4375 Lindsey Loop · Dover, FL 33527

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,635 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 233 Days on market

Built 1954 0.59 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a great piece of country living with close proximity to the city. Welcome to this 3 bedroom home with added family room for entertaining and a great outdoor inground pool with new pool pump and filter. New kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances, new custom white cabinets and flooring and ample space for a dinette. There is a generous sized living room and adjacent dining area as you enter this charming stucco home. The master bedroom also has its own private bathroom, and there is an interior laundry room with a sink. The yard is landscaped and fenced. The lot is . 59 acre and a sure to please. * New Septic is being installed prior to closing. There is a 2 car carport and so much more. Welcome home

Key facts

• Brick hearth
• Large living room
• Remodeled in 2021

Tags

• REMODELED IN 2021
• FOUR-BEDROOM POOL HOME
• OVERSIZED 2 CAR CARPORT
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• BRICK HEARTH
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#823 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bailey Elementary School (math 49% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 741 students, 66% FRL); Strawberry Crest High School (math 49% / reading 55%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,558 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $125k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.03%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-19,942
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $5,295
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33527

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,534 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$429 /mo · $5,154/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,192

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13340 Lewis Gallagher Rd Dover, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,250	$1.16	24d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2025-12-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-14
   price $230,000
3. 2025-11-14
   status Active
4. 2025-11-14
   price $250,000
5. 2025-08-14
   status Pending
6. 2025-08-14
   price $230,000
7. 2025-07-23
   price $260,000
8. 2025-05-14
   status Active
9. 2025-04-14
   status Pending
10. 2025-03-25
    price $280,000
11. 2025-02-11
    status Active
12. 2025-02-11
    price $290,000
13. 2024-09-23
    status Pending
14. 2024-09-23
    status Active
15. 2024-09-23
    price $275,000
16. 2024-09-03
    status Pending
17. 2024-08-06
    price $300,000
18. 2024-07-12
    listed $355,000 Active
19. 2023-04-06
    historical
20. 2022-12-29
    price $340,000
21. 2022-12-03
    price $350,000
22. 2022-11-25
    listed $364,900 Active
23. 2021-09-24
    soldstatus $296,800
24. 2021-09-23
    soldstatus $296,800 Closed 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    What a great piece of country living with close proximity to the city. Welcome to this 3 bedroom home with added family room for entertaining and a great outdoor inground pool with new pool pump and filter. New kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances, new custom white cabinets and flooring and ample space for a dinette. There is a generous sized living room and adjacent dining area as you enter this charming stucco home. The master bedroom also has its own private bathroom, and there is an interior laundry room with a sink. The yard is landscaped and fenced. The lot is . 59 acre and a sure to please. * New Septic is being installed prior to closing. There is a 2 car carport and so much more. Welcome home

25. 2021-08-05
    status Pending 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    What a great piece of country living with close proximity to the city. Welcome to this 3 bedroom home with added family room for entertaining and a great outdoor inground pool with new pool pump and filter. New kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances, new custom white cabinets and flooring and ample space for a dinette. There is a generous sized living room and adjacent dining area as you enter this charming stucco home. The master bedroom also has its own private bathroom, and there is an interior laundry room with a sink. The yard is landscaped and fenced. The lot is . 59 acre and a sure to please. * New Septic is being installed prior to closing. There is a 2 car carport and so much more. Welcome home

26. 2021-07-15
    listed $329,900 Active 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    What a great piece of country living with close proximity to the city. Welcome to this 3 bedroom home with added family room for entertaining and a great outdoor inground pool with new pool pump and filter. New kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances, new custom white cabinets and flooring and ample space for a dinette. There is a generous sized living room and adjacent dining area as you enter this charming stucco home. The master bedroom also has its own private bathroom, and there is an interior laundry room with a sink. The yard is landscaped and fenced. The lot is . 59 acre and a sure to please. * New Septic is being installed prior to closing. There is a 2 car carport and so much more. Welcome home

27. 2021-02-01
    soldstatus $197,000
28. 2008-07-16
    soldstatus $155,000
29. 2007-12-21
    historical
30. 2007-06-20
    listed $224,900
31. 2007-03-10
    listed $249,900
32. 2006-09-15
    historical
33. 2006-06-14
    listed $275,000
34. 2005-11-03
    soldstatus $135,000
35. 2000-09-08
    soldstatus $80,000
36. 1988-05-01
    soldstatus $49,200
37. 1983-06-01
    soldstatus $45,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,154 · $429/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,154 · $429/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$5,154
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,432
• − Management: −$2,432
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$340
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$81
• After-tax cash flow: $3,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dover

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #823
• US rank: #20141

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 17,364
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,364
• Household income: $80,464
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 433.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.50%
• Current HPI: 324.2363
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+407.7% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-25 Price Changed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $290,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-12 Listed $355,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-29 Price Changed $340,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-03 Price Changed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-25 Listed $364,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $296,800 Public Records
• 2021-09-23 Sold (MLS) $296,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-15 Listed $329,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $197,000 Public Records
• 2008-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2007-12-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-20 Listed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-10 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-14 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1988-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,200 Public Records
• 1983-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,154 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.