68 Three Mi Hbr Hog Crk Hwy · Springs, NY 11937

$2,700,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,040 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market

Built 1947 2.30 ac lot Est $2174k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Breathtaking Sunset Views. Summer sunsets from your west-facing hilltop perch across the street from the multiple marinas edging the tranquil waters of East Hampton's world-famous Three Mile Harbor. Professional chef's kitchen with oversized stainless-steel commercial stove and refrigerator - this kitchen must be seen. Trust us; if you are a serious cook, you cannot live without this irreplaceable space. Designed for those who love to cook, gather, and entertain with ease, this home offers a setting that naturally brings people together. Evenings here are defined by glowing sunsets, open conversations, and effortless indoor-outdoor living. At grade, three bedrooms and two bathrooms on the m

Key facts

• Landscaped grounds
• Outdoor shower
• Room for expansion

Tags

• PROFESSIONAL CHEF'S KITCHEN
• HEATED SWIMMING POOL
• OUTDOOR SHOWER
• EXPANSIVE STONE PATIO
• LANDSCAPED GROUNDS
• ROOM FOR EXPANSION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.70M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-388 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.64M (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.31M (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.31M (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 11.1% in Springs — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Springs School (math 55% / reading 60%, grade C+, #839 of 2,108 statewide, top 40%, 689 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,128/mo this rent would consume 214% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $19k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $81k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.46M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $2,312,756 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,173,600
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
60 Kings Point Rd	0.53mi	4/4.5	3,000 (-1%)	15mo	$2,500,000	$833	59
149 Norfolk Dr	0.45mi	4/6.0	3,110 (+2%)	16mo	$2,225,000	$715	54
16 Pembroke Dr	0.60mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,701 (-11%)	17mo	$1,775,000	$657	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-339,676
• Equity at exit: $402,579

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $230,078
• Equity at exit: $233,447

Cash invested: $756,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,159
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3,375 /mo · $40,500/yr
• Insurance: −$1,125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,857
• Net cashflow: $-388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $23,619

Max offer price $2,643,809

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,478	-5% $545	+0% $-388	+5% $-1,321	+10% $-2,254
Rent	-10% $-2,215	-5% $-1,302	+0% $-388	+5% $525	+10% $1,439
Rate	-1.0pp $971	-0.5pp $298	base $-388	+0.5pp $-1,088	+1.0pp $-1,800

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $675,000
• Closing costs: $81,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Waterhole Rd East Hampton, NY	4.0	2.5	2500	$65,000	$26.00	26d	1	0.43mi
83 Rutland Rd East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2500	$20,000	$8.00	45d	1	0.59mi
89 Isle of Wight Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2600	$6,000	$2.31	20d	1	0.61mi
63 Isle of Wight Rd East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2400	$13,000	$5.42	45d	1	0.64mi
1039 Springs Fireplace Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.0	2500	$85,000	$34.00	45d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-22
   listed $2,700,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $277,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$151,242
• − Property taxes: −$40,500
• − Insurance: −$13,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,202
• − Management: −$22,202
• − Depreciation: −$78,545
• Taxable loss: −$50,662
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12,159
• After-tax cash flow: $7,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Listed $2,700,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid