8746 103rd Ave · Vero Lake Estates, FL 32967

$392,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,435 sqft · Land · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pre-Construction. To Be Built. The Sierra floor plan blends modern design with thoughtful functionality, creating a home that feels spacious, inviting, and perfectly suited for today's lifestyle. Located in the desirable Vero Lake Estates, you'll enjoy the relaxed coastal charm of Sebastian, with scenic waterways, fishing, boating, and kayaking along the Indian River Lagoon, all just 5 miles from the beach and close to top golf courses. With no HOA or CDD fees, this home gives you the freedom to live life on your terms. Step inside to discover 9'4'' ceilings and a welcoming foyer that leads to a formal dining room on one side and a den with French doors on the other, providing a quiet space for work or relaxation. The expansive great room flows effortlessly into the stunning kitchen, complete with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, generous cabinetry, and a large center island ideal for entertaining. Sliding glass doors open to a covered lanai, extending the living space outdoors for seamless indoor-outdoor living. The Sierra's split bedroom layout ensures space and privacy for all. The primary suite is a true retreat with a tray ceiling with crown molding, a spacious walk-in closet, dual vanities, an oversized tile-surround shower, and a separate soaking tub. On the opposite side of the home, three secondary bedrooms provide flexibility--two share a full bath, while the fourth features a private ensuite, perfect for guests or multi-generational living. Ceramic tile flooring runs through the main living areas, while plush carpet enhances comfort in the bedrooms. A three-car garage, beautiful landscaping, and smart home features--including a Ring Video Doorbell, Smart Thermostat, Keyless Entry Smart Door Lock, and Deako Switches--add convenience, security, and curb appeal. Backed by a full builder warranty, The Sierra combines coastal charm, modern amenities, and thoughtful design in a location that keeps you connected to the best of Sebastian. Step into The Sierra and embrace the ultimate coastal lifestyle today!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Scenic waterways
• No hoa or cdd fees

Tags

• SIERRA FLOOR PLAN
• VERO LAKE ESTATES
• SCENIC WATERWAYS
• NO HOA OR CDD FEES
• 9'4 CEILINGS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $393k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (42.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (35.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (42.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Treasure Coast Elementary School (math 61% / reading 57%, grade B-, #722 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 691 students, 59% FRL); Sebastian River Middle School (math 46% / reading 44%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 862 students, 65% FRL); Sebastian River High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 1,843 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 611 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $159k; list at $393k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,513 (42.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.89%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-143,991
• Equity at exit: $58,583

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.25×
• Total profit: $-247,025
• Equity at exit: $33,971

Cash invested: $110,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32967

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 611
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,521 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,060
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$491 /mo · $5,894/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-1,150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,977

Max offer price $226,513

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-878	-5% $-1,014	+0% $-1,150	+5% $-1,286	+10% $-1,421
Rent	-10% $-1,349	-5% $-1,249	+0% $-1,150	+5% $-1,050	+10% $-951
Rate	-1.0pp $-952	-0.5pp $-1,050	base $-1,150	+0.5pp $-1,252	+1.0pp $-1,355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,225
• Closing costs: $11,787
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8846 104th Ave Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1992	$1,800	$0.90	23d	1	0.13mi
9024 100th Ct Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,500	$1.35	23d	1	0.46mi
8720 97th Ave Vero Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	2357	$2,300	$0.98	23d	1	0.78mi
8075 104th Ave Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,500	$1.55	15d	1	0.89mi
7955 101st Ct Vero Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1764	$2,200	$1.25	23d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending 2062-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2062 chars)

   Pre-Construction. To Be Built. The Sierra floor plan blends modern design with thoughtful functionality, creating a home that feels spacious, inviting, and perfectly suited for today's lifestyle. Located in the desirable Vero Lake Estates, you'll enjoy the relaxed coastal charm of Sebastian, with scenic waterways, fishing, boating, and kayaking along the Indian River Lagoon, all just 5 miles from the beach and close to top golf courses. With no HOA or CDD fees, this home gives you the freedom to live life on your terms. Step inside to discover 9'4'' ceilings and a welcoming foyer that leads to a formal dining room on one side and a den with French doors on the other, providing a quiet space for work or relaxation. The expansive great room flows effortlessly into the stunning kitchen, complete with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, generous cabinetry, and a large center island ideal for entertaining. Sliding glass doors open to a covered lanai, extending the living space outdoors for seamless indoor-outdoor living. The Sierra's split bedroom layout ensures space and privacy for all. The primary suite is a true retreat with a tray ceiling with crown molding, a spacious walk-in closet, dual vanities, an oversized tile-surround shower, and a separate soaking tub. On the opposite side of the home, three secondary bedrooms provide flexibility--two share a full bath, while the fourth features a private ensuite, perfect for guests or multi-generational living. Ceramic tile flooring runs through the main living areas, while plush carpet enhances comfort in the bedrooms. A three-car garage, beautiful landscaping, and smart home features--including a Ring Video Doorbell, Smart Thermostat, Keyless Entry Smart Door Lock, and Deako Switches--add convenience, security, and curb appeal. Backed by a full builder warranty, The Sierra combines coastal charm, modern amenities, and thoughtful design in a location that keeps you connected to the best of Sebastian. Step into The Sierra and embrace the ultimate coastal lifestyle today!

2. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-02
   listed $392,900 Active 2062-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2062 chars)

   Pre-Construction. To Be Built. The Sierra floor plan blends modern design with thoughtful functionality, creating a home that feels spacious, inviting, and perfectly suited for today's lifestyle. Located in the desirable Vero Lake Estates, you'll enjoy the relaxed coastal charm of Sebastian, with scenic waterways, fishing, boating, and kayaking along the Indian River Lagoon, all just 5 miles from the beach and close to top golf courses. With no HOA or CDD fees, this home gives you the freedom to live life on your terms. Step inside to discover 9'4'' ceilings and a welcoming foyer that leads to a formal dining room on one side and a den with French doors on the other, providing a quiet space for work or relaxation. The expansive great room flows effortlessly into the stunning kitchen, complete with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, generous cabinetry, and a large center island ideal for entertaining. Sliding glass doors open to a covered lanai, extending the living space outdoors for seamless indoor-outdoor living. The Sierra's split bedroom layout ensures space and privacy for all. The primary suite is a true retreat with a tray ceiling with crown molding, a spacious walk-in closet, dual vanities, an oversized tile-surround shower, and a separate soaking tub. On the opposite side of the home, three secondary bedrooms provide flexibility--two share a full bath, while the fourth features a private ensuite, perfect for guests or multi-generational living. Ceramic tile flooring runs through the main living areas, while plush carpet enhances comfort in the bedrooms. A three-car garage, beautiful landscaping, and smart home features--including a Ring Video Doorbell, Smart Thermostat, Keyless Entry Smart Door Lock, and Deako Switches--add convenience, security, and curb appeal. Backed by a full builder warranty, The Sierra combines coastal charm, modern amenities, and thoughtful design in a location that keeps you connected to the best of Sebastian. Step into The Sierra and embrace the ultimate coastal lifestyle today!

4. 2026-03-02
   listed $392,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (2062 chars)

   Pre-Construction. To Be Built. The Sierra floor plan blends modern design with thoughtful functionality, creating a home that feels spacious, inviting, and perfectly suited for today's lifestyle. Located in the desirable Vero Lake Estates, you'll enjoy the relaxed coastal charm of Sebastian, with scenic waterways, fishing, boating, and kayaking along the Indian River Lagoon, all just 5 miles from the beach and close to top golf courses. With no HOA or CDD fees, this home gives you the freedom to live life on your terms. Step inside to discover 9'4'' ceilings and a welcoming foyer that leads to a formal dining room on one side and a den with French doors on the other, providing a quiet space for work or relaxation. The expansive great room flows effortlessly into the stunning kitchen, complete with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, generous cabinetry, and a large center island ideal for entertaining. Sliding glass doors open to a covered lanai, extending the living space outdoors for seamless indoor-outdoor living. The Sierra's split bedroom layout ensures space and privacy for all. The primary suite is a true retreat with a tray ceiling with crown molding, a spacious walk-in closet, dual vanities, an oversized tile-surround shower, and a separate soaking tub. On the opposite side of the home, three secondary bedrooms provide flexibility--two share a full bath, while the fourth features a private ensuite, perfect for guests or multi-generational living. Ceramic tile flooring runs through the main living areas, while plush carpet enhances comfort in the bedrooms. A three-car garage, beautiful landscaping, and smart home features--including a Ring Video Doorbell, Smart Thermostat, Keyless Entry Smart Door Lock, and Deako Switches--add convenience, security, and curb appeal. Backed by a full builder warranty, The Sierra combines coastal charm, modern amenities, and thoughtful design in a location that keeps you connected to the best of Sebastian. Step into The Sierra and embrace the ultimate coastal lifestyle today!

5. 2025-12-16
   soldstatus $158,900
6. 2025-10-21
   soldstatus $47,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,009
• − Property taxes: −$5,894
• − Insurance: −$7,083
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,421
• − Management: −$2,421
• − Depreciation: −$11,430
• Taxable loss: −$20,999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,040
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River
• NCES district ID: 1200930
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,597
• Composite: 42.45/100
• National rank: #3218
• State rank: #35 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vero Lake Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vero Lake Estates, FL
• County: Indian River County · 143,738 people
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,240
• Household income: $78,058
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 674.0

Population outlook (Indian River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,104 people
• By 2030: 172,869 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 185,640 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 194,465 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 211,115 · +27.9%
• By 2100: 211,781 · +28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 17% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Indian River

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 36.0% · R 63.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.34%
• Current HPI: 282.6156
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.16%
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+727.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — SCMLS
• 2026-03-26 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $392,900 Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $392,900 SCMLS
• 2025-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $158,900 Public Records
• 2025-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $322 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.