12465 Orchid Ln · Walker, LA 70785

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,557 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 7,405 sqft lot $122/sqft · 24% below area Est $248k · 24% under $28/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Precious 3-bedroom home located in the Walker area in the Foxglove subdivision. Large, open den with lots of natural light. Enjoy the large rear yard and a single, enclosed garage. Measurement not warranted.

Key facts

• Foxglove subdivision
• Large open den
• Large rear yard

Tags

• FOXGLOVE SUBDIVISION
• LARGE OPEN DEN
• LARGE REAR YARD
• SINGLE ENCLOSED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (27.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.8% in Walker — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#19 in LA, #3,999 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,443 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.05%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,456
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -23.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33383 Hyacinth St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (-4%)	10mo	$215,000	$144	70
12308 Creekside Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,358 (-13%)	1mo	$228,000	$168	64
12250 Cottage Hill Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-12%)	12mo	$240,000	$174	53
12231 Greenbriar Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,358 (-13%)	5mo	$225,000	$166	52
12722 Darby Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,390 (-11%)	5mo	$215,000	$155	50
13155 Hanks Way	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,601 (+3%)	13mo	$224,000	$140	50
12236 Creekside Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-11%)	20mo	$215,000	$155	49
33667 Fairhaven Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-11%)	21mo	$212,000	$153	48
12257 Cottage Hill Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-13%)	15mo	$185,000	$137	47
12741 Darby Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-14%)	14mo	$223,000	$166	40
33245 Cross Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-10%)	22mo	$223,000	$160	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-49,040
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-65,438
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70785

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,821 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,405/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,190

Max offer price $138,443

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-184	-5% $-238	+0% $-291	+5% $-345	+10% $-399
Rent	-10% $-435	-5% $-363	+0% $-291	+5% $-219	+10% $-147
Rate	-1.0pp $-196	-0.5pp $-243	base $-291	+0.5pp $-340	+1.0pp $-391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12567 Orchid Ln Walker, LA	4.0	2.0	1496	$1,750	$1.17	20d	1	0.13mi
12567 Orchid Ln Walker, LA	4.0	2.0	1496	$1,750	$1.17	16d	1	0.13mi
12268 Cottage Hill Dr Walker, LA	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,850	$1.35	20d	1	0.38mi
30794 Tanner Ln Walker, LA	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,550	$1.31	25d	1	0.91mi
13340 Isabella Blvd Walker, LA	4.0	2.0	1668	$2,000	$1.20	46d	1	0.97mi
30962 Clearview Ct Denham Springs, LA	4.0	2.0	1704	$1,945	$1.14	20d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 207-char remark

   Show marketing remark (207 chars)

   Precious 3-bedroom home located in the Walker area in the Foxglove subdivision. Large, open den with lots of natural light. Enjoy the large rear yard and a single, enclosed garage. Measurement not warranted.

2. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 207-char remark

   Show marketing remark (207 chars)

   Precious 3-bedroom home located in the Walker area in the Foxglove subdivision. Large, open den with lots of natural light. Enjoy the large rear yard and a single, enclosed garage. Measurement not warranted.

3. 2026-04-14
   listed $189,900 Active 207-char remark

   Show marketing remark (207 chars)

   Precious 3-bedroom home located in the Walker area in the Foxglove subdivision. Large, open den with lots of natural light. Enjoy the large rear yard and a single, enclosed garage. Measurement not warranted.

4. 2026-04-14
   listed $189,900 Active 207-char remark

   Show marketing remark (207 chars)

   Precious 3-bedroom home located in the Walker area in the Foxglove subdivision. Large, open den with lots of natural light. Enjoy the large rear yard and a single, enclosed garage. Measurement not warranted.

5. 2025-12-02
   listed $225,000 Active
6. 2025-12-02
   listed $225,000 Active
7. 2021-11-18
   soldstatus Sold
8. 2021-10-22
   status Pending
9. 2021-06-19
   price $228,225
10. 2021-06-07
    listed $216,225 Active
11. 2021-06-07
    listed $228,225

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,405 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,405 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,405
• − Insurance: −$6,068
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,748
• − Management: −$1,748
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$6,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,587
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Walker, LA, offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition for tenants

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition for tenants ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Walker

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #3999

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston Parish · 87,496 people
• City population: 23,921
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 23,921
• Household income: $89,103
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 343.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.92%
• Current HPI: 164.6373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $189,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $189,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $225,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $225,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2021-11-18 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2021-10-22 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2021-06-19 Price Changed $228,225 GBRMLS
• 2021-06-07 Listed $228,225 AcadianaMLS
• 2021-06-07 Listed $216,225 GBRMLS

Property tax history

+1205.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,405 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.