1127 Robin Rd · Elgin, TX 78621

$339,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,053 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 367 Days on market

Built 1999 0.28 ac lot $165/sqft · 15% below area Est $399k · 15% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into the heart of Elgin and discover this beautifully maintained single-story gem in the sought-after Parkdale neighborhood. Nestled on a spacious 0.28-acre lot, this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers approximately 2,053 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space—perfect for growing families or anyone craving peace and privacy without sacrificing location. Inside, you'll find a bright and airy layout highlighted by vaulted ceilings in the great room, creating a warm, open feel ideal for entertaining or relaxing. The generous bedrooms, including a comfortable primary suite, offer ample room to unwind. Just minutes from historic downtown Elgin, with easy access to local dining, schools, and major highways, this home truly delivers the best of both worlds—tranquil suburban living with unbeatable convenience. Whether you're putting down roots or seeking a serene retreat, 1127 Robin Road is ready to welcome you home.

Key facts

• Vaulted ceiling
• Great room
• Private setting

Tags

• PARKDALE NEIGHBORHOOD
• VAULTED CEILING
• GREAT ROOM
• PRIVATE SETTING
• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (42.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (39.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (42.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 367 days — a 12% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,694 (42.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 367 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.83%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,344
• List price: $339,000
• Delta: -15.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Taylor Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,929 (-6%)	1mo	$349,900	$181	74
512 N Highway 95 Hwy N	0.18mi	3/2.0	2,206 (+8%)	17mo	$169,900	$77	65
1117 Robin Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,881 (-8%)	23mo	$325,000	$173	64
1129 N Avenue C	0.33mi	3/2.0	2,195 (+7%)	20mo	$375,000	$171	56
214 N Avenue C	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,997 (-3%)	11mo	$365,000	$183	55
216 Loesch Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,755 (-14%)	9mo	$274,995	$157	51
1241 Lake Terrace Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,980 (-4%)	11mo	$445,000	$225	49
120 Hilltop Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,209 (+8%)	8mo	$335,000	$152	48
210 Taylor Rd	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,770 (-14%)	19mo	$275,000	$155	44
122 Anderson Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,877 (-9%)	21mo	$310,000	$165	39
200 N Avenue B	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,824 (-11%)	15mo	$355,000	$195	35
104 Anderson Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,859 (-9%)	20mo	$247,247	$133	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $111,262
• Equity at exit: $305,398

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $386,902
• Equity at exit: $658,602

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,066 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$807 /mo · $9,685/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-1,161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,535

Max offer price $193,694

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	12d	1	0.90mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	4d	1	0.91mi
813 Central Ave Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,300	$1.14	4d	1	1.04mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	43d	1	1.21mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	17d	1	1.31mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	1.38mi
11524 Rush Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,300	$0.93	43d	1	1.42mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	4d	1	1.44mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	1d	1	1.46mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	19d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,000 Active 367 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,000 Active 366 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,000 Active 365 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 364 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,000 Active 362 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,000 Active 358 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,000 Active 357 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,000 Active 356 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $339,000 Active 353 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,000 Active 352 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 351 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,000 Active 350 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 349 DOM
14. 2025-12-30
    status Active 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    Step into the heart of Elgin and discover this beautifully maintained single-story gem in the sought-after Parkdale neighborhood. Nestled on a spacious 0.28-acre lot, this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers approximately 2,053 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space—perfect for growing families or anyone craving peace and privacy without sacrificing location. Inside, you'll find a bright and airy layout highlighted by vaulted ceilings in the great room, creating a warm, open feel ideal for entertaining or relaxing. The generous bedrooms, including a comfortable primary suite, offer ample room to unwind. Just minutes from historic downtown Elgin, with easy access to local dining, schools, and major highways, this home truly delivers the best of both worlds—tranquil suburban living with unbeatable convenience. Whether you're putting down roots or seeking a serene retreat, 1127 Robin Road is ready to welcome you home.

15. 2025-12-24
    historical Active Under Contract 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    Step into the heart of Elgin and discover this beautifully maintained single-story gem in the sought-after Parkdale neighborhood. Nestled on a spacious 0.28-acre lot, this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers approximately 2,053 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space—perfect for growing families or anyone craving peace and privacy without sacrificing location. Inside, you'll find a bright and airy layout highlighted by vaulted ceilings in the great room, creating a warm, open feel ideal for entertaining or relaxing. The generous bedrooms, including a comfortable primary suite, offer ample room to unwind. Just minutes from historic downtown Elgin, with easy access to local dining, schools, and major highways, this home truly delivers the best of both worlds—tranquil suburban living with unbeatable convenience. Whether you're putting down roots or seeking a serene retreat, 1127 Robin Road is ready to welcome you home.

