161 Brighton Rd · Tonawanda Town, NY 14150

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1945 10,850 sqft lot Est $242k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced below assessed valuation to provide an excellent opportunity for buyer personalization and updates! Charming home with great potential situated on a spacious double lot! Features include replacement windows, hardwood floors under carpets, a covered front porch, gas log fireplace, and a rear hall addition for added functionality. Flexible floor plan offers 1 bedroom on the first floor with 2 additional bedrooms upstairs (walk-through third bedroom). Full bath includes a Jacuzzi tub. Major updates include basement stabilization and drain tile completed in the 1990s and a brand new electrical panel installed in 2026. Outside you’ll find a vinyl privacy fence, concrete turnaround d

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Rear hall addition
• Gas log fireplace

Tags

• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• GAS LOG FIREPLACE
• REAR HALL ADDITION
• VINYL PRIVACY FENCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Circular driveway; Second garage; Three garage spaces
• Utilities: Cable available; Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electrical
• Home design: Single-story home; Vinyl siding; Main thoroughfare frontage; Resale property
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Vinyl siding construction; Poured foundation; Existing (year built details)
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Fully fenced yard; Private yard; Covered porch; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Full, partially finished basement; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($28/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (1.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thomas A Edison Elementary School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 615 students, 40% FRL); Herbert Hoover Middle School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 758 students, 51% FRL); Kenmore West Senior High School (math 74% / reading 57%, grade B, #773 of 1,100 statewide, top 70%, 1,358 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $182,962 (1.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,346
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Zimmerman Blvd	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,009 (-0%)	3mo	$211,050	$209	75
379 Orchard Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	936 (-8%)	3mo	$235,000	$251	65
205 Bannard Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	999 (-2%)	8mo	$186,500	$187	62
105 Oakridge Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,018 (+0%)	8mo	$276,000	$271	61
396 Cleveland Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	962 (-5%)	4mo	$192,000	$200	59
428 Mcconkey Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	936 (-8%)	4mo	$235,000	$251	59
346 Maldiner Ave	0.66mi	3/1.5	999 (-2%)	9mo	$280,000	$280	57
30 Bannard Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (+2%)	2mo	$220,000	$213	56
299 Newell Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,103 (+9%)	2mo	$255,299	$231	51
128 Bannard Ave	0.66mi	2/1.5 (-1)	972 (-4%)	6mo	$168,500	$173	50
18 Joseph Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,096 (+8%)	3mo	$295,000	$269	47
157 Newell Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,131 (+12%)	8mo	$269,900	$239	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-22,536
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $12,848
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,830 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$396 /mo · $4,750/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,827

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $55	+0% $2	+5% $-50	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-70	+0% $2	+5% $75	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $49	base $2	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
285 Crestmount Ave Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,905	$2.63	3d	9	0.41mi
1950 Sheridan Dr Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	704	$1,485	$2.11	3d	5	0.72mi
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	13d	1	0.79mi
148 Colonial Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1240	$2,900	$2.34	25d	1	0.81mi
1835 Military Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,175	$2.04	19d	1	0.89mi
49 Tulane Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	19d	1	1.18mi
36-46 Crowell Ct Unit 40 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	25d	1	1.35mi
52 Somerton Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	25d	1	1.37mi
2776 Eggert Rd #2 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	972	$1,600	$1.65	25d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $185,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   status $185,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   status $185,000 Pending 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-05-23
   listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,750 · $396/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,750 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$4,750
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,756
• − Management: −$1,756
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$2,977
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$714
• After-tax cash flow: $743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $185,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,750 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.