114 Lecours Dr · Old Forge, NY 13420

$179,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured · 51 Days on market

Built 2005 $157/sqft · 33% above area Est $135k · 33% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

RARE OPPORTUNITY IN OLD FORGE – 3 Bedroom, 2 bath home located in a popular park close to restaurants, lakes, beach, and snowmobile trails. Sunken living room features a wood burning fireplace. Great primary or vacation home. Shed fits two snowmobiles. Appliances, basic furniture, and generator included. Reasonable lot rent and no property or school taxes. $184,900.

Key facts

• Built 2005
• Listed 51 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-504 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (40.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (39.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (40.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#804 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, employment D+.
• Town Of Webb Union Free School District (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #404 of 755 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,568 (40.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.04%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,000
• List price: $179,500
• Delta: 32.96%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-19,613
• Equity at exit: $70,893

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-12,715
• Equity at exit: $102,159

Cash invested: $50,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13420

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,091 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$941
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,692/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $-504

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,729

Max offer price $106,568

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,875
• Closing costs: $5,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $179,500 Pending 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,500 Active Under Contract 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $179,500 Active Under Contract 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $179,500 Active Under Contract 48 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,500 Active Under Contract 47 DOM
6. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   RARE OPPORTUNITY IN OLD FORGE – 3 Bedroom, 2 bath home located in a popular park close to restaurants, lakes, beach, and snowmobile trails. Sunken living room features a wood burning fireplace. Great primary or vacation home. Shed fits two snowmobiles. Appliances, basic furniture, and generator included. Reasonable lot rent and no property or school taxes. $184,900.

7. 2026-04-29
   price $179,500 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   RARE OPPORTUNITY IN OLD FORGE – 3 Bedroom, 2 bath home located in a popular park close to restaurants, lakes, beach, and snowmobile trails. Sunken living room features a wood burning fireplace. Great primary or vacation home. Shed fits two snowmobiles. Appliances, basic furniture, and generator included. Reasonable lot rent and no property or school taxes. $184,900.

8. 2026-04-13
   listed $184,900 Active 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   RARE OPPORTUNITY IN OLD FORGE – 3 Bedroom, 2 bath home located in a popular park close to restaurants, lakes, beach, and snowmobile trails. Sunken living room features a wood burning fireplace. Great primary or vacation home. Shed fits two snowmobiles. Appliances, basic furniture, and generator included. Reasonable lot rent and no property or school taxes. $184,900.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,055
• − Property taxes: −$2,692
• − Insurance: −$2,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,047
• − Management: −$1,047
• − Depreciation: −$5,222
• Taxable loss: −$9,375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,250
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Town Of Webb Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3628800
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $52,522
• Composite: 47.01/100
• National rank: #5138
• State rank: #404 of 755 in NY

Livability — Old Forge

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #804
• US rank: #15562

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Old Forge, NY
• Population (ZIP): 890

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Slovak 3%
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.01%
• Current HPI: 412.483
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $179,500 CNYIS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $184,900 CNYIS