duplex in Forest Park. Plenty of natural light, private decks for each unit, and lots of surrounding trees for privacy and peace! Upstairs is 3/2 and downstairs is 1/1. Secure this fantastic opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,021 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,015 · $418/mo
• Expected delta: +$994/yr (+$83/mo · 24.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,288
• − Property taxes: −$4,021
• − Insurance: −$2,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,674
• − Management: −$3,674
• − Depreciation: −$14,691
• Taxable loss: −$10,949
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,628
• After-tax cash flow: $582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Saxman

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #157
• US rank: #23765

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,875

Population outlook (Ketchikan Gateway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,287 people
• By 2030: 14,487 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 14,750 · +3.2%
• By 2050: 14,908 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 15,319 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 15,204 · +6.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Native American 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 9% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 7% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ketchikan Gateway

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.31%
• Current HPI: 190.039
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-09 Listed $530,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+15.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,021 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.