4246 Bleeker Rd · Vernon, NY 13476

$65,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,484 sqft · SingleFamily · 284 Days on market

Built 1880 1.00 ac lot Est $55k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

The work to bring this beauty back to life has been started but it needs your vision to realize the full potential. The proposed floor plan allows for a large kitchen, a first floor primary suite and 2 bedrooms on the second floor along with an open area for additional living space, a deck on the rear and a front porch. You’ll enjoy the convenience of a 1st fl laundry and a mud room with storage. Sitting on a 1 acre lot. This home is not currently in livable condition. It has no heating system or plumbing. Owner is a contractor and is willing to finish the house for a buyer at price to be determined. He has professionally prepared blueprints that he will sell separately.

Key facts

• Front porch
• 1st fl laundry
• Large kitchen

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• FIRST FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• DECK ON THE REAR
• FRONT PORCH
• 1 ACRE LOT
• 1ST FL LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $575 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#685 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Sherrill City School District (rural): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #439 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $65k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.93%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $54,648
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4246 Bleeker Rd	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,484 (0%)	1mo	$55,000	$22	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $45,795
• Equity at exit: $30,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.05×
• Total profit: $110,121
• Equity at exit: $48,302

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13476

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-03-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-19
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-08-05
   status Active
4. 2025-05-17
   status Pending
5. 2025-03-06
   listed $65,000 Active
6. 2025-03-04
   historical
7. 2025-03-04
   historical
8. 2024-10-02
   price $70,000
9. 2024-03-04
   listed $80,000 Active
10. 2024-03-04
    listed $350,000 Active
11. 2024-02-29
    historical
12. 2024-02-29
    historical
13. 2023-09-06
    price $90,000
14. 2022-02-28
    listed $115,000 Active
15. 2022-02-28
    listed $350,000 Active
16. 2022-01-23
    historical
17. 2021-10-15
    historical
18. 2021-07-23
    listed $115,000 Active
19. 2021-04-15
    listed $350,000 Active
20. 2018-09-10
    soldstatus $29,000
21. 2018-06-22
    listed $29,990
22. 2017-06-20
    listed $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,561
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $6,239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,497
• After-tax cash flow: $5,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sherrill City School District
• NCES district ID: 3626760
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,927
• Composite: 39.76/100
• National rank: #3888
• State rank: #439 of 590 in NY

Livability — Vernon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #685
• US rank: #12950

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,540

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Current HPI: 293.015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+117.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-02-19 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-08-05 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-05-17 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-03-06 Listed $65,000 CNYIS
• 2025-03-04 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-03-04 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $70,000 CNYIS
• 2024-03-04 Listed $350,000 CNYIS
• 2024-03-04 Listed $80,000 CNYIS
• 2024-02-29 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2024-02-29 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2023-09-06 Price Changed $90,000 CNYIS
• 2022-02-28 Listed $350,000 CNYIS
• 2022-02-28 Listed $115,000 CNYIS
• 2022-01-23 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2021-10-15 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2021-07-23 Listed $115,000 CNYIS
• 2021-04-15 Listed $350,000 CNYIS
• 2018-09-10 Sold (MLS) $29,000 CNYIS
• 2018-06-22 Listed $29,990 CNYIS
• 2017-06-20 Listed $29,900 CNYIS