26000 Avenida Aeropuerto #2 · San Juan Capistrano, CA 92675

$330,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 55 Days on market

Built 1970 $229/sqft · 30% below area Est $473k · 30% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience this senior-friendly community and enjoy those cool ocean breezes. This well-loved home is situated across from guest parking and is steps away from the greenbelt area, and also within walking distance to the clubhouse, which hosts many events. The home is laid out well, but could use some updating. Nice yard space and deck space. There is a living room, dining area off the kitchen, and the family room flows from the kitchen with built in cabinet for storage space. The 2 generously sized bedrooms are in the rear of the home, with large walk-in closets. Enjoy the covered deck and create your own paradise in this highly desirable 55+ community. Location is key. Enjoy effortless access to the freeway and various transportation options, making your adventures to the scenic Sands of Doheny Beach and the vibrant Dana Point Harbor a delightful possibility. Here, you can explore a rich tapestry of shopping, dining, and recreation. Don’t forget the historic Mission of San Juan Capistrano! Call for your private viewing of this opportunity!

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $330k).
• Recommended offer: $320k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 2.3% in San Juan Capistrano — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#114 in CA, #4,023 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Capistrano Unified (suburban): math 50% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #64 of 517 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Del Obispo Elementary (319 students, 65% FRL); Marco Forster Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 1,082 students, 70% FRL); San Juan Hills High (math 50% / reading 75%, grade B-, #187 of 1,170 statewide, top 16%, 2,857 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 19% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 61% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Capistrano Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $92k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $320,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.71%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $472,658
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: -30.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26000 Avenida Aeropuerto #164	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$360,000	$250	97
26000 Avenida Aeropuerto #38	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	6mo	$439,000	$321	86
26000 Avenida Aeropuerto #56	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,472 (+2%)	12mo	$325,000	$221	86
26000 Avenida Aeropuerto #214	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	17mo	$325,000	$226	86
26000 Avenida Aeropuerto #148	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	7mo	$255,000	$186	86
26000 Avenida Aeropuerto #188	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,580 (+10%)	4mo	$325,000	$206	80
26000 Avenida Aeropuerto #20	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	17mo	$435,000	$288	77
26000 Avenida Aeropuerto #55	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+15%)	7mo	$500,000	$303	65
32742 Alipaz #165	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$515,000	$383	57
33831 Camino Capistrano #20	0.52mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,550 (+8%)	9mo	$480,000	$310	50
32742 Alipaz St #94	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	9mo	$650,000	$484	47
32742 Alipaz St #73	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	17mo	$716,000	$533	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $60,967
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $283,792
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92675

• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,808 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$412 /mo · $4,950/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,010
• Net cashflow: $1,396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,042

Max offer price $330,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,624	-5% $1,510	+0% $1,396	+5% $1,282	+10% $1,168
Rent	-10% $1,016	-5% $1,206	+0% $1,396	+5% $1,585	+10% $1,775
Rate	-1.0pp $1,562	-0.5pp $1,479	base $1,396	+0.5pp $1,310	+1.0pp $1,223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33032 Driftwood Ct San Juan Capistrano, CA	3.0	2.0	1494	$5,199	$3.48	16d	1	0.40mi
32951 Avenida del Rosal San Juan Capistrano, CA	3.0	1.5	1210	$5,200	$4.30	45d	1	0.41mi
33655 Breakwater Dr Dana Point, CA	3.0	3.0	1711	$4,850	$2.83	45d	1	0.53mi
25251 Barque Way Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.0	1715	$6,000	$3.50	45d	1	0.72mi
33852 Del Obispo St Dana Point, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	781	$3,495	$4.47	16d	1	0.75mi
26451 Camino De Vis San Juan Capistrano, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$3,830	$4.54	1d	6	0.89mi
34101 Via California #39 San Juan Capistrano, CA	3.0	2.5	1642	$4,500	$2.74	3d	1	1.01mi
985 Doheny Way Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.5	1506	$5,100	$3.39	45d	1	1.09mi
985 Doheny Way Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.5	1506	$5,395	$3.58	9d	1	1.09mi
765 Doheny Way Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1497	$4,995	$3.34	45d	1	1.10mi
34155 Camino El Molino Capistrano Beach, CA	3.0	2.5	1825	$5,950	$3.26	45d	1	1.11mi
34155 Camino El Molino Capistrano Beach, CA	3.0	2.5	1825	$5,800	$3.18	19d	1	1.11mi
876 Doheny Way Dana Point, CA	1.0	1.0	934	$4,400	$4.71	14d	1	1.11mi
34031 Mazo Dr Dana Point, CA	3.0	3.0	1811	$15,000	$8.28	0d	1	1.12mi
769 Doheny Way Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.5	1506	$8,000	$5.31	9d	1	1.13mi
769 Doheny Way Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.5	1506	$5,200	$3.45	45d	1	1.13mi
33852 Copper Lantern St Unit E Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,400	$3.09	22d	1	1.18mi
25872 Vista Dr W Capistrano Beach, CA	3.0	2.5	1699	$7,200	$4.24	45d	1	1.18mi
26305 Via California Capistrano Beach, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$4,475	$2.98	9d	1	1.19mi
25091 La Cresta Dr Dana Point, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,295	$3.29	45d	1	1.19mi
33212 Ocean Bright Dana Point, CA	2.0	3.0	1334	$4,400	$3.30	5d	1	1.20mi
33871 Copper Lantern St Unit B Dana Point, CA	1.0	1.0	903	$4,000	$4.43	16d	1	1.22mi
33871 Copper Lantern St Unit A Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$5,500	$5.00	16d	1	1.22mi
33901 Copper Lantern St Dana Point, CA	2.0	1.5	1100	$4,700	$4.27	45d	1	1.24mi
34375 Via San Juan Unit A Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.5	1750	$3,300	$1.89	19d	1	1.25mi
33431 Nottingham Way Unit A Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,750	$3.39	9d	1	1.25mi
34421 Via Espinoza Unit A Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,800	$3.45	16d	1	1.26mi
33742 Silver Lantern St Dana Point, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$2,795	$2.91	45d	1	1.27mi
24802 Sea Crest Dr Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.5	1748	$5,200	$2.97	6d	1	1.27mi
33936 Alcazar Dr Dana Point, CA	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,450	$3.14	9d	1	1.27mi
32951 Danapine Dana Point, CA	3.0	2.5	1837	$7,800	$4.25	45d	1	1.28mi
34411 Via San Juan Unit B Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.5	1250	$4,000	$3.20	26d	1	1.29mi
34465 Via Espinoza Unit A Capistrano Beach, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,700	$2.64	45d	1	1.29mi
34516 Via Verde Capistrano Beach, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	22d	1	1.29mi
34516 Via Verde Capistrano Beach, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	45d	1	1.29mi
33816 Silver Lantern St Unit A Dana Point, CA	2.0	1.5	1350	$3,500	$2.59	16d	1	1.30mi
4023 Calle Mayo Unit A San Clemente, CA	2.0	2.0	1577	$6,990	$4.43	45d	1	1.31mi
32762 Pointe Sutton Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.5	1225	$3,841	$3.13	0d	5	1.31mi
26882 Calle Monterey Capistrano Beach, CA	3.0	2.0	1591	$6,400	$4.02	45d	1	1.32mi
34288 Camino El Molino Unit B Dana Point, CA	2.0	2.0	1264	$3,700	$2.93	45d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $330,000 Pending Sale 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $330,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $330,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $330,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    status Active 1066-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1066 chars)

