5527 W 153rd Ave · Lake Dalecarlia, IN 46356

$114,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 183 Days on market

Built 1954 0.46 ac lot ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Investment Opportunity. This 3 Bedroom Ranch with an Attached 2 Car Garage and situated on a . 5 Acre Lot is located in the Lake Dalecarlia area. Recent Updates Include Roof, Electric, Furnace, and Central Air.

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Attached garage
• Acre lot

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• LAKE DALECARLIA
• RECENT UPDATES
• ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#161 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-Creek School Corporation (town): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #39 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $101,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.98%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,960
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15315 Clinton Pl	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	20mo	$210,000	$175	63
5104 Burr Oak Ter	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-10%)	14mo	$260,000	$258	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-10,135
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,044
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46356

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,021/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $931

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $166	+0% $134	+5% $101	+10% $68
Rent	-10% $47	-5% $90	+0% $134	+5% $177	+10% $220
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $163	base $134	+0.5pp $104	+1.0pp $73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14424 Morse St Cedar Lake, IN	1.0	1.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $114,900
3. 2026-01-06
   price $129,900
4. 2025-10-22
   listed $139,900 Active
5. 2025-10-13
   historical
6. 2025-09-03
   price $185,000
7. 2025-08-25
   listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,021 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,021 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,021
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,056
• − Management: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$286
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$69
• After-tax cash flow: $1,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Creek School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1811460
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,614
• Composite: 44.97/100
• National rank: #2704
• State rank: #39 of 301 in IN

Livability — Lake Dalecarlia

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #7821

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Dalecarlia, IN
• Population (ZIP): 19,396

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Iranian 10% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.73%
• Current HPI: 256.6224
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-39.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $114,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $129,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Listed $139,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $185,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-25 Listed $190,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+17.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,021 · +16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.