63 Rock Creek Dr · Leitchfield, KY 42754

$119,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Other · 55 Days on market

Built 1980 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bed, 2 bath, brick ranch home on corner lot, large kitchen w/ formal dining room, covered front porch, deck and 1 car attached garage. Some newer vinyl replacement windows. Needs some updating and TLC. Minutes from Nolin Lake. Buyer to verify all property information. Insured Escrow (IE) $2,200. HUD owned and being sold "AS-IS/WHERE-IS". Equal Housing Opportunity. Agents see additional remarks for bid information.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.3% in Leitchfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#144 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grayson County (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #84 of 165 in KY (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 180 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.61%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $6,553
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $38,949
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42754

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,169/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $976

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2024-03-13
   soldstatus $119,000
2. 2024-02-02
   status Pending
3. 2023-12-08
   listed $119,000 Active
4. 2023-08-08
   soldstatus $55,000
5. 2015-03-10
   soldstatus $30,500 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   3 bed, 2 bath, brick ranch home on corner lot, large kitchen w/ formal dining room, covered front porch, deck and 1 car attached garage. Some newer vinyl replacement windows. Needs some updating and TLC. Minutes from Nolin Lake. Buyer to verify all property information. Insured Escrow (IE) $2,200. HUD owned and being sold "AS-IS/WHERE-IS". Equal Housing Opportunity. Agents see additional remarks for bid information.

6. 2014-12-30
   listed $35,000 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   3 bed, 2 bath, brick ranch home on corner lot, large kitchen w/ formal dining room, covered front porch, deck and 1 car attached garage. Some newer vinyl replacement windows. Needs some updating and TLC. Minutes from Nolin Lake. Buyer to verify all property information. Insured Escrow (IE) $2,200. HUD owned and being sold "AS-IS/WHERE-IS". Equal Housing Opportunity. Agents see additional remarks for bid information.

7. 2011-07-01
   soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,169 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,169 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,169
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $3,124
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$750
• After-tax cash flow: $4,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grayson County
• NCES district ID: 2102300
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $34,256
• Composite: 27.55/100
• National rank: #6944
• State rank: #84 of 165 in KY

Livability — Leitchfield

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #6810

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,817
• Population (ZIP): 15,817

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,840 people
• By 2030: 27,032 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 27,236 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 27,076 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 26,565 · -1.0%
• By 2100: 24,007 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.5% · R 80.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.9pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+34.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.82%
• Current HPI: 283.0264
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+164.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-02 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2023-12-08 Listed $119,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2023-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-10 Sold (MLS) $30,500 HKARMLS
• 2014-12-30 Listed $35,000 HKARMLS
• 2011-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,169 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.