5 Milky Way Dr · Weldon Spring, MO 63304

$275,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1966 0.41 ac lot Est $312k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market. Located in the established Skyview subdivision, this split-foyer home offers 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and 1,290 total square feet on a generous . 41-acre interior lot. Step into the main level where a bright living room flows into the dining area, both with carpeting — and original hardwood flooring preserved underneath. The kitchen features a gas oven/range, and down the hall are three bedrooms with wood flooring, along with a full bathroom and a private half bath in the primary bedroom. The lower level includes a large laundry room, a concrete-floor storage area, and an additional carpeted room with an egress window that can serve as a sleeping area. Recent updates

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1966

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Seller may consider concessions
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized garage (2 garage spaces) and off-street parking — total 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric: other; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Private ownership; One and one-half levels; Fixer condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Back yard with chain link fencing; Interior lot (approx. 0.413 acres); Lot dimensions approximately 101 x 190 x 99

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level with gas appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level; Sleeping area (approx. 24x14)
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level; 1 half bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Attic fan
• Interior features: Gas oven and gas range; 8+ ft poured basement with egress window and storage space; Attic fan, ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($37/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.4% in Weldon Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#78 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Francis Howell R-III (suburban): math 53% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #11 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Independence Elem. (math 63% / reading 69%, grade B+, #60 of 1,115 statewide, top 5%, 753 students, 10% FRL); Bryan Middle (math 52% / reading 62%, grade B, #33 of 391 statewide, top 9%, 813 students, 15% FRL); Francis Howell High (math 50% / reading 71%, grade C+, #33 of 521 statewide, top 6%, 1,835 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 283 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,131 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $312,180
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
801 Haversham Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+9%)	5mo	$360,000	$256	60
2 Towers Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,325 (+3%)	11mo	$320,000	$242	52
728 Jacobs Crossing Drive Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,400 (+8%)	13mo	$529,000	$378	48
1010 Haversham Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+8%)	23mo	$325,000	$232	36
75 S Langfield Ct	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,458 (+13%)	16mo	$349,900	$240	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-45,490
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-43,930
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63304

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,241 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,530/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,237

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $81	+0% $3	+5% $-75	+10% $-153
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-85	+0% $3	+5% $92	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $73	base $3	+0.5pp $-68	+1.0pp $-141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3891 Cambridge Crossing Dr Saint Charles, MO	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,396	$1.59	5d	1	0.93mi
1400 Navaho Trl Saint Charles, MO	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,166	$1.27	13d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $275,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-05-19
   listed $275,000 Active
6. 2026-05-18
   historical $275,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,530 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,668 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$138/yr (+$11/mo · 5.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$2,530
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,152
• − Management: −$2,152
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,717
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,132
• After-tax cash flow: $1,169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Francis Howell R-III
• NCES district ID: 2928950
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $79,768
• Composite: 52.23/100
• National rank: #1602
• State rank: #11 of 324 in MO

Livability — Weldon Spring

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #5250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,195
• Household income: $114,442
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 560.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.72%
• Current HPI: 233.745
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.52%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $275,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Coming Soon $275,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,530 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.