17801 Lionheart Rd · Deerwood, TX 77306

$268,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,882 sqft · Land · 39 Days on market

Built 2026 6,500 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Meet the Gannet! This two-story plan boasts an open-concept layout on the main floor, with an airy great room overlooking a dining area and a kitchen. Rounding out the main floor is the spacious primary suite, featuring a walk-in closet and a luxurious private bath with a walk-in shower. The upper floor features two additional roomy bedrooms and a shared bath, with the option of another bedroom or inviting loft. The Gannet is filled with natural light, elegant finishes, and thoughtful details throughout.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Private bath
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sherwood Glen POA with an annual fee of $600; Curbs in community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built by Century Communities; 2026 construction; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Subdivision setting; Concrete road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13'‑8" x 12'‑2"); Three additional bedrooms on second floor (approx. 12'‑9.5" x 10', 10'‑0.5" x 11', 10'‑3" x 10'‑7")
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pantry; Separate shower and tub/shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $268,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $243,715.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $201,276 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.54%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,715
• List price: $268,900
• Delta: 10.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-48,614
• Equity at exit: $36,339

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-53,909
• Equity at exit: $21,072

Cash invested: $68,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,013 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,278
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$305 /mo · $3,656/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,195

Max offer price $222,852

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-60	+0% $-144	+5% $-228	+10% $-313
Rent	-10% $-303	-5% $-224	+0% $-144	+5% $-65	+10% $15
Rate	-1.0pp $-21	-0.5pp $-82	base $-144	+0.5pp $-207	+1.0pp $-272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,929
• Closing costs: $7,311
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2221 Cedar Valley Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,695	$0.88	44d	1	0.37mi
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	11d	1	0.39mi
308 Kinsman Rd Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,650	$1.18	8d	1	1.20mi
308 Kinsman Rd Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,650	$1.18	44d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $268,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $268,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $268,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $268,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $268,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $268,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $268,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $268,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $268,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $268,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $268,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $268,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $268,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $268,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $268,900 Active 891-char remark
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $268,900 Active 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Meet the Gannet! This two-story plan boasts an open-concept layout on the main floor, with an airy great room overlooking a dining area and a kitchen. Rounding out the main floor is the spacious primary suite, featuring a walk-in closet and a luxurious private bath with a walk-in shower. The upper floor features two additional roomy bedrooms and a shared bath, with the option of another bedroom or inviting loft. The Gannet is filled with natural light, elegant finishes, and thoughtful details throughout.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,652
• − Property taxes: −$3,656
• − Insurance: −$1,219
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,090
• Taxable loss: −$5,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,423
• After-tax cash flow: $-308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $268,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $268,900 Zillow

Property tax history

-30.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $470 · -30.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.