111 Orchard St · Catlin, IL 61817

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2005 0.43 ac lot Est $143k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 111 Orchard St. in Catlin! This spacious 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch offers approximately 1,280 sq ft of single-level living on a generous 0.43-acre lot. The home features a large living room, separate dining area, eat-in kitchen, first-floor laundry, and a functional open layout with plenty of room to make it your own. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space and opens nicely to the dining and living areas, making everyday living and entertaining easy. Outside, enjoy nearly a half-acre with mature trees, a large yard, deck, patio, front porch, shed, and plenty of room to garden, play, entertain, or simply enjoy the outdoor space. The detached 2.5-car garage and long asphal

Key facts

• Large living room
• Open layout
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• OPEN LAYOUT
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approx. 130 x 143 (.25-.49 acre); Lot size source: county records; Zoning: single-family
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener; Owned driveway; Asphalt surfaces; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces (listed); Approximately 12.5 total parking spaces (listed)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story; Fee simple ownership; Built approximately 21-25 years ago; School bus service
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Deck (20 x 13); Patio; Level lot; Curbs, sidewalks, paved streets

Interior

• Kitchen: Galley kitchen (15 x 10) with laminate flooring; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level (12 x 10) with carpet; Second bedroom on main level (12 x 10) with carpet; Third bedroom on main level (12 x 10) with carpet
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with garden tub
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Storm door(s); Window screens; 7 total rooms; Unfinished attic; Crawl space basement; Separate dining room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry (6 x 4) with gas dryer hookup, in-unit; Circuit breaker electric

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $90k (27.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $90k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#522 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Zoned schools: Salt Fork South Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,517 of 2,056 statewide, top 78%, 164 students, 0% FRL); Salt Fork Junior High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #256 of 665 statewide, top 41%, 186 students, 0% FRL); Salt Fork High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #528 of 693 statewide, top 82%, 247 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 8 units permitted in Vermilion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Vermilion County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $90k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $90,340 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.73%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,360
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 Huntington Park Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-2%)	4mo	$144,900	$116	69
427 Merrill St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,353 (+6%)	4mo	$175,000	$129	62
114 Paris St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,404 (+10%)	6mo	$101,500	$72	60
108 W Fleming St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+2%)	23mo	$134,900	$104	58
108 W Fleming St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+2%)	23mo	$134,900	$104	58
424 Merrill St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-5%)	13mo	$135,000	$111	57
108 Coronado	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,326 (+4%)	19mo	$148,500	$112	57
12735 Catlin Tilton Rd	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,356 (+6%)	8mo	$162,500	$120	52
114 Mapleleaf Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+13%)	2mo	$213,900	$148	49
103 Taylor Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+6%)	10mo	$179,900	$132	46
104 Taylor Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,371 (+7%)	13mo	$90,750	$66	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $55,653
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $173,857
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61817

• Home prices YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $961 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,977/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $-196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,210

Max offer price $90,340

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-125	-5% $-161	+0% $-196	+5% $-232	+10% $-267
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-234	+0% $-196	+5% $-158	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-133	-0.5pp $-164	base $-196	+0.5pp $-229	+1.0pp $-262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Wabash Ave Catlin, IL	3.0	1.0	1150	$950	$0.83	45d	1	0.08mi
211 Martin Ct Apt A Catlin, IL	2.0	1.5	990	$975	$0.98	4d	1	0.10mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,977 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,977 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,536
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,977
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$923
• − Management: −$923
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$4,550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,092
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Catlin

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #522
• US rank: #10766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Catlin, IL
• Population (ZIP): 2,447

Population outlook (Vermilion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 72,775 people
• By 2030: 69,235 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 62,360 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 55,539 · -23.7%
• By 2075: 40,606 · -44.2%
• By 2100: 26,985 · -62.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Vermilion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.7) · D 31.4% · R 67.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.6pp · 2024: -35.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.7 2020: R+32.9 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+15.7 2008: D+0.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.05%
• Current HPI: 260.408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+56.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $125,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,977 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.