5119 Deer Rdg · St. Martins, MO 65109

$525,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,702 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1998 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing investment opportunity. Great rental history, well kept building in great location.

Key facts

• Partially updated
• Desirable unit mix
• Newer roof

Tags

• 4 UNIT APARTMENT BUILDING
• PARTIALLY UPDATED
• DESIRABLE UNIT MIX
• UNDER MARKET RENTS
• RECENT IMPROVEMENTS
• NEWER ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Rented units with current actual rents: 2‑bed units reported at $850, $700 and $700; 2‑bed units also at $850 (various units); 3‑bed units reported at $1,200, $1,200, $1,200 and $1,200 (various units)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Additional parking available
• Home design: Residential income property
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; 0.3-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: Multiple units: 2‑bedroom and 3‑bedroom apartment types (several of each)
• Bathrooms: Eight full bathrooms (total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (electric)
• Interior features: Basement with walk-out access
• Laundry & utility: Laundry features listed as other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $504 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $126/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $467k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $467k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson City (urban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #121 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.2%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 173 units permitted in Cole County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,671/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 984% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cole County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $147k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($509k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $467,100 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.12%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-28,471
• Equity at exit: $78,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $128,098
• Equity at exit: $45,392

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65109

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 37.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,671 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,567/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$981
• Net cashflow: $504

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,033

Max offer price $525,000

Occupancy floor 84%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	2	$4,672
Total (4 units)			$4,671

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $525,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $525,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $525,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $525,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $525,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $525,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $525,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $525,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $525,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $525,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $525,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $525,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $525,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $525,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $525,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $525,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $525,000 Active 36 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    listed $525,000 Active
19. 2021-07-30
    soldstatus 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    Amazing investment opportunity. Great rental history, well kept building in great location.

20. 2021-04-26
    listed $310,000 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    Amazing investment opportunity. Great rental history, well kept building in great location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,567 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,092 · $424/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,526/yr (+$210/mo · 98.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$2,567
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,484
• − Management: −$4,484
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$2,789
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$669
• After-tax cash flow: $6,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson City
• NCES district ID: 2916190
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,903
• Composite: 35.45/100
• National rank: #4930
• State rank: #121 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Martins

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Cole County · 41,145 people
• Metro: Jefferson City, MO
• Population (ZIP): 41,145
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 984.0

Population outlook (Cole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,107 people
• By 2030: 78,089 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 76,814 · -1.7%
• By 2050: 74,515 · -4.6%
• By 2075: 67,687 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 55,023 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cole

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.4) · D 32.1% · R 66.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -34.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.4 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.14%
• Current HPI: 202.01
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.19%
• Metro: Jefferson City, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+69.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $525,000 JCMLS
• 2021-07-30 Sold (MLS) — JCMLS
• 2021-04-26 Listed $310,000 JCMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,567 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.