1006 Orlo · Warren, OH 44485

$159,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1963 0.40 ac lot Est $161k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming all brick Cape Cod on a double lot features 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 2 fireplaces spacious eat-in kitchen & oversized all brick 2.5 garage. New boiler system in 2021. All appointments require 24 hr. notice.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1963

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Detached garage with 2-car capacity
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Brick and stone construction; Asphalt fiberglass roof
• Construction: Brick and stone exterior; Asphalt/Fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: 0.4-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; Additional bedrooms on second floor
• Flooring: Carpet in some bedrooms and living room; Wood flooring on second-floor rooms; Linoleum in the eat-in kitchen
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Gas heating; Fireplaces provide additional heat
• Interior features: Full basement; Two fireplaces (located in living room and basement)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-590/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#312 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, commute F, employment F.
• Warren City (urban): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #599 of 656 in OH (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($34k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $160k implies a 540% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $121,305 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.32%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,590
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1325 Moncrest Dr NW	0.30mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,478 (-7%)	6mo	$162,000	$110	62
1905 Monticello Ave NW	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-2%)	1mo	$157,000	$101	61
1581 Drexel Ave NW	0.46mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,506 (-5%)	0mo	$180,000	$120	58
1587 Drexel Ave NW	0.46mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,508 (-5%)	1mo	$170,000	$113	58
1595 Drexel Ave NW	0.44mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,506 (-5%)	2mo	$180,000	$120	58
1575 Drexel Ave NW	0.46mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,506 (-5%)	3mo	$170,000	$113	57
442 Belmont Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,462 (-8%)	2mo	$55,000	$38	54
439 School St NW	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,504 (-5%)	15mo	$93,000	$62	43
783 Packard St NW	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,356 (-15%)	6mo	$115,000	$85	34
929 Comstock St NW	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-12%)	12mo	$121,800	$87	30
724 Packard St NW	0.69mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,359 (-14%)	13mo	$82,000	$60	26
2212 Mahoning Ave NW	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,353 (-15%)	15mo	$44,000	$33	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-16,217
• Equity at exit: $37,532

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,328
• Equity at exit: $38,510

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44485

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,213 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,228/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,275

Max offer price $151,208

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1388 Beechcrest St NW Warren, OH	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,195	$0.92	13d	1	0.52mi
407 Washington St NE Niles, OH	3.0	1.5	1388	$1,250	$0.90	13d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 218-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $159,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,861 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$633/yr (+$53/mo · 51.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,228
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,165
• − Management: −$1,165
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$3,409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$818
• After-tax cash flow: $228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren City
• NCES district ID: 3904499
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $28,222
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8299
• State rank: #599 of 656 in OH

Livability — Warren

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #312
• US rank: #5068

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, OH
• County: Trumbull · 193,293 people
• City population: 25,805
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 15,194
• Household income: $33,720
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 14.2

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 38% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.14%
• Current HPI: 212.5324
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+539.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $159,900 MLSNOW
• 2015-05-15 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2015-03-04 Listed $49,900 MLSNOW
• 2013-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,228 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.