1330 Sapphire Palms Ct · San Leon, TX 77539

$337,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,613 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 190 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 8,572 sqft lot $209/sqft · 18% below area Est $401k · 16% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Sapphire Palms, a gated new-construction community offering an elevated yet approachable coastal lifestyle in San Leon. This intimate 22-home neighborhood features thoughtfully designed homes with covered front porches, modern finishes, and flexible living spaces ideal for everyday living or a weekend escape. Inside, enjoy vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas, tiled bathrooms, and quartz countertops in the kitchen and baths. Select floor plans offer the option for a rear porch off the primary bedroom, extending your living space outdoors and inviting in coastal breezes. With no HOA and short-term rental friendly flexibility, Sapphire Palms is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers seeking quality new construction at an attainable price point, as well as second-home buyers looking for a low-maintenance coastal retreat near the bay.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Quartz countertops
• New construction

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• COVERED FRONT PORCHES
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• TILED BATHROOMS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $337k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-601 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.7% in San Leon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#899 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Leon El (math 27% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 658 students, 84% FRL); R D Mcadams J H (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 65% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 844 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,793 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $401,043
• List price: $337,000
• Delta: -15.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1311 Sapphire Palms Ct	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,567 (-3%)	13mo	$330,000	$211	82
2364 Bryan St	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-7%)	14mo	$449,500	$300	68
1306 23rd St	0.21mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,622 (+1%)	19mo	$399,900	$247	66
1547 John St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (-10%)	1mo	$489,999	$340	65
1319 Sapphire Palms Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (-15%)	10mo	$293,550	$213	60
2424 Avenue N	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,764 (+9%)	16mo	$449,000	$255	59
1331 Sapphire Palms Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (-15%)	15mo	$330,000	$240	56
1218 Island Dr	0.28mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,434 (-11%)	7mo	$439,900	$307	54
1343 Sapphire Palms Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (-15%)	18mo	$285,000	$207	54
1631 25th St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,504 (-7%)	19mo	$350,500	$233	44
1647 25th St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-13%)	16mo	$350,000	$249	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-101,180
• Equity at exit: $50,248

10-year hold

• IRR: -74.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.79×
• Total profit: $-169,325
• Equity at exit: $29,138

Cash invested: $94,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 32.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $384,000 ($225/sqft)
• Median days on market: 152 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77539

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 844
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,970 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,767
• Tax from tax record: −$613 /mo · $7,362/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-601

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,731

Max offer price $230,793

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-410	-5% $-506	+0% $-601	+5% $-697	+10% $-792
Rent	-10% $-836	-5% $-719	+0% $-601	+5% $-484	+10% $-367
Rate	-1.0pp $-432	-0.5pp $-516	base $-601	+0.5pp $-689	+1.0pp $-777

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,250
• Closing costs: $10,110
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2735 Broadway St Unit 1546437P San Leon, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$4,994	$2.75	61d	1	1.37mi
535 12th St Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,950	$1.56	46d	1	1.50mi
535 12th St San Leon, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,850	$1.48	2d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-07-11
   days on market $337,000 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-07-10
   days on market $337,000 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-07-09
   days on market $337,000 Active 188 DOM
4. 2026-07-07
   days on market $337,000 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-07-06
   days on market $337,000 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-07-06
   days on market $337,000 Active 184 DOM
7. 2026-07-05
   days on market $337,000 Active 183 DOM
8. 2026-07-03
   days on market $337,000 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-07-02
   days on market $337,000 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-07-01
    days on market $337,000 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-06-30
    days on market $337,000 Active 179 DOM
12. 2026-06-29
    days on market $337,000 Active 178 DOM
13. 2026-06-28
    days on market $337,000 Active 177 DOM
14. 2026-06-27
    days on market $337,000 Active 176 DOM
15. 2026-06-26
    days on market $337,000 Active 175 DOM
16. 2026-06-24
    days on market $337,000 Active 173 DOM
17. 2026-06-22
    days on market $337,000 Active 171 DOM
18. 2026-06-21
    days on market $337,000 Active 170 DOM
19. 2026-06-18
    days on market $337,000 Active 167 DOM
20. 2026-06-17
    days on market $337,000 Active 166 DOM
21. 2026-06-16
    days on market $337,000 Active 165 DOM
22. 2026-06-15
    days on market $337,000 Active 164 DOM
23. 2026-06-13
    days on market $337,000 Active 162 DOM
24. 2026-06-09
    days on market $337,000 Active 158 DOM
25. 2026-06-08
    days on market $337,000 Active 157 DOM
26. 2026-06-07
    days on market $337,000 Active 156 DOM
27. 2026-06-04
    days on market $337,000 Active 153 DOM
28. 2026-06-03
    days on market $337,000 Active 152 DOM
29. 2026-06-02
    days on market $337,000 Active 151 DOM
30. 2026-06-02
    days on market $337,000 Active 150 DOM
31. 2026-05-31
    days on market $337,000 Active 149 DOM
32. 2026-03-24
    price $337,000 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    Welcome to Sapphire Palms, a gated new-construction community offering an elevated yet approachable coastal lifestyle in San Leon. This intimate 22-home neighborhood features thoughtfully designed homes with covered front porches, modern finishes, and flexible living spaces ideal for everyday living or a weekend escape. Inside, enjoy vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas, tiled bathrooms, and quartz countertops in the kitchen and baths. Select floor plans offer the option for a rear porch off the primary bedroom, extending your living space outdoors and inviting in coastal breezes. With no HOA and short-term rental friendly flexibility, Sapphire Palms is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers seeking quality new construction at an attainable price point, as well as second-home buyers looking for a low-maintenance coastal retreat near the bay.

33. 2026-01-02
    listed $330,000 Active 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    Welcome to Sapphire Palms, a gated new-construction community offering an elevated yet approachable coastal lifestyle in San Leon. This intimate 22-home neighborhood features thoughtfully designed homes with covered front porches, modern finishes, and flexible living spaces ideal for everyday living or a weekend escape. Inside, enjoy vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas, tiled bathrooms, and quartz countertops in the kitchen and baths. Select floor plans offer the option for a rear porch off the primary bedroom, extending your living space outdoors and inviting in coastal breezes. With no HOA and short-term rental friendly flexibility, Sapphire Palms is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers seeking quality new construction at an attainable price point, as well as second-home buyers looking for a low-maintenance coastal retreat near the bay.

34. 2025-12-17
    historical
35. 2025-02-12
    listed $330,000 Active
36. 2025-02-12
    historical
37. 2024-12-17
    listed $330,000 Active
38. 2024-11-26
    historical
39. 2024-02-15
    historical
40. 2023-11-22
    status Active
41. 2023-11-03
    historical
42. 2023-10-05
    price $299,000
43. 2023-10-04
    listed $295,000 Active
44. 2023-08-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,362 · $613/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,362 · $613/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,877
• − Property taxes: −$7,362
• − Insurance: −$6,804
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,851
• − Management: −$2,851
• − Depreciation: −$9,804
• Taxable loss: −$12,906
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,097
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Sapphire Palms is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates to the exterior and interior that would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Improves interior appearance and value ↑
• Both Install new flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Enhances functionality and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary San Leon El F TX #3,013/4,322 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle R D Mcadams J H F TX #805/1,662 Nat'l #7,206/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — San Leon

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #899
• US rank: #16159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Leon, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,375
• Household income: $89,111
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

---

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
• Current HPI: 258.0104
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+14.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $337,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-12 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-17 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-26 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2024-02-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-11-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-11-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-05 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-04 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+188.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,362 · +25.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.