86 NH Route 4A Unit 5U · Lebanon, NH 03766

$199,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 220 Days on market

Built 2025 $216/sqft · 136% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this brand-new, 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home overlooking Mascoma Lake. The open-concept layout features a modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances, a spacious farmhouse sink, and convenient washer/dryer hookups. Enjoy peaceful lakeside living surrounded by nature, just steps from the scenic rail trail. Located minutes from Lebanon’s amenities, including Dartmouth Health, highway access, restaurants, and shopping.

Key facts

• Lakeside living
• Scenic rail trail
• Farmhouse sink

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• WASHER DRYER HOOKUPS
• LAKESIDE LIVING
• SCENIC RAIL TRAIL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $733 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.2% in Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#59 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lebanon School District (town): math 48% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #26 of 98 in NH (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 43 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.70%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,550
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: 148.29%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
86 NH Route 4A Unit 18UP	0.00mi	2/2.0	905 (-2%)	4mo	$125,000	$138	90
86 NH Route 4A Unit 6 Upper	0.07mi	3/1.5 (+1)	919 (-0%)	6mo	$126,000	$137	84
86 NH Route 4A Unit 2 Up	0.07mi	2/2.0	924 (0%)	14mo	$149,000	$161	81
86 NH Route 4A Park Unit 7L	0.07mi	2/1.5	840 (-9%)	7mo	$129,900	$155	74
56 Daniels Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0	952 (+3%)	1mo	$35,000	$37	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $23,415
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $120,985
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03766

• Home prices YoY: -10.6%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,459 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $936/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $733

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,532

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,999 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,999 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 216 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,999 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,999 Active 213 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,999 Active 208 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,999 Active 200 DOM
16. 2025-11-11
    listed $199,999 Active 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    Welcome home to this brand-new, 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home overlooking Mascoma Lake. The open-concept layout features a modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances, a spacious farmhouse sink, and convenient washer/dryer hookups. Enjoy peaceful lakeside living surrounded by nature, just steps from the scenic rail trail. Located minutes from Lebanon’s amenities, including Dartmouth Health, highway access, restaurants, and shopping.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $936 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,648 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,712/yr (+$143/mo · 182.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$936
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,361
• − Management: −$2,361
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $5,832
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,400
• After-tax cash flow: $7,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lebanon School District
• NCES district ID: 3304230
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,648
• Composite: 46.7/100
• National rank: #2401
• State rank: #26 of 98 in NH

Livability — Lebanon

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #9879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lebanon, NH
• County: Grafton County · 11,195 people
• City population: 11,195
• Metro: Lebanon, NH-VT
• Population (ZIP): 11,195
• Household income: $100,881
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 488.0

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.72%
• Current HPI: 368.6264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.60%
• Metro: Lebanon, NH-VT
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-11 Listed $199,999 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $936 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.