466 Cherry Cir · Baldwin, GA 30531

$254,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 2026 1.00 ac lot ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to easy, modern living with room to breathe! This brand-new 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home sits perfectly on a full 1-acre lot, offering the ideal blend of comfort, space, and privacy. Step inside to a thoughtfully designed split floor plan that provides separation between the primary suite and secondary bedrooms-perfect for both relaxation and functionality. The open-concept layout features a bright and inviting living room, plus an additional den that can serve as a home office, playroom, or second lounge space. The spacious kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living areas, making everyday living and entertaining effortless. Retreat to the primary suite, complete with

Key facts

• Large deck
• Private bath
• Split floor plan

Tags

• FULL 1 ACRE LOT
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE DECK
• PRIVATE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 1 acre lot
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Side/rear entrance
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Underground utilities
• Home design: New construction; Residential single-family manufactured home; Manufactured house; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Block foundation; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Split bedroom plan; Walk-in closet(s); Dining room / living room combo; Family room; Office; Other rooms; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in hall

🏗️ New construction. The $254,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $327,363.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-786 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.7% in Baldwin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#235 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Habersham County (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #53 of 174 in GA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Level Grove Elementary School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #485 of 1,228 statewide, top 41%, 593 students, 61% FRL); South Habersham Middle School (math 35% / reading 41%, grade F, #159 of 470 statewide, top 34%, 459 students, 66% FRL); Habersham Central High School (math 8% / reading 38%, grade F, #209 of 424 statewide, top 49%, 1,525 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in Habersham County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Habersham County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $186,933 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.28%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,363
• List price: $254,900
• Delta: -22.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
237 Danny Smart Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-4%)	20mo	$325,000	$216	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-103,051
• Equity at exit: $48,811

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.68×
• Total profit: $-154,046
• Equity at exit: $28,304

Cash invested: $91,662 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30531

• Home prices YoY: -4.9%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,717
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$409 /mo · $4,910/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-786

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,864

Max offer price $213,691

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,841
• Closing costs: $9,821
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-17
   price $254,900 1116-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $259,900 New 1116-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,337
• − Property taxes: −$4,910
• − Insurance: −$1,637
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − Depreciation: −$9,523
• Taxable loss: −$15,565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,736
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Habersham County
• NCES district ID: 1302580
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $41,838
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5709
• State rank: #53 of 174 in GA

Livability — Baldwin

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #13463

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,044

Population outlook (Habersham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,697 people
• By 2030: 46,571 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 48,157 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 49,492 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 52,546 · +15.0%
• By 2100: 52,752 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 12% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Habersham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.9) · D 17.3% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -59.9pp · 2024: -64.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.9 2020: R+64.0 2016: R+66.3 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+59.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.30%
• Current HPI: 256.1205
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $254,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $259,900 GAMLS