58 Periwinkle Dr · Bohemia, NY 11716

$289,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 108 Days on market

Built 1973

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newly renovated 3 Bedroom, possible 4 bedroom. 2 full baths. New upgraded electrical service. New Central air conditioning and heat. New recessed led lighting in all rooms. New lifeproof flooring throughout. All new kitchen with quartz countertop. All new appliances. New Washer and Dryer. New hot water heater. New asphalt roof. New siding. New windows, trim and gutters. New fenced in yard. Great back yard space. Located in the Bunker Hill Valley Forge Community. This is a non age restricted pet friendly community, welcome to all. Monthly hoa fee is currently $1358. NYS STAR discount eligible. No application fees.

Key facts

• Quartz countertop
• New appliances
• Lifeproof flooring

Tags

• UPGRADED ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• RECESSED LED LIGHTING
• LIFEPROOF FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOP
• NEW APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $247,800.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $814 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• Recommended offer: $264k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.5% in Bohemia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#838 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Connetquot Central School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #155 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cherokee Street Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 592 students, 35% FRL); Oakdale-Bohemia Middle School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade A-, #121 of 729 statewide, top 17%, 634 students, 22% FRL); Connetquot High School (math 96% / reading 72%, grade A, #404 of 1,100 statewide, top 37%, 1,757 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,890 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.07%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,800
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Betsy Ross Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+4%)	3mo	$280,000	$192	77
71 Revere Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (-7%)	19mo	$230,000	$177	61
37 Betsy Ross Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,340 (-4%)	20mo	$139,500	$104	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $11,724
• Equity at exit: $36,948

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $77,145
• Equity at exit: $21,425

Cash invested: $69,384 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11716

• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,198 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,299
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$310 /mo · $3,717/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $814

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,168

Max offer price $247,800

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,950
• Closing costs: $7,434
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
400 Adams Way Sayville, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$3,170	$3.19	1d	1	0.42mi
270 Adams Way Unit 270 Sayville, NY	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,975	$2.56	44d	1	0.49mi
100 Adams Way Unit 100 Sayville, NY	2.0	2.0	1160	$3,005	$2.59	21d	1	0.50mi
86 Adams Way Unit 86 Sayville, NY	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,975	$2.56	44d	1	0.52mi
1000 Saddle Rock Rd Holbrook, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$3,390	$3.23	1d	1	0.53mi
320 Adams Way Unit 320 Sayville, NY	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,975	$2.56	44d	1	0.54mi
67 Adams Way Unit 67 Sayville, NY	2.0	2.0	1120	$3,195	$2.85	21d	1	0.56mi
17 Eastover Rd Sayville, NY	2.0	1.0	980	$3,400	$3.47	10d	1	0.68mi
1203 Saddle Rock Rd Unit 1203 Holbrook, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,320	$2.77	44d	1	0.71mi
1301 Dolphin Ln Unit 1301 Holbrook, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,165	$2.64	44d	1	1.08mi
2005 Dolphin Ln Unit 2005 Holbrook, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,155	$2.63	44d	1	1.16mi
2007 Dolphin Ln Unit 2007 Holbrook, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,165	$2.64	44d	1	1.16mi
2200 Dolphin Ln Holbrook, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1150	$3,550	$3.09	1d	1	1.16mi
205 Pine Creek Ave Unit N205 Holbrook, NY	2.0	1.5	1155	$3,445	$2.98	1d	1	1.20mi
49 Island Blvd Unit 49B Bohemia, NY	2.0	1.0	1091	$3,100	$2.84	44d	1	1.29mi
219 Lakeland Ave Unit 1-7B Sayville, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,895	$3.05	44d	1	1.30mi
47 Island Blvd Bohemia, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	917	$3,100	$3.38	1d	1	1.32mi
62 Sunlight Walk Unit 62 Holbrook, NY	2.0	2.0	1366	$3,910	$2.86	1d	1	1.41mi
123 Starlight Walk Unit 123 Holbrook, NY	2.0	1.0	1147	$3,095	$2.70	25d	1	1.42mi
92 Sunlight Walk Unit 92 Holbrook, NY	2.0	2.0	1271	$3,655	$2.88	2d	1	1.45mi
23 Briarlane Walk Unit 23 Holbrook, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$3,000	$3.16	15d	1	1.47mi
138 Starlight Walk Unit 138 Holbrook, NY	2.0	2.0	1190	$3,410	$2.87	22d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-09-14
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-28
   listed $289,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,881
• − Property taxes: −$3,717
• − Insurance: −$1,239
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,070
• − Management: −$3,070
• − Depreciation: −$7,209
• Taxable income: $6,189
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,485
• After-tax cash flow: $8,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Connetquot Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608160
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $88,180
• Composite: 58.89/100
• National rank: #970
• State rank: #155 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bohemia

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #838
• US rank: #16290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bohemia, NY
• City population: 9,750
• Population (ZIP): 9,750

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -213.58%
• Current HPI: 304.9735
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-28 Listed $289,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2012): $281 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.