199 Amherst St · East Orange, NJ 07018

$399,999

7 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,970 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1930 3,302 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property needs full gut renovation and is being sold in as is condition, Short sale subject to a third party approval. Buyer will be responsible for all certificates required to close.

Key facts

• 3,302 sq ft lot
• Listed 18 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas available and connected
• Home design: Residential income property; Multi-family

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: 14 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-940 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (41.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (41.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#189 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• East Orange School District (suburban): math 6% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #444 of 472 in NJ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 23 active listings in the ZIP; 3,364 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (2,551 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,906/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 2032% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Essex County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,871 (41.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.08%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-118,869
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-155,799
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07018

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,906 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$972 /mo · $11,664/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $-940

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,097

Max offer price $233,871

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,999 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,999 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,999 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $399,999 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $399,999 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $399,999 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $399,999 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $399,999 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-05-22
   status Under Contract 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   Property needs full gut renovation and is being sold in as is condition, Short sale subject to a third party approval. Buyer will be responsible for all certificates required to close.

10. 2026-05-22
    listed $399,999 Active 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Property needs full gut renovation and is being sold in as is condition, Short sale subject to a third party approval. Buyer will be responsible for all certificates required to close.

11. 2026-05-22
    listed $399,999 Active

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Property needs full gut renovation and is being sold in as is condition, Short sale subject to a third party approval. Buyer will be responsible for all certificates required to close.

12. 2025-10-01
    historical Active Under Contract
13. 2025-10-01
    price $299,999
14. 2025-09-30
    listed $399,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,664 · $972/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,664 · $972/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$11,664
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,790
• − Management: −$2,790
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$18,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,419
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Orange School District
• NCES district ID: 3404230
• Math proficiency: 6% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,490
• Composite: 15.56/100
• National rank: #9295
• State rank: #444 of 472 in NJ

Livability — East Orange

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #189
• US rank: #5261

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime D- Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Orange, NJ
• County: Essex County · 825,405 people
• City population: 69,834
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,924
• Household income: $62,564
• Rent vs Own: 72.2% rent · 27.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2032.0

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 825,042 people
• By 2030: 834,010 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 846,221 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 850,047 · +3.0%
• By 2075: 837,009 · +1.5%
• By 2100: 784,345 · -4.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 83% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, United Kingdom, Mexico
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Spanish 4% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.7% · R 26.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: 52.6pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+55.4 2016: D+56.4 2012: D+55.5 2008: D+52.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.24%
• Current HPI: 290.9606
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.85%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — GSMLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $399,999 NJMLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $399,999 GSMLS
• 2025-10-01 Contingent — NJMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $299,999 NJMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $399,999 NJMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,664 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.