1651 Seadrift Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$244,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 5,532 sqft lot $159/sqft · 15% below area Est $289k · 15% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully three bedroom, two bathroom home in the sought-after city of Forney. With over 1,500 square feet of stylish, open-concept living space, this home blends modern design with comfortable living. The spacious interior features sleek granite countertops in the kitchen, perfect for both everyday cooking and entertaining. The seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas creates an inviting atmosphere with plenty of natural light. Retreat to the generously-sized master suite, complete with a private en-suite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a home office, guest room, or family space. Both bathrooms have been thoughtfully designed with contemporary finishes, including granite and elegant fixtures. ALSO the entire interior of the home has been given a new paint job including the baseboards and doors. Whether you’re unwinding in your backyard or taking a stroll through the park, this home offers the perfect balance of privacy and community.

Key facts

• Backyard
• Granite countertops
• 5,532 sq ft lot

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• CONTEMPORARY FINISHES
• BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-411 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,357 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.19%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,533
• List price: $244,900
• Delta: -15.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1651 Seadrift Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,536 (0%)	1mo	$244,900	$159	100
1074 Old Oaks Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+0%)	13mo	$265,000	$172	86
1268 Delmita Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+0%)	12mo	$259,990	$169	85
1408 Sebastian Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,536 (0%)	8mo	$265,000	$173	84
1640 Seadrift Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,510 (-2%)	21mo	$279,000	$185	78
1065 Old Oaks Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-9%)	10mo	$289,000	$206	75
1659 Seadrift Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-13%)	4mo	$244,500	$184	73
1247 Delmita Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-13%)	7mo	$250,000	$188	65
4423 Culrin Way	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (-2%)	4mo	$229,900	$154	60
6267 Unbridled Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-14%)	10mo	$237,000	$180	60
1406 Sebastian Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-13%)	16mo	$259,900	$195	55
4328 Johnstown Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (-0%)	22mo	$250,000	$163	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-68,832
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-105,491
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,071 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$626 /mo · $7,509/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,591

Max offer price $172,357

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-272	-5% $-341	+0% $-411	+5% $-480	+10% $-549
Rent	-10% $-574	-5% $-492	+0% $-411	+5% $-329	+10% $-247
Rate	-1.0pp $-287	-0.5pp $-348	base $-411	+0.5pp $-474	+1.0pp $-539

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1102 Old Oaks Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2232	$2,375	$1.06	45d	1	0.09mi
6101 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,850	$1.28	45d	1	0.13mi
6077 Determine Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,995	$1.33	25d	1	0.15mi
6084 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,700	$1.37	4d	1	0.17mi
6038 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,895	$1.54	45d	1	0.26mi
5811 Grindstone Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,999	$1.39	45d	1	0.32mi
6021 Determine Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,095	$1.40	25d	1	0.33mi
6011 Determine Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	5d	1	0.37mi
6001 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,679	$1.17	23d	1	0.41mi
5628 Elwood Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,750	$1.18	0d	1	0.42mi
5906 Nyquist Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,999	$1.33	45d	1	0.52mi
5452 Montrose Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,750	$1.48	5d	1	0.55mi
2157 Clarion Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,975	$1.23	45d	1	0.72mi
4101 Wintergreen Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,645	$1.33	7d	1	0.76mi
4307 Johnstown Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,745	$1.40	25d	1	0.78mi
2412 Bold Venture Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,895	$1.31	45d	1	0.83mi
2402 Buchanan Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,399	$1.29	25d	1	0.92mi
2402 Buchanan Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,299	$1.24	3d	1	0.92mi
2401 Lalun Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,089	$1.13	8d	1	0.94mi
5537 Berea St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,780	$1.44	0d	1	1.03mi
5516 Berea St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,875	$1.48	45d	1	1.04mi
5529 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	7d	1	1.07mi
5529 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	14d	1	1.07mi
5693 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1685	$1,839	$1.09	8d	1	1.08mi
5681 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$2,070	$1.06	22d	1	1.08mi
5661 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,995	$1.25	5d	1	1.09mi
5672 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,999	$1.03	8d	1	1.11mi
2415 Anton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1891	$2,200	$1.16	18d	1	1.21mi
2302 Tombstone Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1905	$2,100	$1.10	45d	1	1.46mi
907 Alpine St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,810	$1.39	45d	1	1.47mi
604 Carl C Senter St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$2,300	$1.75	3d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-18
   historical Active Option Contract 1015-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1015 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully three bedroom, two bathroom home in the sought-after city of Forney. With over 1,500 square feet of stylish, open-concept living space, this home blends modern design with comfortable living. The spacious interior features sleek granite countertops in the kitchen, perfect for both everyday cooking and entertaining. The seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas creates an inviting atmosphere with plenty of natural light. Retreat to the generously-sized master suite, complete with a private en-suite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a home office, guest room, or family space. Both bathrooms have been thoughtfully designed with contemporary finishes, including granite and elegant fixtures. ALSO the entire interior of the home has been given a new paint job including the baseboards and doors. Whether you’re unwinding in your backyard or taking a stroll through the park, this home offers the perfect balance of privacy and community.

