1407 Middle Rd #253 · Calverton, NY 11933

$449,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,753 sqft · Manufactured · 30 Days on market

Built 2005 $256/sqft · 50% above area Est $300k · 50% over $839/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Home in Foxwood Village, a gated 55+ community, ready for you to move in. Community is close to shopping, beaches, vineyards and all the North Fork has to offer. Home features an expansive Living room with gas fireplace and formal dining area; EIK with sliders to enclosed deck; Primary BR with En-suite and WIC; 2 guests BRs; guest bath; laundry; full basement; lovely front porch; shed and 1 car attached garage. Home has Natural gas heat and CAC. Trane A/C is high efficiency with a 19 SEER rating with electronic air cleaner & humidifier. Hot water heater & Furnace also high efficiency. Monthly maintenance fee is $594 and covers clubhouse, pool, gym, game room, land lease, water, septic and trash removal., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Min Age:55,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

Key facts

• Gated community
• Large bay windows
• Laundry room

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• GAS FIREPLACE
• LARGE BAY WINDOWS
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a senior community
• HOA & community: Association: Hometown American; Monthly association fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, gated community maintenance, pool; Association fee covers common area maintenance, pool service, sewer, trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; Garage with door opener; 1 garage space; No carport
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Electricity connected (NYSEG); Natural gas connected; Public sewer; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-family home; Single-story (manufactured house); Actual property condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Back and front yard; Sprinklers in front and rear; Shed(s); No fencing; Private community outdoor pool (electric heat); Community pool available

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Gas fireplace in living room
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom and full bath; Ceiling fans; Chandelier; Eat-in kitchen; Primary bathroom with soaking tub; Storage; Washer/dryer hookup; Storm door(s); Covered porch, deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in hall/inside; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $449k).
• Recommended offer: $442k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 7.2% in Calverton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,053 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime C-, schools D, employment D.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($442k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $442,265 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.24%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,981
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: 49.68%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1407 Middle Rd #22	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-3%)	8mo	$389,999	$229	76
1407 Middle Rd #258	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-11%)	4mo	$525,000	$335	71
1800 Osborn Ave Unit 27E	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-14%)	4mo	$210,000	$140	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $215,969
• Equity at exit: $208,485

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.33×
• Total profit: $544,802
• Equity at exit: $326,524

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,014 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$516 /mo · $6,187/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$839
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,683
• Net cashflow: $2,435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,932

Max offer price $449,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Mastro Ct Calverton, NY	3.0	2.5	1822	$7,500	$4.12	1d	1	0.70mi
19 Kroemer Ave Riverhead, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$9,000	$4.50	1d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $839 · $10,068/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashgaspoolgymsecurity

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $449,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $449,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $449,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $449,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $449,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-05-05
   listed $449,000 Active 1364-char remark
7. 2023-09-20
   soldstatus $395,000 Closed 839-char remark

   Show marketing remark (839 chars)

   Beautiful Home in Foxwood Village, a gated 55+ community, ready for you to move in. Community is close to shopping, beaches, vineyards and all the North Fork has to offer. Home features an expansive Living room with gas fireplace and formal dining area; EIK with sliders to enclosed deck; Primary BR with En-suite and WIC; 2 guests BRs; guest bath; laundry; full basement; lovely front porch; shed and 1 car attached garage. Home has Natural gas heat and CAC. Trane A/C is high efficiency with a 19 SEER rating with electronic air cleaner & humidifier. Hot water heater & Furnace also high efficiency. Monthly maintenance fee is $594 and covers clubhouse, pool, gym, game room, land lease, water, septic and trash removal., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Min Age:55,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

8. 2023-08-21
   status Pending 839-char remark

   Show marketing remark (839 chars)

   Beautiful Home in Foxwood Village, a gated 55+ community, ready for you to move in. Community is close to shopping, beaches, vineyards and all the North Fork has to offer. Home features an expansive Living room with gas fireplace and formal dining area; EIK with sliders to enclosed deck; Primary BR with En-suite and WIC; 2 guests BRs; guest bath; laundry; full basement; lovely front porch; shed and 1 car attached garage. Home has Natural gas heat and CAC. Trane A/C is high efficiency with a 19 SEER rating with electronic air cleaner & humidifier. Hot water heater & Furnace also high efficiency. Monthly maintenance fee is $594 and covers clubhouse, pool, gym, game room, land lease, water, septic and trash removal., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Min Age:55,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

9. 2023-07-20
   listed $415,000 Active 839-char remark

   Show marketing remark (839 chars)

   Beautiful Home in Foxwood Village, a gated 55+ community, ready for you to move in. Community is close to shopping, beaches, vineyards and all the North Fork has to offer. Home features an expansive Living room with gas fireplace and formal dining area; EIK with sliders to enclosed deck; Primary BR with En-suite and WIC; 2 guests BRs; guest bath; laundry; full basement; lovely front porch; shed and 1 car attached garage. Home has Natural gas heat and CAC. Trane A/C is high efficiency with a 19 SEER rating with electronic air cleaner & humidifier. Hot water heater & Furnace also high efficiency. Monthly maintenance fee is $594 and covers clubhouse, pool, gym, game room, land lease, water, septic and trash removal., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Min Age:55,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,187 · $516/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,887 · $574/mo
• Expected delta: +$701/yr (+$58/mo · 11.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $96,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$6,187
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,693
• − Management: −$7,693
• − HOA: −$10,068
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable income: $24,068
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,776
• After-tax cash flow: $23,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Calverton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #20908

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C- Employment D Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calverton, NY
• City population: 6,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+8.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-20 Sold (MLS) $395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-21 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-20 Listed $415,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid