551 Wall St · North Tonawanda, NY 14120

$224,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,682 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1900 0.26 ac lot Est $298k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 551 Wall Street. Character and charms abounds at this expansive 4 Bedroom and 2 Full Bath Two Story Home in North Tonawanda that has been owned by the same family since 1944. A wood shake shingle story book exterior and new front concrete porch welcomes you into this special home. The inviting living room and formal dining room boasts gleaming hardwood and flows seamlessly into the spacious family room addition perfect for entertaining. A tasteful galley kitchen offers an abundance of cabinet storage and stainless appliances. The main floor primary bedroom suite is a rare find and features a dual-entry full bath with a full vanity and walk-in shower. Upstairs you will find more b

Key facts

• Dual-entry full bath
• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• WOOD SHAKE SHINGLE EXTERIOR
• NEW FRONT CONCRETE PORCH
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM ADDITION
• TASTEFUL GALLEY KITCHEN
• ABUNDANCE OF CABINET STORAGE
• DUAL-ENTRY FULL BATH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with storage; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Two-story existing home; Resale property
• Construction: Shake and wood siding; Asphalt architectural shingle roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Open porch; Deck; Barn(s) and outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first level; Three additional bedrooms on the second level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Luxury vinyl; Tile; Varied flooring throughout
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms total; One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Separate/formal living room; Natural woodwork; Main-level primary bedroom; Primary suite with primary bath
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($85/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• North Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #398 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ohio Elementary School (math 34% / reading 64%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 371 students, 0% FRL); North Tonawanda Middle School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 447 students, 50% FRL); North Tonawanda High School (math 93% / reading 64%, grade A-, #562 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 1,001 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $194,756 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.13%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,714
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1694 Fillner Ave	0.23mi	4/1.0	1,640 (-2%)	1mo	$262,000	$160	80
1508 Dangelo Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,661 (-1%)	14mo	$347,333	$209	72
1275 Pierce Ave	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,788 (+6%)	15mo	$239,000	$134	67
1675 Fillner Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,634 (-3%)	21mo	$290,000	$177	56
1520 Kingston Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+6%)	12mo	$215,000	$120	55
504 Old Falls Blvd	0.12mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,483 (-12%)	18mo	$352,500	$238	53
4039 Lockport Ave	0.58mi	4/1.5	1,606 (-4%)	14mo	$310,000	$193	52
897 Fairmont Ave	0.71mi	4/2.5	1,792 (+6%)	9mo	$280,000	$156	46
1281 Sherwood Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,856 (+10%)	10mo	$312,000	$168	44
36 Sherwood Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,817 (+8%)	23mo	$440,000	$242	42
1390 Sherwood Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,500 (-11%)	12mo	$280,000	$187	40
1507 Kingston Ave	0.37mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,898 (+13%)	21mo	$332,500	$175	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-30,007
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $554
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14120

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,948 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,101/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,939

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $134	-5% $71	+0% $7	+5% $-57	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-147	-5% $-70	+0% $7	+5% $84	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $120	-0.5pp $64	base $7	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
157 Fairgreen Dr Unit Right side Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,300	$1.53	3d	1	1.44mi
757 Remington Dr Unit 1 North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	12d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $224,900 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $224,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $224,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $224,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $224,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,101 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,451 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$350/yr (+$29/mo · 11.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$3,101
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,870
• − Management: −$1,870
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$3,734
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$896
• After-tax cash flow: $981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621240
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,348
• Composite: 42.15/100
• National rank: #3301
• State rank: #398 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Tonawanda, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,241
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1303.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.39%
• Current HPI: 303.1744
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $224,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,101 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.