2. 2026-03-27
   price $244,900 1015-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1015 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully three bedroom, two bathroom home in the sought-after city of Forney. With over 1,500 square feet of stylish, open-concept living space, this home blends modern design with comfortable living. The spacious interior features sleek granite countertops in the kitchen, perfect for both everyday cooking and entertaining. The seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas creates an inviting atmosphere with plenty of natural light. Retreat to the generously-sized master suite, complete with a private en-suite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a home office, guest room, or family space. Both bathrooms have been thoughtfully designed with contemporary finishes, including granite and elegant fixtures. ALSO the entire interior of the home has been given a new paint job including the baseboards and doors. Whether you’re unwinding in your backyard or taking a stroll through the park, this home offers the perfect balance of privacy and community.

3. 2026-03-16
   price $249,900 1015-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1015 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully three bedroom, two bathroom home in the sought-after city of Forney. With over 1,500 square feet of stylish, open-concept living space, this home blends modern design with comfortable living. The spacious interior features sleek granite countertops in the kitchen, perfect for both everyday cooking and entertaining. The seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas creates an inviting atmosphere with plenty of natural light. Retreat to the generously-sized master suite, complete with a private en-suite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a home office, guest room, or family space. Both bathrooms have been thoughtfully designed with contemporary finishes, including granite and elegant fixtures. ALSO the entire interior of the home has been given a new paint job including the baseboards and doors. Whether you’re unwinding in your backyard or taking a stroll through the park, this home offers the perfect balance of privacy and community.

4. 2026-02-24
   listed $259,900 Active 1015-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1015 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully three bedroom, two bathroom home in the sought-after city of Forney. With over 1,500 square feet of stylish, open-concept living space, this home blends modern design with comfortable living. The spacious interior features sleek granite countertops in the kitchen, perfect for both everyday cooking and entertaining. The seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas creates an inviting atmosphere with plenty of natural light. Retreat to the generously-sized master suite, complete with a private en-suite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a home office, guest room, or family space. Both bathrooms have been thoughtfully designed with contemporary finishes, including granite and elegant fixtures. ALSO the entire interior of the home has been given a new paint job including the baseboards and doors. Whether you’re unwinding in your backyard or taking a stroll through the park, this home offers the perfect balance of privacy and community.

5. 2023-12-20
   historical
6. 2023-11-06
   price $285,000
7. 2023-10-21
   listed $295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,509 · $626/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,509 · $626/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$7,509
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,989
• − Management: −$1,989
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$9,116
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,188
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, modern single-family home in Forney, TX, offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs and updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Both Replace blinds with modern shades — Improves natural light and aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace blinds with modern shades — Improves natural light and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $244,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $249,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $259,900 NTREIS
• 2023-12-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-11-06 Price Changed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2023-10-21 Listed $295,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+68.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,509 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.