13268 Shady Ln · Chesterland, OH
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $713 – $1,323
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 94°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 17 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Schools +7.4/10.0
- Livability +4.2/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$184,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Enjoy One Floor living in this cozy Ranch set on 1.38 Acres! This charming home offers 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, Foyer, Living Room, Bonus/Office, Eat-in Kitchen & 1st floor Laundry Room with newer vinyl flooring. Newer vinyl siding, windows & Roof. 1-car attached garage plus carport. Large yard with shed/outbuilding for additional storage. Newer septic system 2017. Great location. .. .Close to the center of Chester Twp, schools, shopping and just minutes to freeway access! West Geauga Schools.
Key facts
- Newer vinyl siding
- Newer vinyl flooring
- Newer windows
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $991 ($12k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $185k).
- Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.8% in Chesterland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 84/100 on livability (#58 in OH, #835 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
- West Geauga Local (rural): math 83% / reading 86% proficiency, ranked #28 of 656 in OH (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
- Zoned schools: Robert C Lindsey Elementary School (math 92% / reading 88%, grade A+, #19 of 1,584 statewide, top 1%, 461 students, 10% FRL); West Geauga Middle School (math 80% / reading 82%, grade A+, #38 of 654 statewide, top 6%, 491 students, 10% FRL); West Geauga High School (math 67% / reading 92%, grade A-, #35 of 781 statewide, top 6%, 693 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 220 units permitted in Geauga County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Geauga County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- Current owner paid $75k; list at $185k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.54% ✓
- Cap rate
- 12.72%
- Cash-on-cash
- 22.96%
- DSCR
- 2.02
- GRM
- 5.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $234,890
- List price
- $184,900
- Delta
- -21.28%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 3 within 1.0 mi
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 15.9%
- Equity multiple
- 1.64×
- Total profit
- $33,158
- Equity at exit
- $27,569
- IRR
- 24.5%
- Equity multiple
- 3.13×
- Total profit
- $110,235
- Equity at exit
- $15,987
Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 73 Landlord-Friendly
- State Ohio
- 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 44026
- Active inventory
- 34
- Price-to-rent
- 5.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,847 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$970
- Tax from tax record
- −$212 /mo · $2,540/yr
- Insurance
- −$77
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$598
- Net cashflow
- $991
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $1,095 | -5% $1,043 | +0% $991 | +5% $938 | +10% $886 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $766 | -5% $878 | +0% $991 | +5% $1,103 | +10% $1,215 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $1,084 | -0.5pp $1,038 | base $991 | +0.5pp $943 | +1.0pp $894 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $46,225
- Closing costs
- $5,547
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 7 events
-
2026-06-03days on market $184,900 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $184,900 Active 53 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $184,900 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $184,900 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-05-04price $184,900 510-char remark
Show marketing remark (510 chars)
Enjoy One Floor living in this cozy Ranch set on 1.38 Acres! This charming home offers 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, Foyer, Living Room, Bonus/Office, Eat-in Kitchen & 1st floor Laundry Room with newer vinyl flooring. Newer vinyl siding, windows & Roof. 1-car attached garage plus carport. Large yard with shed/outbuilding for additional storage. Newer septic system 2017. Great location. .. .Close to the center of Chester Twp, schools, shopping and just minutes to freeway access! West Geauga Schools.
-
2026-04-10$189,900 Active 510-char remark
Show marketing remark (510 chars)
Enjoy One Floor living in this cozy Ranch set on 1.38 Acres! This charming home offers 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, Foyer, Living Room, Bonus/Office, Eat-in Kitchen & 1st floor Laundry Room with newer vinyl flooring. Newer vinyl siding, windows & Roof. 1-car attached garage plus carport. Large yard with shed/outbuilding for additional storage. Newer septic system 2017. Great location. .. .Close to the center of Chester Twp, schools, shopping and just minutes to freeway access! West Geauga Schools.
-
2017-05-17soldstatus $75,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $2,540 · $212/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,712 · $226/mo
- Expected delta
- +$172/yr (+$14/mo · 6.8%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $34,161
- − Mortgage interest
- −$10,357
- − Property taxes
- −$2,540
- − Insurance
- −$924
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,733
- − Management
- −$2,733
- − Depreciation
- −$5,379
- Taxable income
- $9,494
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$2,279
- After-tax cash flow
- $9,608/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- West Geauga Local
- NCES district ID
- 3904722
- Math proficiency
- 83% ▼ -3.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 86% ▲ 1.00%
- Median HH income
- $76,759
- Composite
- 73.94/100
- National rank
- #166
- State rank
- #28 of 656 in OH
Livability — Chesterland
- Score
- 84/100
- State rank
- #58
- US rank
- #835
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Chesterland, OH
- County
- Geauga · 90,510 people
- City population
- 10,722
- Metro
- Cleveland, OH
- Population (ZIP)
- 10,722
- Household income
- $106,740
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 11.9
Population outlook (Geauga County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 94,919 people
- By 2030
- 94,804 · -0.1%
- By 2040
- 92,641 · -2.4%
- By 2050
- 88,198 · -7.1%
- By 2075
- 79,080 · -16.7%
- By 2100
- 60,856 · -35.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (92%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 92% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 7% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 5% · South Korea
- Languages at home
- 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Korean 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Geauga
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.5% · R 61.7%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -15.4pp · 2024: -24.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.1 2016: R+25.5 2012: R+21.6 2008: R+15.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -121.61%
- Current HPI
- 200.0173
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.98%
- F500 in state
- 48
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 3 | $145B |
|
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| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $49B |
|
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| Financial Services | 3 | $24B |
|
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| Consumer Goods | 2 | $93B |
|
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| Aerospace / Defense | 2 | $47B |
|
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| Utilities | 2 | $33B |
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Price history
+146.5% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-04 Price Changed $184,900 MLSNOW
- 2026-04-10 Listed $189,900 MLSNOW
- 2017-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+2.7%/yrLatest (2025): $2,540 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…