2421 Noyac Rd · Noyack, NY 11963

$1,800,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,177 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2002 0.43 ac lot Est $1859k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Decorator’s Own! Welcome to this beautiful Expanded Ranch, where modern elegance meets classic Hamptons charm. Situated just outside the vibrant Sag Harbor Village, this residence offers a serene escape with a brand new heated gunite pool and access to a private beach association in the exclusive Sunset Shores community. This property features an inviting first-floor Primary suite complete with an updated bath and custom walk-in closet. The first floor also features a powder room and laundry area, spacious living room, and a bright eat-in kitchen featuring marble counters, center island with breakfast bar, and Sub-Zero refrigerator. Flowing seamlessly to the separate dining area, glas

Key facts

• Updated bath
• Heated gunite pool
• 0.43 acre lot

Tags

• HEATED GUNITE POOL
• PRIVATE BEACH ASSOCIATION
• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• UPDATED BATH
• CUSTOM WALK-IN CLOSET
• BRIGHT EAT-IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached private driveway; Garage with door opener; 2-car garage
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction with cedar shake siding
• Exterior features: Private setting; Near shops; Mailbox; Gas grill; Patio; Private in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Granite counters; Eat-in layout; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary suite on main level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Marble counters; Primary bathroom; Chandelier; Skylights; Blinds and screens; Insulated and storm windows; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.80M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($93k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $1.80M).
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 7.1% in Noyack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,084 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sag Harbor Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 426 students, 22% FRL); Pierson Middle/High School (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #763 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 525 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 8% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $178k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $165k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $504k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$285k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $512k; list at $1.80M implies a 252% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,800,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.56%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,859,158
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2421 Noyac Rd	0.00mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,400 (+10%)	1mo	$1,800,000	$750	71
24 Shadyrest Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,932 (-11%)	3mo	$2,225,000	$1,152	64
2885 Deerfield Rd	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,904 (-12%)	4mo	$1,626,000	$854	57
65 Wildwood Rd	0.51mi	3/3.5	2,020 (-7%)	9mo	$1,500,000	$743	50
2803 Noyac Rd	0.69mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,852 (-15%)	2mo	$1,901,000	$1,026	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.19% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $1,496,421
• Equity at exit: $1,515,924

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.53×
• Total profit: $4,301,348
• Equity at exit: $3,162,878

Cash invested: $504,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11963

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,319 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,439
• Tax from tax record: −$438 /mo · $5,256/yr
• Insurance: −$750
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,897
• Net cashflow: $7,739

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,523

Max offer price $1,800,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $450,000
• Closing costs: $54,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2723 Deerfield Rd Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$15,000	$7.50	43d	1	0.43mi
112 Laurel Valley Dr Sag Harbor, NY	4.0	3.0	2400	$20,000	$8.33	1d	1	1.05mi
18 Bay View Rd Southampton, NY	3.0	3.0	2600	$50,000	$19.23	22d	1	1.25mi
1646 Noyack Rd Southampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2458	$40,000	$16.27	22d	1	1.44mi

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,256 · $438/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,838 · $1,487/mo
• Expected delta: +$12,582/yr (+$1,048/mo · 239.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $279,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,828
• − Property taxes: −$5,256
• − Insurance: −$9,666
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,386
• − Management: −$22,386
• − Depreciation: −$52,364
• Taxable income: $66,941
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,066
• After-tax cash flow: $76,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sag Harbor Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,547
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #1222
• State rank: #175 of 590 in NY

Livability — Noyack

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1084
• US rank: #21915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Noyack, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 8,114
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,390
• Household income: $127,746
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.19%
• Current HPI: 499.3304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+181.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-27 Listed $1,800,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $1,849,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Listed $1,900,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-27 Price Changed $1,650,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-18 Listed $1,750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-28 Sold (MLS) $512,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-02 Listed $508,200 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-20 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-21 Listed $629,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-20 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-23 Listed $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $640,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $5,256 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.