2202 Weeping Willow Ln · Mount Joy, PA 17552

$389,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,081 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2003 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Semi-with open vaulted space for light & bright! One floor living with 1st floor Master suite & laundry on main level. The finished basement offers a large Familyrm/Den & office. Great storage, closets up and down, 3 walk-ins. 1 yr HMS warranty for peace of mind too! No homes to be built behind this one. .. line of sight will remain open! Come enjoy the enlarged patio and attractive landscaping.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2003
• Listed 3 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $642 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $390k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.6% in Mount Joy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#59 in PA, #410 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D.
• Manheim Central SD (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #242 of 539 in PA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,086/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 429% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $390k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $389,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.05%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-22,325
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $33,155
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17552

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 15.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$379 /mo · $4,551/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$858
• Net cashflow: $642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,274

Max offer price $389,900

Occupancy floor 79%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1.5	$4,086
Total (2 units)			$4,086

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-21
   listed $389,900 Active
3. 2026-03-20
   historical $389,900
4. 2016-09-28
   soldstatus $214,900
5. 2016-09-23
   soldstatus $214,900 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Beautiful Semi-with open vaulted space for light & bright! One floor living with 1st floor Master suite & laundry on main level. The finished basement offers a large Familyrm/Den & office. Great storage, closets up and down, 3 walk-ins. 1 yr HMS warranty for peace of mind too! No homes to be built behind this one. .. line of sight will remain open! Come enjoy the enlarged patio and attractive landscaping.

6. 2016-08-16
   historical 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Beautiful Semi-with open vaulted space for light & bright! One floor living with 1st floor Master suite & laundry on main level. The finished basement offers a large Familyrm/Den & office. Great storage, closets up and down, 3 walk-ins. 1 yr HMS warranty for peace of mind too! No homes to be built behind this one. .. line of sight will remain open! Come enjoy the enlarged patio and attractive landscaping.

7. 2016-07-26
   listed $214,900 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Beautiful Semi-with open vaulted space for light & bright! One floor living with 1st floor Master suite & laundry on main level. The finished basement offers a large Familyrm/Den & office. Great storage, closets up and down, 3 walk-ins. 1 yr HMS warranty for peace of mind too! No homes to be built behind this one. .. line of sight will remain open! Come enjoy the enlarged patio and attractive landscaping.

8. 2003-08-22
   soldstatus $173,725 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   LOT #119 UNIQUE FLOOR PLAN WITH GOOD COMBINATION OF TRADITIONAL AND CONTEMPORARY. VAULTED CEILING, FIRST FLOOR MASTER BEDROOM WITH PRIVATE BATH AND WALK-IN CLOSET, FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY, GAS HEAT, FULL BASEMENT, FINISHED TWO CAR GARAGE. TONS OF OPTIONS LET YOU PERSONALIZE YOUR HOME TO SUIT YOUR NEEDS. PREFER DETACHED? WE'LL BUILD THIS HOME AS A SINGLE ON A DIFFERENT LOT.

9. 2003-06-26
   listed $175,419 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   LOT #119 UNIQUE FLOOR PLAN WITH GOOD COMBINATION OF TRADITIONAL AND CONTEMPORARY. VAULTED CEILING, FIRST FLOOR MASTER BEDROOM WITH PRIVATE BATH AND WALK-IN CLOSET, FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY, GAS HEAT, FULL BASEMENT, FINISHED TWO CAR GARAGE. TONS OF OPTIONS LET YOU PERSONALIZE YOUR HOME TO SUIT YOUR NEEDS. PREFER DETACHED? WE'LL BUILD THIS HOME AS A SINGLE ON A DIFFERENT LOT.

10. 2003-06-26
    historical 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    LOT #119 UNIQUE FLOOR PLAN WITH GOOD COMBINATION OF TRADITIONAL AND CONTEMPORARY. VAULTED CEILING, FIRST FLOOR MASTER BEDROOM WITH PRIVATE BATH AND WALK-IN CLOSET, FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY, GAS HEAT, FULL BASEMENT, FINISHED TWO CAR GARAGE. TONS OF OPTIONS LET YOU PERSONALIZE YOUR HOME TO SUIT YOUR NEEDS. PREFER DETACHED? WE'LL BUILD THIS HOME AS A SINGLE ON A DIFFERENT LOT.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,551 · $379/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,356 · $446/mo
• Expected delta: +$805/yr (+$67/mo · 17.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$4,551
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,923
• − Management: −$3,923
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable income: $1,503
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$361
• After-tax cash flow: $7,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manheim Central SD
• NCES district ID: 4214550
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,723
• Composite: 40.02/100
• National rank: #3825
• State rank: #242 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Joy

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #410

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 19,761
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 19,761
• Household income: $97,683
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 429.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.72%
• Current HPI: 260.7061
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+122.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $389,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-20 Coming Soon $389,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $214,900 Public Records
• 2016-09-23 Sold (MLS) $214,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-07-26 Listed $214,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-08-22 Sold (MLS) $173,725 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-06-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-06-26 Listed $175,419 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,551 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.