4210 Wheeler St · Bellmead, TX 76705

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 197 Days on market

Built 1984 0.26 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully Remodeled 3BR 2BA Double-Wide on 0.26 Acres Beautifully fully remodeled double-wide home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths on a 0.26-acre lot. Interior highlights include a spacious open-concept layout, updated finishes throughout, and abundant natural light. Exterior upgrades include a nice front porch with a deck and a covered back patio with an additional deck, offering great outdoor living spaces. Property provides ample room for parking, recreation, or future improvements. Conveniently located just minutes from I-35, TSTC, Baylor University, and Downtown Waco, approximately a 10-minute drive to each. Central location with quick access to major employers, schools, shopping, and dining. Ideal for a primary residence or investment opportunity.

Key facts

• Fully remodeled
• Front porch
• Natural light

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• FRONT PORCH
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($551/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.1% in Bellmead — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#893 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• La Vega ISD (suburban): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #680 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,713 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.99%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,655
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,308
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76705

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,537 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $503/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,479

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1009 Victoria St Waco, TX	3.0	1.5	1728	$1,250	$0.72	20d	1	0.16mi
4307 Bellcrest St Bellmead, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	20d	1	0.27mi
3604 Torrance St Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	1192	$1,600	$1.34	20d	1	0.86mi
1130 Lewis St Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,450	$1.33	20d	1	0.92mi
402 Holmes St Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1328	$1,500	$1.13	13d	1	1.03mi
1011 Kane St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,695	$1.38	43d	1	1.08mi
3500 Meyers Ln Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	684	$1,125	$1.64	13d	1	1.09mi
4509 Rocking K Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,699	$1.31	13d	1	1.15mi
218 Avenue F Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,600	$1.20	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $199,000 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $199,000 Pending 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 192 DOM
7. 2026-05-14
   price $199,000 775-char remark

   Show marketing remark (775 chars)

   Fully Remodeled 3BR 2BA Double-Wide on 0.26 Acres Beautifully fully remodeled double-wide home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths on a 0.26-acre lot. Interior highlights include a spacious open-concept layout, updated finishes throughout, and abundant natural light. Exterior upgrades include a nice front porch with a deck and a covered back patio with an additional deck, offering great outdoor living spaces. Property provides ample room for parking, recreation, or future improvements. Conveniently located just minutes from I-35, TSTC, Baylor University, and Downtown Waco, approximately a 10-minute drive to each. Central location with quick access to major employers, schools, shopping, and dining. Ideal for a primary residence or investment opportunity.

8. 2026-04-01
   price $215,000 775-char remark

   Show marketing remark (775 chars)

   Fully Remodeled 3BR 2BA Double-Wide on 0.26 Acres Beautifully fully remodeled double-wide home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths on a 0.26-acre lot. Interior highlights include a spacious open-concept layout, updated finishes throughout, and abundant natural light. Exterior upgrades include a nice front porch with a deck and a covered back patio with an additional deck, offering great outdoor living spaces. Property provides ample room for parking, recreation, or future improvements. Conveniently located just minutes from I-35, TSTC, Baylor University, and Downtown Waco, approximately a 10-minute drive to each. Central location with quick access to major employers, schools, shopping, and dining. Ideal for a primary residence or investment opportunity.

9. 2026-01-08
   price $225,000 775-char remark

   Show marketing remark (775 chars)

   Fully Remodeled 3BR 2BA Double-Wide on 0.26 Acres Beautifully fully remodeled double-wide home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths on a 0.26-acre lot. Interior highlights include a spacious open-concept layout, updated finishes throughout, and abundant natural light. Exterior upgrades include a nice front porch with a deck and a covered back patio with an additional deck, offering great outdoor living spaces. Property provides ample room for parking, recreation, or future improvements. Conveniently located just minutes from I-35, TSTC, Baylor University, and Downtown Waco, approximately a 10-minute drive to each. Central location with quick access to major employers, schools, shopping, and dining. Ideal for a primary residence or investment opportunity.

10. 2025-11-19
    listed $240,000 Active 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    Fully Remodeled 3BR 2BA Double-Wide on 0.26 Acres Beautifully fully remodeled double-wide home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths on a 0.26-acre lot. Interior highlights include a spacious open-concept layout, updated finishes throughout, and abundant natural light. Exterior upgrades include a nice front porch with a deck and a covered back patio with an additional deck, offering great outdoor living spaces. Property provides ample room for parking, recreation, or future improvements. Conveniently located just minutes from I-35, TSTC, Baylor University, and Downtown Waco, approximately a 10-minute drive to each. Central location with quick access to major employers, schools, shopping, and dining. Ideal for a primary residence or investment opportunity.

11. 2001-04-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $503 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,138/yr (+$262/mo · 623.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$503
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,476
• − Management: −$1,476
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,940
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$706
• After-tax cash flow: $1,256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Vega ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826280
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,539
• Composite: 23.42/100
• National rank: #7892
• State rank: #680 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bellmead

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #893
• US rank: #16031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellmead, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 31,750
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,616
• Household income: $58,236
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 668.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 20% Black 18% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.45%
• Current HPI: 217.9429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.20%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2001-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2021): $503 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.