9023 Gary Cir · Chalco, NE 68138

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · Townhouse public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1975 2,178 sqft lot Est $240k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this maintenance free Millard home including a re-modeled Kitchen, re-modeled bathroom, and new HVAC as well! Water, trash, lawn care, and exterior maintenance are covered by the HOA! Conveniently located off the interstate in a wonderful school district, this home boasts a tandem 1 car garage, spacious bedrooms, and a wood burning fireplace to keep you warm during the long winter months. Also enjoy a swimming pool within walking distance as well as as short drive to Nebraska Outlets in Gretna. Don't hesitate to make your appointment today!

Key facts

• Common area
• Private cul-de-sac
• Walking trails

Tags

• PRIVATE CUL-DE-SAC
• WALKING TRAILS
• COMMON AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $157 annual fee; HOA covers grounds maintenance, pool access and maintenance, clubhouse, snow removal, common area maintenance, and playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered space, total 1 parking space)
• Utilities: Cable available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Residential property; Not new / not a model
• Construction: Masonite exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1975
• Exterior features: Porch; Patio; Sprinkler system; Zero-step entry; Full wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Freezer; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on 2nd floor; Bedroom 2 on 2nd floor; Bedroom 3 on 2nd floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; Main level bathroom available
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Two-story entry; Ceiling fan(s); One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-997/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.4% in Chalco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#46 in NE, #2,335 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Millard Public Schools (urban): math 58% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #13 of 111 in NE (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Norris Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #266 of 502 statewide, top 56%, 431 students, 48% FRL); Millard Central Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #84 of 128 statewide, top 65%, 825 students, 47% FRL); Millard South High School (math 51% / reading 54%, grade C-, #97 of 261 statewide, top 37%, 2,607 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 13% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 59% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Millard Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 71 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,612 units permitted in Sarpy County in 2024 (364 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarpy County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $202,587 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,124
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9012 David Cir	0.02mi	3/3.0	1,535 (+11%)	2mo	$265,000	$173	76
13944 Meadow Ridge Rd	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,494 (+8%)	8mo	$260,000	$174	72
9016 Gary Cir	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,452 (+5%)	22mo	$199,000	$137	70
13801 Meadow Ridge Rd	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,568 (+13%)	18mo	$195,000	$124	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-43,468
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-38,321
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68138

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,403/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,131

Max offer price $230,326

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9002 David Cir Omaha, NE	3.0	3.0	1534	$1,950	$1.27	3d	1	0.02mi
13906 Jennifer Rd Omaha, NE	4.0	2.0	1611	$2,200	$1.37	3d	1	0.24mi
8803 S 143rd St Omaha, NE	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,895	$1.46	3d	1	0.32mi
13041 Cornhusker Rd Omaha, NE	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1222	$2,295	$1.88	3d	13	0.92mi
13106 Chandler Road Plz Omaha, NE	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,589	$1.74	3d	25	1.08mi
7561 S 146th St Omaha, NE	3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$2,418	$2.34	3d	12	1.11mi
13178 Lincoln Rd Omaha, NE	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	1770	$2,245	$1.27	3d	6	1.14mi
13108 Lincoln Rd Omaha, NE	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.5	1584	$2,412	$1.52	3d	11	1.17mi
13530 Josephine St Omaha, NE	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,095	$1.45	14d	1	1.22mi
13616 Emiline Cir Omaha, NE	3.0	1.5	1296	$2,145	$1.66	3d	1	1.42mi
7106 S 145th St Omaha, NE	4.0	3.0	1720	$2,100	$1.22	14d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashlandscapingexterior maint.pool

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $245,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 New 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 New 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-05
    listed $245,000 New 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,403 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,238 · $353/mo
• Expected delta: +$835/yr (+$70/mo · 24.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,403
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$5,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,252
• After-tax cash flow: $255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millard Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3173740
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $81,146
• Composite: 53.23/100
• National rank: #1500
• State rank: #13 of 111 in NE

Livability — Chalco

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #2335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chalco, NE
• County: Sarpy County · 161,202 people
• Metro: Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
• Population (ZIP): 11,713
• Household income: $86,007
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Sarpy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 211,769 people
• By 2030: 229,365 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 264,122 · +24.7%
• By 2050: 298,087 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 381,667 · +80.2%
• By 2100: 448,180 · +111.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarpy

• 2024 margin: R (+11.7) · D 43.5% · R 55.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -15.9pp · 2024: -11.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.7 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+21.8 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.11%
• Current HPI: 250.0183
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+155.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $245,000 GPRMLS
• 2022-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-10 Sold (MLS) $170,000 GPRMLS
• 2022-10-11 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2022-10-10 Price Changed $189,900 GPRMLS
• 2022-09-29 Relisted — GPRMLS
• 2022-09-23 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2022-09-15 Price Changed $194,900 GPRMLS
• 2022-09-06 Listed $200,000 GPRMLS
• 2020-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-09 Sold (MLS) $135,000 GPRMLS
• 2020-09-08 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2020-09-04 Listed $129,900 GPRMLS
• 2009-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2009-10-28 Sold (MLS) $95,000 GPRMLS
• 2009-09-17 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2009-07-19 Listed $96,000 GPRMLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,403 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.