    Experience this senior-friendly community and enjoy those cool ocean breezes. This well-loved home is situated across from guest parking and is steps away from the greenbelt area, and also within walking distance to the clubhouse, which hosts many events. The home is laid out well, but could use some updating. Nice yard space and deck space. There is a living room, dining area off the kitchen, and the family room flows from the kitchen with built in cabinet for storage space. The 2 generously sized bedrooms are in the rear of the home, with large walk-in closets. Enjoy the covered deck and create your own paradise in this highly desirable 55+ community. Location is key. Enjoy effortless access to the freeway and various transportation options, making your adventures to the scenic Sands of Doheny Beach and the vibrant Dana Point Harbor a delightful possibility. Here, you can explore a rich tapestry of shopping, dining, and recreation. Don’t forget the historic Mission of San Juan Capistrano! Call for your private viewing of this opportunity!

17. 2026-03-28
    listed $340,000 Active 1066-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1066 chars)

    Experience this senior-friendly community and enjoy those cool ocean breezes. This well-loved home is situated across from guest parking and is steps away from the greenbelt area, and also within walking distance to the clubhouse, which hosts many events. The home is laid out well, but could use some updating. Nice yard space and deck space. There is a living room, dining area off the kitchen, and the family room flows from the kitchen with built in cabinet for storage space. The 2 generously sized bedrooms are in the rear of the home, with large walk-in closets. Enjoy the covered deck and create your own paradise in this highly desirable 55+ community. Location is key. Enjoy effortless access to the freeway and various transportation options, making your adventures to the scenic Sands of Doheny Beach and the vibrant Dana Point Harbor a delightful possibility. Here, you can explore a rich tapestry of shopping, dining, and recreation. Don’t forget the historic Mission of San Juan Capistrano! Call for your private viewing of this opportunity!

18. 2026-03-08
    historical $340,000 1066-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1066 chars)

    Experience this senior-friendly community and enjoy those cool ocean breezes. This well-loved home is situated across from guest parking and is steps away from the greenbelt area, and also within walking distance to the clubhouse, which hosts many events. The home is laid out well, but could use some updating. Nice yard space and deck space. There is a living room, dining area off the kitchen, and the family room flows from the kitchen with built in cabinet for storage space. The 2 generously sized bedrooms are in the rear of the home, with large walk-in closets. Enjoy the covered deck and create your own paradise in this highly desirable 55+ community. Location is key. Enjoy effortless access to the freeway and various transportation options, making your adventures to the scenic Sands of Doheny Beach and the vibrant Dana Point Harbor a delightful possibility. Here, you can explore a rich tapestry of shopping, dining, and recreation. Don’t forget the historic Mission of San Juan Capistrano! Call for your private viewing of this opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AO · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥85°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$4,950
• − Insurance: −$3,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,616
• − Management: −$4,616
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable income: $12,313
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,955
• After-tax cash flow: $13,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Capistrano Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607440
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $99,673
• Composite: 56.56/100
• National rank: #1147
• State rank: #64 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Juan Capistrano

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #114
• US rank: #4023

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan Capistrano, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 35,095
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,095
• Household income: $129,457
• Rent vs Own: 19.0% rent · 81.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 648.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1003.11%
• Current HPI: 410.383
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.20%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $340,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-08 Coming Soon $340,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6 · -71.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.