16. 2025-09-10
    price $339,000 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    Step into the heart of Elgin and discover this beautifully maintained single-story gem in the sought-after Parkdale neighborhood. Nestled on a spacious 0.28-acre lot, this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers approximately 2,053 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space—perfect for growing families or anyone craving peace and privacy without sacrificing location. Inside, you'll find a bright and airy layout highlighted by vaulted ceilings in the great room, creating a warm, open feel ideal for entertaining or relaxing. The generous bedrooms, including a comfortable primary suite, offer ample room to unwind. Just minutes from historic downtown Elgin, with easy access to local dining, schools, and major highways, this home truly delivers the best of both worlds—tranquil suburban living with unbeatable convenience. Whether you're putting down roots or seeking a serene retreat, 1127 Robin Road is ready to welcome you home.

17. 2025-07-31
    price $370,000 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    Step into the heart of Elgin and discover this beautifully maintained single-story gem in the sought-after Parkdale neighborhood. Nestled on a spacious 0.28-acre lot, this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers approximately 2,053 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space—perfect for growing families or anyone craving peace and privacy without sacrificing location. Inside, you'll find a bright and airy layout highlighted by vaulted ceilings in the great room, creating a warm, open feel ideal for entertaining or relaxing. The generous bedrooms, including a comfortable primary suite, offer ample room to unwind. Just minutes from historic downtown Elgin, with easy access to local dining, schools, and major highways, this home truly delivers the best of both worlds—tranquil suburban living with unbeatable convenience. Whether you're putting down roots or seeking a serene retreat, 1127 Robin Road is ready to welcome you home.

18. 2025-07-22
    price $385,000 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    Step into the heart of Elgin and discover this beautifully maintained single-story gem in the sought-after Parkdale neighborhood. Nestled on a spacious 0.28-acre lot, this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers approximately 2,053 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space—perfect for growing families or anyone craving peace and privacy without sacrificing location. Inside, you'll find a bright and airy layout highlighted by vaulted ceilings in the great room, creating a warm, open feel ideal for entertaining or relaxing. The generous bedrooms, including a comfortable primary suite, offer ample room to unwind. Just minutes from historic downtown Elgin, with easy access to local dining, schools, and major highways, this home truly delivers the best of both worlds—tranquil suburban living with unbeatable convenience. Whether you're putting down roots or seeking a serene retreat, 1127 Robin Road is ready to welcome you home.

19. 2025-07-04
    price $385,001 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    Step into the heart of Elgin and discover this beautifully maintained single-story gem in the sought-after Parkdale neighborhood. Nestled on a spacious 0.28-acre lot, this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers approximately 2,053 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space—perfect for growing families or anyone craving peace and privacy without sacrificing location. Inside, you'll find a bright and airy layout highlighted by vaulted ceilings in the great room, creating a warm, open feel ideal for entertaining or relaxing. The generous bedrooms, including a comfortable primary suite, offer ample room to unwind. Just minutes from historic downtown Elgin, with easy access to local dining, schools, and major highways, this home truly delivers the best of both worlds—tranquil suburban living with unbeatable convenience. Whether you're putting down roots or seeking a serene retreat, 1127 Robin Road is ready to welcome you home.

20. 2025-06-16
    listed $385,000 Active 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    Step into the heart of Elgin and discover this beautifully maintained single-story gem in the sought-after Parkdale neighborhood. Nestled on a spacious 0.28-acre lot, this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers approximately 2,053 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space—perfect for growing families or anyone craving peace and privacy without sacrificing location. Inside, you'll find a bright and airy layout highlighted by vaulted ceilings in the great room, creating a warm, open feel ideal for entertaining or relaxing. The generous bedrooms, including a comfortable primary suite, offer ample room to unwind. Just minutes from historic downtown Elgin, with easy access to local dining, schools, and major highways, this home truly delivers the best of both worlds—tranquil suburban living with unbeatable convenience. Whether you're putting down roots or seeking a serene retreat, 1127 Robin Road is ready to welcome you home.

21. 2023-08-22
    price
22. 2023-08-03
    listed Active
23. 2002-05-22
    historical
24. 2002-01-15
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,685 · $807/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,685 · $807/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$9,685
• − Insurance: −$2,492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,983
• − Management: −$1,983
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$20,207
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,850
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-24 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $339,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $370,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $385,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $385,001 Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-16 Listed $385,000 Unlock MLS
• 2023-08-22 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-08-03 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2002-05-22 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2002-01-15 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,685 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.